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Author Topic: Vepres' FINAL House Prediction Thread  (Read 6639 times)
Vepres
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« on: April 18, 2010, 12:53:41 pm »
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*Final Prediction*

Democratic Targets (Republican Held)

Likely Republican (4)
FL-12
MN-06
PA-06
PA-15
WA-08

Lean Republican (2)
CA-03
FL-25

Toss-up; Tilt Republican (2)
HI-01
IL-10

Toss-up; Tilt Democratic (0)
None

Lean Democratic (2)
DE-AL
LA-02

Likely Democratic (0)
None

Republican Seats in Play: 10

Potential Republican-held "Sleepers"
AZ-03

Republican Targets (Democratic Held)

Likely Democratic (10)
CA-18
GA-12
MA-06
MI-15
NJ-12
OH-13
OR-01
OR-04
PA-17
UT-02

Lean Democratic (9)
AR-04
KY-03
MA-05
NM-03
NY-04
NY-25
PA-04
WI-03
WV-03

Toss-up; Tilt Democratic (9)
IA-01
IA-02
IA-03
MA-04
MN-01
MO-03
NY-13
NY-22
TX-27

Toss-up; Tilt Republican (63)
AL-02
AZ-07
AZ-08
CA-11
CA-20
CA-47
CO-03
CO-07
CT-04
CT-05
FL-22
GA-02
ID-01
IL-08
IL-14
IL-17
IN-02
IN-09
KY-06
MA-10
ME-01
ME-02
MI-07
MI-09
MN-08
MO-04
MS-04
NC-02
NC-07
NC-08
NC-11
NJ-03
NM-01
NH-02
NY-01
NY-19
NY-20
NY-23
NY-24
OH-06
OH-18
OR-05
PA-08
PA-10
PA-12
RI-01
TN-04
TX-23
VA-09
VA-11
WA-02
WA-09
WV-01

Lean Republican (24)
AR-01
AZ-01
AZ-05
FL-02
FL-08
GA-08
MD-01
MS-01
MI-01
ND-AL
NH-01
NM-02
NV-03
OH-16
PA-07
PA-11
SC-05
SD-AL
TN-08
TX-17
WA-03
WI-07
WI-08

Likely Republican (14)
AR-02
CO-04
FL-24
IL-11
IN-08
KS-03
LA-03
OH-01
OH-15
PA-03
TN-06
NY-29
VA-02
VA-05

Democratic Seats in Play: 129

Potential Democratic-held "Sleepers"
CA-51
CO-02
MN-07
NC-04
NJ-06
NY-05
OH-10
OK-02
PA-13
TN-05
TX-25
TX-28

Total # of Seats in Play (not including sleepers): 139

Current Prediction: 169D - 266R
« Last Edit: October 31, 2010, 01:23:09 pm by Vepres »Logged

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Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2010, 01:02:05 pm »
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I think you should move ND-AL to pure tossup, as many polls had the GOP ahead.
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2010, 01:13:56 pm »
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LA-02 ought to be at least likely Democratic, if not safe Democratic.
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Vepres
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2010, 01:16:33 pm »
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LA-02 ought to be at least likely Democratic, if not safe Democratic.

Yeah, I really wasn't sure about that one TBH. I'll probably move it that way in a future update. What held me back from making it likely was the fact that Cao has raised a lot more money than any of the Democrats in the race.
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2010, 01:19:29 pm »
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GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.
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Vepres
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2010, 08:55:17 pm »
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GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

It's not like it voted for McCain and demographically is Republican or anything Roll Eyes

BTW, it is true the GOP would not regain the house if the election were today.
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2010, 08:59:11 pm »
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GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

It's not like it voted for McCain and demographically is Republican or anything Roll Eyes

Yes, it voted for McCain, the only Republican presidential candidate it has voted for since 1972, and one of the few Republicans it has voted for at all for that time. Even Santorum's weak opponent in 2000 probably won it.

Demographically it is not Republican, quite far from it actually.
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2010, 09:03:43 pm »
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GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

It's not like it voted for McCain and demographically is Republican or anything Roll Eyes

Yes, it voted for McCain, the only Republican presidential candidate it has voted for since 1972, and one of the few Republicans it has voted for at all for that time. Even Santorum's weak opponent in 2000 probably won it.

Demographically it is not Republican, quite far from it actually.

Its been shifting Republican so, 10 yrs ago, that seems rather obvious. It was more Dem then the state at-large, now it is more Republican then the State at-large.
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2010, 11:58:52 pm »
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Murthastan cannot go Republican. That is not possible.
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« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2010, 10:27:53 am »
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GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

It's not like it voted for McCain and demographically is Republican or anything Roll Eyes

Yes, it voted for McCain, the only Republican presidential candidate it has voted for since 1972, and one of the few Republicans it has voted for at all for that time. Even Santorum's weak opponent in 2000 probably won it.

Demographically it is not Republican, quite far from it actually.

Its been shifting Republican so, 10 yrs ago, that seems rather obvious. It was more Dem then the state at-large, now it is more Republican then the State at-large.

Not really. No one disputes Hillary would've won the seat. So the 2008 results clearly reflect only Obama, not the polls.

What makes it so idiotic to calling it "Tilt Republican" is that completely ignores the polls.
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Vepres
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E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2010, 05:32:01 pm »
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GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

It's not like it voted for McCain and demographically is Republican or anything Roll Eyes

Yes, it voted for McCain, the only Republican presidential candidate it has voted for since 1972, and one of the few Republicans it has voted for at all for that time. Even Santorum's weak opponent in 2000 probably won it.

