Vepres' FINAL House Prediction Thread

[Vepres]

Updated.

Most of my moves were based on gut feelings more than anything, and they were all in favor of the Republicans this time. First update for this to be so, I believe.

[Dan the Roman]

MA-05 will fall before MA-06. While on paper they look similar at the national level, ie. they went for Kerry and Obama by near identical margins, the local dynamics are very different.

 While you have to give him credit for throwing his all into this campaign Bill Hudak has been making waves and not good ones. He seems to be an undecided birther, and the Globe has zeroed in on him because Charlie Baker has attended a lot of his events, and this gives them a chance to demand Baker and the rest of the party distance themselves from Hudak. Not to mention he had an Obama=Osama yard sign last year, and has been trying to play the Mosque card in a district where the population is either latte liberals or immigrants.

http://blogs.wickedlocal.com/shorelines/2010/08/16/hudak-hudak-everywhere-for-better-or-worse/

Furthermore Tierney is probably the most popular of Massachusetts congressman, has a good deal of money and crossover support.

MA-05 is a different matter. Tsongas has never been popular, most of the suburbs here resemble those in Brown's district, there is a large working-class white population in the cities which doesn't like Obama. Oh, and there is also a black man on the top of the ticket who badly underperformed here in 2006. Did I mention the leading GOP candidates speaks fluent Spanish and Tsongas and Patrick are both loathed by the Democratic machine in the area that normally brings out Hispanics?

Not necessarily saying MA-06 should be moved off since some of the dynamics are there, but I would be shocked if Tierney won by less than 63%. Tsongas on the other hand might lose, though its doubtful. So it really depends what the list is for.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I doubt any of the Massachusetts races (aside from MA-10, of course) will be within single-digits come election day.

[Vepres]

I doubt any of the Massachusetts races (aside from MA-10, of course) will be within single-digits come election day.

Yeah, I agree.

Thanks for the local perspective Dan MA-05 wasn't even on my radar (not that I think it will fall. If it does, the Republicans will probably gain over 100 seats, so yeah...).

[Torie]

I doubt any of the Massachusetts races (aside from MA-10, of course) will be within single-digits come election day.

Yeah, I agree.

Thanks for the local perspective Dan MA-05 wasn't even on my radar (not that I think it will fall. If it does, the Republicans will probably gain over 100 seats, so yeah...).

Well, on a strictly PVI basis, the GOP taking MA-5 would be their 312th seat (Dem PVI +8), which would leave the Dems with 123 seats.

Moving right along, a 76 seat House GOP gain has a nice ring to it. That might be where we are headed. It looks like at least 55 seats at the moment. We shall see. These House polls coming out are just devastating for the Dems, assuming that they are vaguely real.

[Dan the Roman]

I doubt any of the Massachusetts races (aside from MA-10, of course) will be within single-digits come election day.

Yeah, I agree.

Thanks for the local perspective Dan MA-05 wasn't even on my radar (not that I think it will fall. If it does, the Republicans will probably gain over 100 seats, so yeah...).

I don't really think it will either, but Tsongas is exactly the sort of incumbent who gets into trouble in wave year. And both she and Golcnik are on the air right now, I head a couple of ads the other day on the radio.
I don't re

[Vepres]

Added TX-27 to the likely Democratic column under Republican targets.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Added TX-27 to the likely Democratic column under Republican targets.

Just looked up the Republican running there; he's taking a bold pro-Constitution stance.

[Vepres]

Democrats are royally screwed, and this update reflects that.

[Vepres]

Moved DE-AL to lean Democrat because O'Donnell is the top of the ticket.

[Vepres]

Made a few small changes to my predictions

[Vepres]

Now that election day is drawing near, I have eliminated the pure toss-up category, moving all those seats into one of the 'toss-up; tilt' categories.

[Mr.Phips]

HI-01 at tilt Republican?  Did you see the turnout numbers for that in the primary?  The Democratic candidate had 80,000(100,000 total voted in the Dem primary) votes in the primary alone, while Djou got just 20,000(he was the only candidate in the primary).  If Hanabusa can the votes of her Democratic primary opponent, there is no way Djou even comes close to winning. 

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Plus, he only won 39.4% in the special election..

[tpfkaw]

It must be remembered that Tsongas, with her famous last name, in a heavily Democratic district, just barely eked out a win against an unknown Republican in a special election in the year 2007.

[Хahar 🤔]

It must be remembered that Tsongas, with her famous last name, in a heavily Democratic district, just barely eked out a win against an unknown Republican in a special election in the year 2007.

Randomly throwing out facts without conclusions is kind of silly.

[Vepres]

Made some changes. Most are based on gut feelings, though a handful are based on recent polling.

[they don't love you like i love you]

There is no way DE-AL is only "Tilt Democratic" when the Republican candidate is just as crazy as O'Donnell and Carney leads him by comparable numbers to Coons' lead while he trails in his own internal.

[Vepres]

There is no way DE-AL is only "Tilt Democratic" when the Republican candidate is just as crazy as O'Donnell and Carney leads him by comparable numbers to Coons' lead while he trails in his own internal.

Last I checked it was almost dead heat. Could you link to recent polls?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The only poll that *hasn't* shown it to be a double-digit lead for Carney was an Urquhart internal that had him down by 3.

[Vepres]

The only poll that *hasn't* shown it to be a double-digit lead for Carney was an Urquhart internal that had him down by 3.

Alright, I moved it to lean.

[Dan the Roman]

Move MA-06 to lean Democratic. Tierney's wife just plead guilty to laundering 7 million in online gambling dues for her brother, and some of the money seems to have been donated to his campaign. Its dominating local coverage. I still think Hudak is too insane to win here, but Tierney is clearly wounded enough to go down against even a B candidate.

[Vepres]

Move MA-06 to lean Democratic. Tierney's wife just plead guilty to laundering 7 million in online gambling dues for her brother, and some of the money seems to have been donated to his campaign. Its dominating local coverage. I still think Hudak is too insane to win here, but Tierney is clearly wounded enough to go down against even a B candidate.

I would have to agree with that. Rating changed accordingly.

[HappyWarrior]

How is MD 01 rated anything but a toss-up?  Our most recent internal poll showed us up by 6 and every independent poll have shown us being within 2 points no matter which candidate is ahead.

[Vepres]

How is MD 01 rated anything but a toss-up?  Our most recent internal poll showed us up by 6 and every independent poll have shown us being within 2 points no matter which candidate is ahead.

I just can't see Kratovil winning in a year like this. True, polls have shown this to be closer, but again, I just can't see Kratovil winning. I would note that Rothenberg, CQ Politics, and Crystal ball all agree with me.