Open Left: Is there anyway that Sarah Palin isn't the Republican nominee in 2012
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  Open Left: Is there anyway that Sarah Palin isn't the Republican nominee in 2012
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Author Topic: Open Left: Is there anyway that Sarah Palin isn't the Republican nominee in 2012  (Read 3079 times)
Poundingtherock
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« on: April 11, 2010, 06:44:40 PM »

Chris Bowers writes:

"If Sarah Palin runs for President, then she will win the Republican nomination.  The rally she is holding today with Michelle Bachmann is amazing, and Obama-like, in it's size..

Anyone who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in Minnesota--in early 2010, no less-- is formidable.   In the specific case of Sarah Palin, it makes her virtually unstoppable.

If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012, I have a difficult time imagining someone else winning the Republican nomination.  While this is pretty good news for Democrats, as Palin polls worse against Obama than almost any other Republican (see also PPP polling), it is also pretty scary.  A continually weak economy--which is very possible--could actually make her President less than three years from now. "

His points are that 1) Huckabee won't run 2) Romney's strength in caucuses is mitigated by her 3) She can raise money through the grassroots 4) if republicans still like her after all this, they'll love her when she's campaigning.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2010, 06:45:04 PM »

Forgot the link:

http://www.openleft.com/diary/18180/is-there-anyway-that-sarah-palin-isnt-the-republican-nominee-in-2012
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2010, 07:08:48 PM »

There's a difference between turning out at a rally for someone and thinking they should be president:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35607.html

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California8429
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2010, 07:11:39 PM »

There's a difference between turning out at a rally for someone and thinking they should be president:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35607.html

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and if she does run, I can pretty much guarantee she isn't the nominee unless really nobody else decides to do it. She isn't even leading in Republican polls. She resigned as governor, does that ring a bell? I don't even think she'd run, resigning was clear...she has closed the door to a 2012 future unless every single american is crying for her to lead the country...not going to happen
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2010, 07:16:37 PM »

There's a difference between turning out at a rally for someone and thinking they should be president:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35607.html

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and if she does run, I can pretty much guarantee she isn't the nominee unless really nobody else decides to do it. She isn't even leading in Republican polls. She resigned as governor, does that ring a bell? I don't even think she'd run, resigning was clear...she has closed the door to a 2012 future unless every single american is crying for her to lead the country...not going to happen

She resigned. Does that mean she resigned because she thought she'd lose three years out? Or was there some other motive? I doubt very seriously her polling firm told her, "Hey chicka, three years out, you're polling in fourth place, beat it."
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2010, 07:21:25 PM »

J. J.'s Third Rule of ElectionsSupposed indicators, crowd size, signs and bumper stickers, letters to the editor, are meaningless in terms of actual voter support, though might be an indicator of campaign organization.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2010, 07:21:30 PM »

That's a nice narrative but I question whether anyone would turn out to see someone unless they were going to vote for that person for President.

Think about it.  Most of the events she goes to requires large ticket pricing and she's still drawing around the same number of people to the events where you have to pay to attend as the current President is when he's offering a free event to attend (I recognize Obama's people will claim that they only gave out a certain number of tickets but that explanation makes no sense as every politician wants as many people to attend as possible)
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California8429
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2010, 07:25:02 PM »

There's a difference between turning out at a rally for someone and thinking they should be president:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35607.html

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and if she does run, I can pretty much guarantee she isn't the nominee unless really nobody else decides to do it. She isn't even leading in Republican polls. She resigned as governor, does that ring a bell? I don't even think she'd run, resigning was clear...she has closed the door to a 2012 future unless every single american is crying for her to lead the country...not going to happen

She resigned. Does that mean she resigned because she thought she'd lose three years out? Or was there some other motive? I doubt very seriously her polling firm told her, "Hey chicka, three years out, you're polling in fourth place, beat it."

I'm saying the resignation shuts off any elected future. She resigned, that kills all credibile for her to run for the presidency, all we'll hear is "how do we know she won't bail on us now". I think she'll pull a lot of weight in who the republican nominee is, but it won't be sarah herself. did didn't complete her term for personal reasons...she was flooded with ethics complaints and couldn't governor while trying to put out the flames of scandals most of which weren't legit
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2010, 10:41:57 PM »

That's a nice narrative but I question whether anyone would turn out to see someone unless they were going to vote for that person for President.

