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Author Topic: Vepres' FINAL House Prediction Thread  (Read 6935 times)
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« Reply #25 on: July 11, 2010, 03:42:35 pm »
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PA-07 as Tossup/Tilt GOP???  NOPE!  I'd have it Tilt/Lean Dem if anything.
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« Reply #26 on: July 11, 2010, 04:34:12 pm »
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PA-07 as Tossup/Tilt GOP???  NOPE!  I'd have it Tilt/Lean Dem if anything.

I actually somewhat agree with Vepres' rating of that race.  If Sestak hadnt stupidly run for Senate and ran for reelection, it would have been Likely D or maybe not even on any lists. 
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« Reply #27 on: July 11, 2010, 04:46:16 pm »
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I think NM-02 should be Lean or Likely GOP.  I really don't see Harry Teague pulling through this one.
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« Reply #28 on: July 11, 2010, 05:33:26 pm »
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PA-07 as Tossup/Tilt GOP???  NOPE!  I'd have it Tilt/Lean Dem if anything.

I actually somewhat agree with Vepres' rating of that race.  If Sestak hadnt stupidly run for Senate and ran for reelection, it would have been Likely D or maybe not even on any lists. 

Stupidly? His chances aren't any worse than 50/50. I could sort of see that argument back when Specter seemed likely to win the primary, but since Sestak trounced him relatively easily, it doesn't hold much now.
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« Reply #29 on: July 11, 2010, 06:28:02 pm »
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PA-07 as Tossup/Tilt GOP???  NOPE!  I'd have it Tilt/Lean Dem if anything.

I actually somewhat agree with Vepres' rating of that race.  If Sestak hadnt stupidly run for Senate and ran for reelection, it would have been Likely D or maybe not even on any lists. 

Stupidly? His chances aren't any worse than 50/50. I could sort of see that argument back when Specter seemed likely to win the primary, but since Sestak trounced him relatively easily, it doesn't hold much now.

I'm gonna have to agree.  Sestak is the better nominee for the Senate.  Believe me.  Once his name gets out better, Toomey will have a much tougher battle.  And if the national environment tilts even slightly in the Democrats' favor, Sestak should walk away with the win.  Specter has made too many enemies. 

Mr. Phips, you can't forget that Obama virtually massacred McCain in this district and Pat Meehan is showing some stains.  It would take a strong GOP enviornment for him to prevail.  I see this as going Bryan Lentz's way.
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« Reply #30 on: July 11, 2010, 06:35:45 pm »
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So far, it looks like Toomey has the advantage, though.  Look at the fund-raising discrepancy:

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=PAS1&cycle=2010

Plus, the fact that Corbett is going to run up some huge numbers isn't helping Sestak.  He needs a little luck to beat Toomey at this point.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2010, 07:28:36 pm by Ronnie »Logged

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« Reply #31 on: July 12, 2010, 06:39:43 am »
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FL-22 is one of the most polarized districts in the country, and West has been raising ridiculous amounts of money (thanks to BaseConnect, although he seems to be the one candidate they let keep most of the money). I think it's fair to call it a tossup.
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« Reply #32 on: July 12, 2010, 05:57:20 pm »
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FL-22 is one of the most polarized districts in the country, and West has been raising ridiculous amounts of money (thanks to BaseConnect, although he seems to be the one candidate they let keep most of the money). I think it's fair to call it a tossup.

Are elderly Jewish voters really going to vote for an eccentric African American over one of their own?
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« Reply #33 on: July 21, 2010, 07:53:53 pm »
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New updates!
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« Reply #34 on: August 13, 2010, 10:15:16 pm »
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Updated. Mainly some fine-tuning from my last update.
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« Reply #35 on: August 17, 2010, 11:18:06 am »
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Some commentary:

Though I am generally rooting for the GOP over the Democrats this year, I was skeptical that Republicans could take back the House with a relatively significant majority. I have predicted a Republican wave basically all year. Not only has my prediction been validated, but in fact it may be too easy on the Democrats.

Tip O'Neill used to say that "all politics is local". In most cases, he is correct. For example, look at the Democrats that have represented solidly Republican districts for years without a serious challenge. However, sometimes all politics are not local. Indeed, in the past two election cycles, popular incumbents have been defeated because of their party. Lincoln Chafee is the obvious example. Despite being relatively well liked in his state, and being a liberal Republican, Chafee was defeated because of the 'R' next to his name.

If people are dissatisfied with the incumbent party enough, the elections will become partially nationalized. A referendum on the incumbents, as some would say. This year looks like one of those years, where waves often occur. I no longer believe this will be an ordinary wave. No, I am beginning to think a Republican tsunami might be coming.

