Open Left: Is there anyway that Sarah Palin isn't the Republican nominee in 2012

[Poundingtherock]

Chris Bowers writes:

"If Sarah Palin runs for President, then she will win the Republican nomination.  The rally she is holding today with Michelle Bachmann is amazing, and Obama-like, in it's size..

Anyone who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in Minnesota--in early 2010, no less-- is formidable.   In the specific case of Sarah Palin, it makes her virtually unstoppable.

If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012, I have a difficult time imagining someone else winning the Republican nomination.  While this is pretty good news for Democrats, as Palin polls worse against Obama than almost any other Republican (see also PPP polling), it is also pretty scary.  A continually weak economy--which is very possible--could actually make her President less than three years from now. "

His points are that 1) Huckabee won't run 2) Romney's strength in caucuses is mitigated by her 3) She can raise money through the grassroots 4) if republicans still like her after all this, they'll love her when she's campaigning.

[Poundingtherock]

Forgot the link:

http://www.openleft.com/diary/18180/is-there-anyway-that-sarah-palin-isnt-the-republican-nominee-in-2012

[Poundingtherock]

That's a nice narrative but I question whether anyone would turn out to see someone unless they were going to vote for that person for President.

Think about it.  Most of the events she goes to requires large ticket pricing and she's still drawing around the same number of people to the events where you have to pay to attend as the current President is when he's offering a free event to attend (I recognize Obama's people will claim that they only gave out a certain number of tickets but that explanation makes no sense as every politician wants as many people to attend as possible)

[Poundingtherock]

Not as many people would turn out to see Manning, Beck, Colbert, or Winfrey speak as you think (the same argument is used about book sales but there really is no comparison between the number of books that Palin sold and anyone else not named Bill Clinton).

Would you really say the same thing about Obama's crowds in 2007?  Were they meaningless?  She's drawing roughly the same amount of people as an unannounced candidate as he was drawing as a candidate.  And Obama as President isn't coming close to drawing the crowds that she's drawing now.

She's polling a lot better than he was in the primary race (and it's not because nobody knew Obama either...plenty of people got to know him from January to October 2007 and he only gained traction later in that year).