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| | |-+  Vepres' FINAL House Prediction Thread
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Author Topic: Vepres' FINAL House Prediction Thread  (Read 6836 times)
Vepres
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E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #75 on: October 17, 2010, 03:02:50 pm »
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Alright, the final campaign finance reports are in, so I've made changes. Some thoughts:

Democratic Targets (Republican Held)

CA-03: I almost moved this to Toss-up; Tilt R, but Lungren has lots of cash, so he is still the favorite in my view.

DE-AL: The Democrat is raking in so much money, and there is a weak top of the ticket on the Republican side. I'm very close to moving this to likely D.

LA-02: Cao, being an incumbent, has had impressive fundraising numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if he narrowly survived, but he's still the underdog.


Republican Targets (Democratic Held)

CA-10: Removed from list. Probably shouldn't have been here in the first place Tongue

CA-18: Moved from Lean D to Likely D. Cardoza had impressive fundraising numbers, his opponent seems like a weak one, and polls show him doing well.

CA-20: Moved from Lean D to Toss-up; Tilt D. In contrast to CA-18, the Republican has had good fundraising numbers, and polls haven't been as friendly to the incumbent as in CA-18.

CO-04: Moved from Lean R to Likely R. Cory Gardener, the challenger, is keeping up in terms of fundraising, and outside groups and the RCCC are just running so many ads against Markey.

FL-22: Moved from Toss-up; Tilt D to Toss-up; Tilt R: The Republican challenger has more money than the incumbent Democrat, and this seat is very polarized.

IA-02: Moved from Likely D to LeanD. The Republican challenger had good fundraising numbers, almost comparable to the Democratic incumbent's. Republicans will win easily in both the Senate and Gubernatorial races, which could have a down ballot effect.

MA-04: Moved from Likely D to Lean D: WHAT!?!?!?!?! You may ask. Recently, money has just been pouring in for the Republican as the GOP would just love to knock Frank, a senior Democrat from Masschusetts, out. I'm pretty sure Frank should hold this, but he isn't exactly a charismatic figure.

MO-03: Moved from Lean D to Toss-up; Tilt D. The Republican challenger has raised almost as much money as Carnahan. The Midwest seems to be swinging very heavily against the Democrats this year.

MS-04: Moved from Lean D to Toss-up; Tilt D. Taylor happens to be a Democrat in a very Republican district (in the white south, no less). Though conservative and established, he had pitiful fundraising numbers for an endangered incumbent. His opponent has almost as much cash on hand.

OH-06: Moved from Toss-up; Tilt D to Toss-up; Tilt R. The Republicans are running lots of ads against Wilson. In a district McCain won, in a more nationalized election, I believe he will lose.

OH-13: Moved from Toss-up; Tilt R to Likely D. Scandals can do that to ya.

PA-12: Moved from Toss-up; Tilt D to Toss-up; Tilt R. Critz has less COH than his opponent, and I'm sure Republicans are looking for some revenge. Pennsylvania has been trending heavily to the Republicans this year.

RI-01: Moved from Lean D to Toss-up; Tilt D. The seat is open, and Rhode Island has an independent streak (albeit a very Democratic one). Loughlin could very well pull this off.

TX-23: This district was once seen as a likely Democratic hold. However, the Republican is Hispanic, and he actually has more CoH than the incumbent.

WI-07: Moved from Toss-up; Tilt R to Lean R. Wisconsin Democrats are looking to have a bad year. The Midwest is trending Republican, the Republican has better fundraising, and the seat is open.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Vepres
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E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #76 on: October 24, 2010, 12:50:53 pm »
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Well, here's my second-to-last update! Mostly just a little tweaking here and there.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Torie
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« Reply #77 on: October 24, 2010, 02:22:36 pm »
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GOP +73 seats before you get to the tossups, if I counted right. Wow. Or wait - you don't have any tossups!  Tongue
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Vepres
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E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #78 on: October 24, 2010, 02:43:26 pm »
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GOP +73 seats before you get to the tossups, if I counted right. Wow. Or wait - you don't have any tossups!  Tongue

Toss-ups are for pussies! Real men predict the direction of every race!
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Vepres
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E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #79 on: October 31, 2010, 01:25:32 pm »
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Well, there it is. Are many bold, even audacious? Yes. Could I potentially be far off? Yes.

However, I believe I will be pretty accurate. I have followed these races for months, looked at FEC disclosures, etc. My gut says I'm right, we'll see...
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Torie
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« Reply #80 on: October 31, 2010, 01:31:26 pm »
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87 Dem seats fall eh?
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Vepres
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Political Matrix
E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #81 on: October 31, 2010, 01:50:18 pm »
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87 Dem seats fall eh?

Roughly Grin
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #82 on: October 31, 2010, 02:03:49 pm »
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Vepres
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Political Matrix
E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #83 on: October 31, 2010, 02:06:51 pm »
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HA!

I'll admit, the total number of seats doesn't feel right to me, but when I look at individual races, they all do feel right and they add up to the total, so...

Keep in mind that this is my first go at House predictions, so I have no experience to go on (I didn't follow the 2008 races)
« Last Edit: October 31, 2010, 02:08:44 pm by Vepres »Logged

LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Vepres
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Posts: 8103
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.26, S: -7.39

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« Reply #84 on: October 31, 2010, 02:21:38 pm »
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Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature. If they get more than 75, however, I'll prominently gloat about my prediction skills in my signature. If they gain exactly 75, a hole will be ripped in time and space, destroying the universe.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #85 on: October 31, 2010, 04:16:21 pm »
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If your prediction is anything close to true, the Democratic party is simply finished for a generation. 
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