The Pollster.com generic ballot average has Republicans six points ahead. Gallup has them at 50% for the first time in the company's history, and even Democratic-leaning pollsters show Republicans leading by a few points. Now, take into account the fact that if a likely voter screen is put on the Gallup poll, Republicans lead by 12%! Only making matters worse for Democrats is the huge enthusiasm gap between the two parties' voters, with Republicans being far more enthusiastic.

Finally, Republicans almost always do better than the generic ballots suggest come election day. Some say that you essentially add five points to the Republican totals, and that is a fairly accurate prediction of the election.

People are angry. They're angry that the economy is essentially stagnate. They're angry that jobs are harder to come by. They're angry that large corporations and the rich are well off even in these times. They're angry that the deficit is so large. And it is the Democrats who are in charge.

Many voters are thinking, "I'm as mad as Hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore!"

Indeed, this election may greatly surpass 1994 in terms of Republican waves.
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« Reply #36 on: August 17, 2010, 11:18:49 am »
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By the way, now that the election is coming close, I'll be giving my comments on all the individual races I see as competitive soon.
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« Reply #37 on: August 28, 2010, 02:50:59 pm »
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Updated! Comments on my ratings:

Republican Seats (Dem Targets)

Removed
AL-05: A white southern district. Democrats won't be picking-up any of these this year.

AZ-03: I just can't see the Democrats winning this conservative district in such a strong Republican year, especially with immigration in the backdrop.

KS-04: Goyle doesn't stand a chance. The climate is simply too Republican.

NE-02: Even though Obama won the district, Lee Terry hasn't done anything to offend voters in his district, unlike Bachmann. This district still leans conservative, and I can't see it falling this year.

OH-12: More of a gut feel than anything. Ohio seems to be trending very strongly towards Republicans this year, and I can't see this seat falling.

SC-02: A white southern district. Democrats won't be picking-up any of these this year.

Likely Democrat
MN-06: I would almost say this seat isn't competitive, but you never know with Bachmann. Still, it has a strong conservative-lean, and the environment is very favorable to her.

OH-02: This district will almost certainly keep the Republican, but it's bizarre voting behavior in the past keeps me from removing it.

WA-08: As a moderate Republican who survived 2006 and 2008, Reichert will likely win reelection. However, Obama did win the district, and Washington isn't exactly a conservative state, so I hesitate to remove it yet.

Lean Republican
CA-03: While Lungren barely won in 2008, this year is far more favorable to his party, and as a relatively powerful House member, he should get as much support as he wants.

PA-06: The Republicans held this in 2008 despite Obama wining the district, and Pennsylvania Republicans are probably going to have a very good election night. Thus, Gerlach is the heavy favorite.

PA-15: Same as above.

Toss-up; Tilt Republican
IL-10: Dold has had strong fundraising and has proven to be a strong campaigner. He has a slight edge.

Pure Toss-up
HI-01: While the district strongly favors Democrats, Hawaii is historically very pro-incumbent, and Djou isn't exactly a far-right person.

Toss-up; Tilt Democratic
None

Lean Democratic
DE-AL: Urquhart has money and an impressive resume, thus he does have a decent chance of holding this seat. Still, the Democratic nominee is also strong, and the state has leaned Democratic for quite some time.

LA-02: Cao has voted relatively moderately and has the appeal of being an immigrant from a poor country. Plus, as an incumbent, he does have a financial advantage. However, this district heavily leans Democratic, and his victory is largely seen as a fluke that had many factors in Cao's favor.

Likely Democratic
None


Republican Targets (Democratic Held)
Removed
None

Likely Democratic
AR-04: Ross is a long time incumbent and has a weak opponent. Still, Arkansas was one of the few states to swing, not just trend, Republican in 2008.

AZ-07: The district isn't terribly Democratic and I have the sense that, despite all the rhetoric, Republican candidates in the Southwest will do relatively well with Hispanics.

CA-18: Bush won the district in 2004, and given the national trends, this district manages to be slightly competitive.

CA-20:  While Kerry won this district in 2004, it still isn't very Democratic, and national trends are working against Democrats.

CA-47: Though Democrats consistently win this district, Republicans believe they can take it given its location in the historically Republican Orange County. Still, winning here will be a steep uphill climb for Republicans.

GA-02: A white southern district in the current environment. However, Obama won the district and the incumbent seems relatively popular.

GA-12: Another white southern district. However, Barrow has a conservative voting record, and Obama did win this district (which happens to be 2/5 black).

