Retail Sales increase sharply in March
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  Retail Sales increase sharply in March
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HoffmanJohn
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« on: April 14, 2010, 11:42:30 AM »

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/retail-sales-increase-sharply-in-march.html

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.6% from February to March (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.6% from March 2009 (easy comparison).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

The red line shows retail sales ex-gasoline and shows the increase in final demand ex-gasoline has been sluggish.

Retail sales are up 8.3% from the bottom, but still off 4.4% from the peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.3% on a YoY basis (7.6% for all retail sales). The year-over-year comparisons are easy now since retail sales collapsed in late 2008. Retail sales bottomed in December 2008.

Here is the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.2 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 7.6 percent (±0.5%) above March 2009. Total sales for the January through March 2010 period were up 5.5 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The January to February 2010 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.5 percent (±0.3%).
This is a strong retail sales report.
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phk
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2010, 02:18:42 PM »

I'm going to be interested in what the news for April says.

Lots of indicators are going positive though.
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Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.
HoffmanJohn
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« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2010, 02:49:57 PM »

I'm going to be interested in what the news for April says.

Lots of indicators are going positive though.

I thought retail sales would be going down because of the downward trend in consumer credit. What indicators do you think I should be looking at? Normally I just look at unemployment claims in order to tell me where the labor market is headed.
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