Lots of people love Glenn Beck, and would show up at an event he was speaking at.  Same with Stephen Colbert or Oprah Winfrey or Peyton Manning.  Does that mean that any of these people would be the favorite for either party's nomination for president if they decided to run?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2010, 11:33:09 PM »

Not as many people would turn out to see Manning, Beck, Colbert, or Winfrey speak as you think (the same argument is used about book sales but there really is no comparison between the number of books that Palin sold and anyone else not named Bill Clinton).

Would you really say the same thing about Obama's crowds in 2007?  Were they meaningless?  She's drawing roughly the same amount of people as an unannounced candidate as he was drawing as a candidate.  And Obama as President isn't coming close to drawing the crowds that she's drawing now.

She's polling a lot better than he was in the primary race (and it's not because nobody knew Obama either...plenty of people got to know him from January to October 2007 and he only gained traction later in that year).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2010, 03:19:15 AM »

Palin wont even run.  She is in this clearly for the money.  She will likely have her own show on Fox News in a couple of years. 
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2010, 06:31:52 AM »

My position is that on paper Palin could clearly be the #1 frontrunner, but her organizational competence is highly questionable.  Currently she uses her Facebook in order to launch petty attacks on all kinds of people, as well as ghostwritten diatribes.   I'm not sure if she could hire the best people, and let them do their best job. 
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segwaystyle2012
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« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2010, 04:51:33 PM »

Palin won't be my nominee.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2010, 05:39:47 PM »

She just wants the attention, she won't run though.
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shua
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« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2010, 09:43:07 PM »

no, she's got such fire and charisma it's inevitable!

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OhioDem
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« Reply #15 on: April 15, 2010, 05:48:01 AM »

Only if other, more credible people enter into the 2012. I think that Sarah gets it if these people take a pass for the open race in 2016, and let the party go for a sacrificial lamb.

Either that, or she goes third party, knowing full well that she won't win, but at the same time gets all of the attention and all of the money and keeps the teabaggers loyal to her.
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sbos_wx
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« Reply #16 on: April 15, 2010, 08:05:33 AM »

I sure hope Palin isn't the Republican nominee. I would rather Romney or Brown. Too early for Brown to run though. I get a bad vibe off Palin. I feel like she is somebody's puppet.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #17 on: April 15, 2010, 08:29:30 AM »

I've been following Bowers for some time since he first appeared at MyDD to ruin the Democrats' chances against Mike Fitzpatrick (Ginny Schrader, lol). Frankly, he's an idiot—always was, always will be. He has no knowledge of the inner workings of the Republican Party, and no concept of how the party as a whole thinks.

He really has no credibility at all with stuff like this. And barely has any with politics in general.

There is no conceivable way that Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee for President. Even if she runs. The GOP electorate is conservative, not stupid.
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DS0816
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« Reply #18 on: April 15, 2010, 09:50:43 AM »

The GOP electorate is conservative, not stupid.

There are plenty of GOPs who are not conservative and plenty stupid.

The party cares about winning … and nothing else.

So if Sarah Palin is the one … they'll support her.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2010, 12:25:13 PM »

The party cares about winning … and nothing else.

If the party cares about winning, then Palin won't be the nominee. Case closed!
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paul718
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« Reply #20 on: April 15, 2010, 02:55:49 PM »


Only if other, more credible people enter into the 2012. I think that Sarah gets it if these people take a pass for the open race in 2016, and let the party go for a sacrificial lamb.

I despise this term in its present context.
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DS0816
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« Reply #21 on: April 15, 2010, 08:24:33 PM »


If the party cares about winning, then Palin won't be the nominee. Case closed!

The 2012 Republican primaries are over?
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Oedipus Rex
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« Reply #22 on: April 16, 2010, 08:30:39 PM »

Sarah Palin could triangulate herself into a Republican nomination, but there's no way she could defeat Obama unless there's a drastic change in events. 

Huckabee ha s the potential to beat Obama, as the kind of guy who doesn't have many haters and doesn't follow the pompous status quo of the GOP.
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Derek
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« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2010, 12:26:08 AM »

I think alot of Republicans will be too afraid to vote for her in the primaries because of what the media is already plotting to do to her.  Whoever the nominee is will have it bad enough from the press. I'd like to see her in office, but it's a long shot throgh the primaries.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2010, 02:32:08 AM »

Sarah Palin could triangulate herself into a Republican nomination, but there's no way she could defeat Obama unless there's a drastic change in events. 

Huckabee ha s the potential to beat Obama, as the kind of guy who doesn't have many haters and doesn't follow the pompous status quo of the GOP.

He's likeable I guess, but his status as a religious nutjob won't help at all if he becomes the nominee.
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