IA-01: Republicans had this district just four years ago, and Iowa Republicans seem to be doing very well in statewide races. However, despite this, the district's liberal lean and Democrat Braley's 30 point margin of victory in 2008 means that he is the heavy favorite.

IL-08: As an affluent white district, the 8th should be a top Republican target. However, current Rep. Melissa Bean defeated an incumbent Republican in 2004 and seems to be fairly popular here. However, given the national environment, she isn't a shoe-in.

IL-17: There is no reason this horribly gerrymandered district should be competitive. However, an internal showed it to be competitive (though internals aren't very reliable). Given the national mood, I can't say that I'm 100% sure it won't be competitive come election day.

KY-03: This is a swing district, and the only one Obama  won in Kentucky, one of only a handful of states to swing towards Republicans in 2008. Challenger Garland has done a decent job raising money, and Chandler is only in his second term. Still, it should be a likely Democratic hold.

MA-06: A conservative (for Massachusetts) district, when the MAGOP has shown it can actually win major elections. Still, I'm very close to removing it from the list.

MN-01: A marginally conservative district that Republicans held just four years ago. Still, the incumbent seems to be in good shape, and Minnesota doesn't seem to have trended as much to the Republicans as other states in the region in the past year.

NC-02: Despite the incident back in June, Etheridge seems to be in good shape. However, Bush did win the district in 2004, so it is by no means a safe district.

NC-07: As a district that McCain won in 2008, it should be competitive. However, McIntyre is a conservative blue dog, and Republicans haven't held the seat at all in the past decade.

NJ-12: Not terribly Democratic, and the state did elect Chris Christie as it Governor. However, the incumbent is the strong favorite.

NY-25: The incumbent is a freshmen, but the District seems to have trended Democratic and it seems that Republicans will have a hard time retaking this seat.

PA-04: Altmire has crafted the image of a moderate, and the district isn't that conservative, though Republicans should have a fighting chance in a district McCain won just two years ago.

PA-17: Holden is a long time incumbent who should have no troubled getting reelected despite his district's Republican lean. However, other veteran Democrats in conservative districts are in trouble this year, so I don't consider it safe yet.

RI-01: The seat is open and the national mood is favorable to Republicans. However, other than that, the Democrats have everything going for them.

UT-02: Matheson has represented Utah for a long time, despite it being one of the most Republican states in the union. While many consider him safe, I think he could get swept out if the national wave  is large enough.

WA-02: The district isn't very Democratic and the national mood should help the Republican. Still, the incumbent is the heavy favorite.

WV-03: Given that it is in one of the few states to swing Republican two years ago, this seat cannot be considered completely safe.

Lean Democratic
AZ-01: Kirkpatrick is a freshmen and immigration won't help her.
CO-03: Salazar is somewhat popular and good fit for the district, but the district is very conservative and he isn't entrenched enough to avoid a strong wave.

CO-07: Perlmutter should be the heavy favorite, given that Obama won this district easily. However, Republican Ryan Frazier is a strong fundraiser and a strong campaigner, and Republicans held the seat four years ago. Additionally, the Republicans seem to be regaining the ground they lost in the suburbs.

CT-04: Given that Himes is a freshmen and that Shays held the district in 2006, and almost did in 2008, and that the momentum is with the Republicans, Himes cannot be considered safe, though he still is the favorite given Connecticut's trends.

CT-05: The most conservative district in Connecticut, CT-05 will inevitably be competitive.

IL-11: Freshmen Democrat plus the Republican trends in the region the past year means this district will be competitive.

MO-03: Carnahan should be okay, but the district isn't very Democratic and Roy Blunt is doing very well statewide.

NC-11: A white conservative district with an incumbent who, while being popular, isn't that entrenched.

NY-13: Staten Island is pretty conservative, but McMahon should be the favorite despite that.

OH-06: While historically Democratic, it is conservative in a region that is struggling economically.

OR-01: Suburbs don't seem to be trending Democratic anymore, and nearby WA-03 is favored to go towards the Republican.

PA-12: While the Democrats held onto this in the special election, I think the Republicans have figured out what they did wrong and will act accordingly.

TN-04: Despite an entrenched Democratic incumbent, it is a white southern district in one of the places that swung Republican.

TX-23: Despite being Hispanic, it is marginally Republican, and my gut says Republicans will do relatively well with Hispanics this year.

VA-09: Same as TN-04.

VA-11: Suburban NOVA district with a freshmen. I bet Republicans will win it in the end, but right now it is still lean Dem given regional trends.

WI-03: Not that Democratic, and Wisconsin Republicans seem to headed for a very good night in November.

