It's an anti-incumbent vote, with the public at large knowing very little about any of the Republican candidates.
Based on that, it is hard to tell how the race will turn out yet. A Republican running for statewide office in California generally cannot win on anti-incumbent sentiment alone.
Campbell has what it takes to win, imo, but it's going to be that much harder to beat a democrat in a federal race, rather than a statewide race. He would have had a much easier time becoming governor. Whitman is a worse candidate than him and even she has a good chance of becoming governor, and depending on how Brown runs, she might even be the favorite.
