Texas is getting 4 seats in reapportionment

[jimrtex]

My quick look at the projected numbers with a 36-seat delegation should make this a given. I actually see two solidly Hispanic districts in Houston/Harris. One is CD-29, and it would be a fan shape heading out east from downtown between the Beaumont Hwy and Mykawa Rd out to Pasadena and South Houston. The parts of Harris east and north of that now in CDs 2, 22, and 29 would form one of the new CDs.

The west side of Houston is interesting as well. I could not form 2 Black-majority districts, but I could make 1 Black and 1 Hispanic district. CD-9 would remain Black-majority by picking up the part of CD-18 through downtown and north on the east side of US-59. The remaining part of CD-18 on the NW side could combine with the part of current CD-29 on the west side of US-59. That new CD-18 should approach 60% Hispanic.

According to the 2008 ACS, both CD 9 and 18 are now plurality Hispanic:

CD 9: 40% Hispanic, 36% Black, 13% Anglo, 9% Asian, 2% other.
CD 18: 41% Hispanic, 38% Black, 16% Anglo, 4% other.
CD 29: 74% Hispanic, 15% Anglo, 9% Black, 2% other.

None of the three really don't have much of an excess population, even for 36 districts, so you would have to do some careful re-arrangement to get CD 18 an effective Hispanic majority, pulling in a lot of separate areas.

[Derek]

I'm thinking of it like this. Republicans should be very happy at the EV added to TX, FL, AZ, SC, NC, GA, and UT.

Texas +4
Florida +2
Arizona +2
South Carolina +1
North Carolina +1
Georgia +1
Nevada +1
Utah +1
Oregon +1
California -1
Pennsylvania -1
Michigan -1
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Minnesota -1
Missouri -1
Louisiana -1
New Jersey -1
Massachusetts -1
New York -2
Ohio -2

[muon2]

I'm thinking of it like this. Republicans should be very happy at the EV added to TX, FL, AZ, SC, NC, GA, and UT.

Texas +4
Florida +2
Arizona +2
South Carolina +1
North Carolina +1
Georgia +1
Nevada +1
Utah +1
Oregon +1
California -1
Pennsylvania -1
Michigan -1
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Minnesota -1
Missouri -1
Louisiana -1
New Jersey -1
Massachusetts -1
New York -2
Ohio -2

This looks more like my pre-recession projections. Are they based on any specific data?

[jimrtex]

Map of Texas congressional districts, showing deviation from ideal - based on 35 districts

Based on region:

DFW: +759 (9 districts)
Houston: +570 (8-1/2 district, CD-10 deviation split between Houston and Central)
Central: +547 (4-1/2 district)
South Texas/Border: +272 (6 districts)
East: +1 (1)
West: -67 (3 districts)

Texas redistricting

[Conservative frontier]

I stand by my statement that GOP is doomed. Texas is obviously trending leftwards at a fast rate. As is Georgia, South and North Carolina, along with Arizona. Florida is losing people, mainly white democrats, but cubans are trending democratic hard.

Our base in the North is long gone. Also, to kick the dead elephant more, Arkansas and West Incestginia will most likely fall back into democratic hands.

 Sooner or later the Moderates in the Dakotas, and Montana will realize the GOP is not moderate and will vote 50-50 in presidential elections.

And, if the GOP in Alaska continues to get handcuffed and thrown onto the one-way trip to prison, then we'll lose there too.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I stand by my statement that GOP is doomed. Texas is obviously trending leftwards at a fast rate. As is Georgia, South and North Carolina, along with Arizona. Florida is losing people, mainly white democrats, but cubans are trending democratic hard.

Our base in the North is long gone. Also, to kick the dead elephant more, Arkansas and West Incestginia will most likely fall back into democratic hands.

 Sooner or later the Moderates in the Dakotas, and Montana will realize the GOP is not moderate and will vote 50-50 in presidential elections.

And, if the GOP in Alaska continues to get handcuffed and thrown onto the one-way trip to prison, then we'll lose there too.

The GOP can survive and even thrive, if it is willing to change at the fundamental level.

[Derek]

such a blessing

[Derek]

  Re: Texas is getting 4 seats in reapportionment
« Reply #56 on: March 20, 2010, 07:50:29 pm »   

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Quote from: JC on March 20, 2010, 07:48:38 pm
I stand by my statement that GOP is doomed. Texas is obviously trending leftwards at a fast rate. As is Georgia, South and North Carolina, along with Arizona. Florida is losing people, mainly white democrats, but cubans are trending democratic hard.

Our base in the North is long gone. Also, to kick the dead elephant more, Arkansas and West Incestginia will most likely fall back into democratic hands.

 Sooner or later the Moderates in the Dakotas, and Montana will realize the GOP is not moderate and will vote 50-50 in presidential elections.

And, if the GOP in Alaska continues to get handcuffed and thrown onto the one-way trip to prison, then we'll lose there too.




The GOP can survive and even thrive, if it is willing to change at the fundamental level. 
 Report to moderator  Logged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I would remind you that
extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!   
And let me remind you also that
moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!
~Senator Barry M. Goldwater

The best quote by a candidate ever? ^^

[Padfoot]

  Re: Texas is getting 4 seats in reapportionment
« Reply #56 on: March 20, 2010, 07:50:29 pm »   

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Quote from: JC on March 20, 2010, 07:48:38 pm
I stand by my statement that GOP is doomed. Texas is obviously trending leftwards at a fast rate. As is Georgia, South and North Carolina, along with Arizona. Florida is losing people, mainly white democrats, but cubans are trending democratic hard.

Our base in the North is long gone. Also, to kick the dead elephant more, Arkansas and West Incestginia will most likely fall back into democratic hands.

 Sooner or later the Moderates in the Dakotas, and Montana will realize the GOP is not moderate and will vote 50-50 in presidential elections.

And, if the GOP in Alaska continues to get handcuffed and thrown onto the one-way trip to prison, then we'll lose there too.




The GOP can survive and even thrive, if it is willing to change at the fundamental level. 
 Report to moderator  Logged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I would remind you that
extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!   
And let me remind you also that
moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!
~Senator Barry M. Goldwater

The best quote by a candidate ever? ^^

In response to your "best candidate quote ever" might I remind you how that particular candidate faired:



Not exactly a resounding victory for "extremism in the defense of liberty."