WI-08: Republicans held this district back in 2006, and they should have somewhat better odds than in WI-03. Still, I can't call it a toss-up yet.
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« Reply #38 on: August 28, 2010, 02:51:46 pm »
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Toss-up; Tilt Democratic
AZ-05: Tilts Democrat simply because Quale is the nominee. Otherwise, Republicans have a lot going for them.

FL-22: Polarized and held by a Republican in 2006. Florida Republicans will probably do well on election night overall.

IN-02: Another district Republicans held until 2006. Ellsworth isn't a strong candidate for the top of the ticket.

MI-09: Again, held by Republicans until 2006, and the top of ticket (the Gubernatorial nominee) is strong. Plus, the state has been hit hard economically.

MO-04: Conservative white district  with entrenched Democrat. Blunt is doing well, and see no reason why this shouldn't be very competitive.

NJ-03: Freshmen in an area that isn't that Democratic.

NY-20: Upstate New York, freshmen rep. Still more Democratic than other upstate districts though.

OH-13: The Republican seems to be doing well, as does the state party. One of the few opportunities Republicans have to win an urban seat.

OH-16: Freshmen in a suburban area in a state Republicans will no doubt do well in.

OH-18: Conservative, economically hurting, state Republicans doing well.

OR-05: Bush won this district in 2004, and it is probably the second most conservative district in the state.

PA-08: A suburban district Republicans held until 2006. Toomey is a strong top of the ticket.

PA-10: Freshmen Democrat with a strong Republican heading the opposition's ticket.

Pure Toss-up
AL-02: White, southern. Only pure toss-up because the incumbent is basically a Republican.

AZ-08: A conservative district on the border with immigration being an issue.

CA-11: Always believed to lean-Republican. Republicans will do well, relative to the past, in California this year.

FL-02: Conservative, southern, white, with an entrenched Democrat. Boyd is doing notably worse than others in a similar position however.

GA-08: See FL-02.

IA-03: Swing district with a weak incumbent and a strong year for IA Republicans.

ID-01: Despite basically being a Republican, I can't see a Minnick win as more likely than not.

IL-14: Swing district with a two-term incumbent.

IN-09: Conservative, white, relatively new incumbent, poor top of the ticket.

KY-06: Very conservative, swung McCain. See FL-02 and GA-08.

MA-10: Open and relatively conservative, most consider it a toss-up, and so do I.

MI-07: Area is hurting economically, and that one tough nerd will help the Republican.

NC-08: Swing district in the south with a freshmen. 'Nuff said.

NM-01: Swing district with a freshmen with a strong state Republican party this year.

NY-01: Marginally conservative and incumbent doesn't seem to be too strong.

NY-19: Freshmen in a (relatively) conservative upstate district. Strong Democrats atop the ticket keep this as a pure toss-up.

NY-23: Democrats won under weird circumstances, Republicans should have an easy time here. Still, it has been trending Dem.

PA-11: Weak incumbent who almost lost in 2008 of all years.

TX-17: Very conservative district where the incumbent hasn't won by large margins in the past.

WI-07: Open seat in a swing district.

Toss-up; Tilt Republican
CO-04: Very conservative, freshmen representative who voted for healthcare reform.

FL-08: Obnoxious freshmen with little charisma in a swing district. Money won't help him.

FL-24: Freshmen in a conservative southern district.

IN-08: Conservative district that is open in a conservative state.

MD-01: Freshmen in a conservative district who barely won two years ago.

MI-01: Open and conservative.

MS-01: White and southern, national trends should sweep the incumbent out.

ND-AL: Weak incumbent in a very conservative state with no real opposition to the top of the Republicans' ticket.

NH-01: Conservative district in a state that hates big government.
NH-02: See above, except also open.

NV-03: Conservative suburbs in an area that is really hurting.

NY-24: Conservative upstate district with a likeable challenger who almost beat the freshmen incumbent two years ago.

OH-01: This part of Ohio has always been somewhat conservative. I see no reason why the Republican shouldn't be favored.

OH-15: Freshmen Democrat is a place that is hurting economically.

PA-03: Freshmen Democrat in a historically conservative district with Toomey atop the ticket.

PA-07: Swing district in the suburbs that is open. Republicans have regained the momentum in suburbs.

SC-05: Very conservative and white. The incumbent chairs the budget committee in a year when voters are very worried about the deficit. Weak candidate atop the Democratic ticket.

SD-AL: Similar to ND-AL.

TN-08: Swing district, but southern and white in Tennessee in 2010.

VA-02: Conservative, white, weak freshmen incumbent, state is trending Republican again.