Demographically it is not Republican, quite far from it actually.

Its been shifting Republican so, 10 yrs ago, that seems rather obvious. It was more Dem then the state at-large, now it is more Republican then the State at-large.

Not really. No one disputes Hillary would've won the seat. So the 2008 results clearly reflect only Obama, not the polls.

What makes it so idiotic to calling it "Tilt Republican" is that completely ignores the polls.

Based on fundraising numbers, the enthusiasm is on the right, which is what matters in a special election.
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« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2010, 09:30:23 pm »
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That must be how Ron Paul won the GOP nomination then.

The only ridiculous thing is the whole "Tilt Republican" bit. I wouldn't have thrown a fit if it had simply been "Pure Toss Up" though I would put it at "Tilt Democratic"
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Vepres
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« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2010, 11:31:56 pm »
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That must be how Ron Paul won the GOP nomination then.

The only ridiculous thing is the whole "Tilt Republican" bit. I wouldn't have thrown a fit if it had simply been "Pure Toss Up" though I would put it at "Tilt Democratic"

Well keep in mind that "Tilt Republican" still means either side has a good chance of winning.

The Republican ended last quarter with $300k on hand, while the highest Democrat was at $80k. In terms of net receipts, the difference is proportionately even larger.\

Plus, money is a much bigger deal in a special election, turnout is very different.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2010, 11:36:36 pm by Vepres »Logged

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Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2010, 09:28:31 am »
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GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

It's not like it voted for McCain and demographically is Republican or anything Roll Eyes

Yes, it voted for McCain, the only Republican presidential candidate it has voted for since 1972, and one of the few Republicans it has voted for at all for that time. Even Santorum's weak opponent in 2000 probably won it.

Demographically it is not Republican, quite far from it actually.

Its been shifting Republican so, 10 yrs ago, that seems rather obvious. It was more Dem then the state at-large, now it is more Republican then the State at-large.

Not really. No one disputes Hillary would've won the seat. So the 2008 results clearly reflect only Obama, not the polls.

What makes it so idiotic to calling it "Tilt Republican" is that completely ignores the polls.

No there is a clear trend to the GOP from 2000 (more dem then state) 2004 (The same as the state) to 2008 (More GOP then then State).

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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2010, 09:46:21 pm »
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Boy I feel vindicated now.
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Vepres
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« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2010, 01:40:53 pm »
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Updated my predictions. Lots of changes as I hadn't done this in a while.
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« Reply #16 on: June 25, 2010, 03:28:57 pm »
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Updated my predictions. Lots of changes as I hadn't done this in a while.

What do the carets and asterisks mean?
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« Reply #17 on: June 25, 2010, 04:53:01 pm »
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NY-19 tossup/Tilt Republican, CT-05 and NY-20 only "tilt Democratic"  NJ-12 and OR-01 only lean Democratic?  Come on now.  
« Last Edit: June 25, 2010, 05:00:08 pm by Mr.Phips »Logged
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« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2010, 07:34:44 pm »
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This list has serious flaws.
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Vepres
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E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2010, 08:00:22 pm »
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Updated my predictions. Lots of changes as I hadn't done this in a while.

What do the carets and asterisks mean?

Oops, here ya go.

* Democrat favored move
^ Republican favored move
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Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Vepres
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E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2010, 02:11:09 pm »
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Another update Smiley
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« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2010, 02:29:01 pm »
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KY-03 at only lean Democratic?  That is a pretty Democratic district and the Republican candidate is a joke there. 
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Vepres
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E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #22 on: July 11, 2010, 02:57:13 pm »
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KY-03 at only lean Democratic?  That is a pretty Democratic district and the Republican candidate is a joke there.  

Really? I didn't do much research on individual races, but from what I saw he seemed like a relatively strong candidate. Young, decent looking, conservative (which isn't necessarily a bad thing in this only marginally Democratic district).

Of course, I could be entirely wrong.
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Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Torie
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« Reply #23 on: July 11, 2010, 03:24:10 pm »
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FL 22 is a  toss up? Cook has it as likely Dem. I would mark it lean Dem myself. West is quite the firebrand. I think he may frighten some of the moderate Pubbies in the district, of which there are a considerable number.

If interested, one can watch this now famous, or infamous depending upon your point of view, video of the most charismatic Allen West in action, with one battlefield metaphor after another, rat a tat tat, lock, load, march, take it to the enemy, bang, bang your dead. He certainly isn't dull; he's the guy with whom one would want to be in a foxhole, and not the guy one would want to get mad at you - at all. He could probably snap my neck causing my immediate departure from this mortal coil in about 2 seconds. What do you all think?  

« Last Edit: July 11, 2010, 03:33:00 pm by Torie »Logged
Vepres
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« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2010, 03:28:31 pm »
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FL 22 is a  toss up? Cook has it as likely Dem. I would mark it lean Dem myself. West is quite the firebrand. I think he may frighten some of the moderate Pubbies in the district, of which there are a considerable number.

If interested, one can watch this now famous, or infamous depending upon your point of view, video of the most charismatic Allen West in action, with one battlefield metaphor after another, rat a tat tat, lock, load, march, take it to the enemy, bang, bang your dead. He certainly isn't dull; he's the guy with whom one would want to be in a foxhole, and not the guy one would want to get mad at you - at all. He could probably snap my neck causing my immediate departure from this mortal coil in a about 2 seconds. What do you all think?  



That was an honest mistake actually. I've moved it up a bit.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
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