Richard Nixon vs. George Wallace, 1972

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Let's say George Wallace doesn't get shot and goes on to narrowly win the nomination at a convention nastier than in 1968. You pick Wallace's VP (and if you think there'd be a third party candidacy, you're welcome to come up with that too). How does the map look on election day?

[Bo]

Nixon wins everything or almost everything outside the South. Wallace's VP might be Happy Chandler, while Nixon's would be Agnew. In short, Nixon wins in a giant landslide. Will make a map later.

[justW353]

Wallace wouldn't even win DC. 

[Dancing with Myself]

Nixon/Agnew-441
Wallace/Gore- 97 (Gore does not lose in this scenario)

[justW353]

I really don't see Wallace winning DC.  I feel I was generous by giving him 50% there.

[redcommander]

I really don't see Wallace winning DC.  I feel I was generous by giving him 50% there.

In 72 it would be possible. Nixon won in RL about 25% of the African American Vote in 72, so if Wallace became the nominee of the Democratic Party which Blacks had begun to identify with racial equality, I could see enough bolting and pulling the lever for Nixon in DC.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

368-170

[SingingAnalyst]

A Gallup Nixon-Wallace matchup in 1972 found Nixon leading 69-23, including a 56-35 lead in the South, a 68-15 lead among Blacks, and an 84-12 lead among voters 18-20 years old.

Wallace 16 EV / 34%
Nixon 522 EV / 63%

[Thunderbird is the word]

It would destroy the Democratic Party, though I imagine that a left wing third party would emerge in this election.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

It would destroy the Democratic Party, though I imagine that a left wing third party would emerge in this election.

Perhaps Eugene McCarthy?

[Thunderbird is the word]

It would destroy the Democratic Party, though I imagine that a left wing third party would emerge in this election.

Perhaps Eugene McCarthy?

Probably, I imagine a lot of liberal Democrats would also refuse to endorse the Wallace ticket.

[Blair]

Would Liberal democrats stay at home, vote Nixon or run a 3rd party?

[Thunderbird is the word]

Would Liberal democrats stay at home, vote Nixon or run a 3rd party?

Definitely a third party, maybe a permanent one.

[SingingAnalyst]

Would Liberal democrats stay at home, vote Nixon or run a 3rd party?

Definitely a third party, maybe a permanent one.

Good point. Maybe something like this.

Wallace 30% / 32 EV
Nixon 55% / 475 EV
McCarthy 14% / 31 EV

[Dr. Cynic]

Nah, I think they would have just stayed at home or even voted for Nixon. Nixon was assured victory in this race.

I dunno. They were pissed in 68. If they were saddled with a worse candidate in 72, I can see a breakaway. They'd be far too angry to stay home with Wallace and most liberals despised Nixon.