VA-05: See above.

WA-03: Republicans seem to have this one. A swing district that Bush won in a state where Republicans could take down a Senate incumbent.

WV-01: Open and very conservative of late.

Lean Republican
AR-01: Very conservative and open in the state that swung very hard to McCain.

KS-03: The Democrat seems to be failing and the district has a natural Republican tilt. Given that Republicans will almost certainly win the Governorship and Senate seat easily, it is hard to see them screwing this one up.

LA-03: Open and white and conservative in a state that swung towards McCain.

NM-02: Weak incumbent in a very conservative district with a strong candidate atop the Republican ticket.

Likely Republican
AR-02: This one is gone. Very conservative and the Democrats nominated a black in this white and, dare I say, intolerant district.

TN-06: Very very conservative. No way Democrats will hold this.

NY-29: Very conservative with a freshmen incumbent who was forced out of office due to a scandal in an area that is not economically well off.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2010, 09:33:59 pm by Vepres »Logged

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« Reply #39 on: August 28, 2010, 04:59:34 pm »
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NY-19: Freshmen in a (relatively) conservative upstate district.

NY-19 doesn't strike me as Upstate, or conservative, or a Freshman for that matter.

Not that tossup isn't the correct designation with a strong challenger.
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« Reply #40 on: August 28, 2010, 07:45:05 pm »
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NY-19: Freshmen in a (relatively) conservative upstate district.

NY-19 doesn't strike me as Upstate, or conservative, or a Freshman for that matter.

Not that tossup isn't the correct designation with a strong challenger.

It strikes me as Westchester, Orange, Putnam and Dutchess counties, the types of areas that I suspect Republicans will probably make strong gains in numbers vis-a-vis the average (just a gut reaction).
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« Reply #41 on: August 28, 2010, 08:39:04 pm »
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I don't disagree.  I think Hall has the hardest general election race of any incumbent south of Arcuri, harder than Bishop's, McMahon's, Murphy's, etc.
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« Reply #42 on: August 29, 2010, 11:54:45 am »
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NY-19: Freshmen in a (relatively) conservative upstate district.

NY-19 doesn't strike me as Upstate, or conservative, or a Freshman for that matter

Two-termer, right, stupid error Tongue

Everybody defines upstate differently, so yeah...
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« Reply #43 on: August 29, 2010, 12:09:50 pm »
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It's outer metropolitan. Which, in this election, may actually be bad news...
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« Reply #44 on: August 29, 2010, 04:15:53 pm »
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AZ-05: Tilts Democrat simply because Quale Schweikert is the nominee. Otherwise, Republicans have a lot going for them.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Vepres
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« Reply #45 on: August 29, 2010, 09:32:45 pm »
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AZ-05: Tilts Democrat simply because Quale Schweikert is the nominee. Otherwise, Republicans have a lot going for them.

Right, Quayle is AZ-3.

Well, your bound to make mistakes when you write over a 100 of these Tongue
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« Reply #46 on: August 30, 2010, 04:23:28 pm »
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Vepres, in one of the recent updates you made you listed KY-03, but talked about Chandler, who's in KY-06. Is that the one you meant? Because I don't think Yarmuth is as much trouble as Chandler is (although KY-03 is the district in the state that went for Obama, not KY-06, so that confused me too).
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« Reply #47 on: August 30, 2010, 04:43:22 pm »
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Vepres, in one of the recent updates you made you listed KY-03, but talked about Chandler, who's in KY-06. Is that the one you meant? Because I don't think Yarmuth is as much trouble as Chandler is (although KY-03 is the district in the state that went for Obama, not KY-06, so that confused me too).


*Bangs head on wall* I just mixed the names up, but KY-03 is correctly placed.
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« Reply #48 on: August 30, 2010, 04:53:14 pm »
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Vepres, in one of the recent updates you made you listed KY-03, but talked about Chandler, who's in KY-06. Is that the one you meant? Because I don't think Yarmuth is as much trouble as Chandler is (although KY-03 is the district in the state that went for Obama, not KY-06, so that confused me too).


*Bangs head on wall* I just mixed the names up, but KY-03 is correctly placed.

*Picks Vepres' head up from the wall* Gotcha. Thanks. Smiley
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« Reply #49 on: August 30, 2010, 07:16:13 pm »
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AZ-05: Tilts Democrat simply because Quale Schweikert is the nominee. Otherwise, Republicans have a lot going for them.

Right, Quayle is AZ-3.

Well, your bound to make mistakes when you write over a 100 of these Tongue

We all understand what you are saying. when you work hard, you always have at least one mistake =)
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 Print 
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