Allen Boyd losing BIG again GOP frontrunner(FL-02) (Internal R poll - Tarrance)

[ajc0918]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/FL02TarranceGroupmemo.pdf

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52-37!! Bye Bye Boyd.
and only 20% know who Southerland is... lol...

[Lunar]

Internal poll?  Who is tarence group?

[ajc0918]

Internal poll?  Who is tarence group?

Yeah, for NRCC

[War on Want]

Big surprise: Democrat who voted for HCR in southern, conservative district does poorly in internal poll.

[muon2]

Internal poll?  Who is tarence group?

The Tarrance Group is one of the best known national pollsters for the GOP. They are also known for their long-running partnership with Dem pollsters Lake Research to create the Battleground Polls.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would say then its about R+4 or 5 right now then.

[Lunar]

Internal poll?  Who is tarence group?

The Tarrance Group is one of the best known national pollsters for the GOP. They are also known for their long-running partnership with Dem pollsters Lake Research to create the Battleground Polls.

Any possibility of something fishy going on, like letting the voters know before they answer on Boyd, how Boyd voted on HCR?

(I spelled that pretty badly, I was on my phone)

[Torie]

With another poll of whatever merit suggesting Edwards may well be done, perhaps this might portend that it might be Blue Dog hell this November?  Maybe things have become that Manichean in US partisan politics for the moment. 

[Sam Spade]

Internal polls.  Caveat emptor.  

Tarrance Group and POS are two of the biggies for Republican candidates, so they're legit, up to a point, of course.

My point is somewhat similar to 2006 and 2008 - obviously these numbers overstate the Republican to a certain extent, and some of their conclusions are probably dubious, but when they show the Republican up 15, they should not be completely ignored (as opposed to showing the Republican "close", for example within 5 or something).  Just replace all that with Democrat if it helps you visualize better.

Just fyi on another point - Edwards has kinda refused to release his own polls, which suggests that he recognizes there is truth in what is being said.

[Lunar]

Just fyi on another point - Edwards has kinda refused to release his own polls, which suggests that he recognizes there is truth in what is being sai.

Indeed.  There's no reason for a campaign to release a competing internal poll showing things are competitive unless the media is buying into the narrative set by your opponent's internal polls.

Things are really bad when you're releasing internal polls showing you only a point or two ahead, or even worse, your own internal polls show you losing (remember Dodd doing that?).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Internal polls.  Caveat emptor.  

Tarrance Group and POS are two of the biggies for Republican candidates, so they're legit, up to a point, of course.

My point is somewhat similar to 2006 and 2008 - obviously these numbers overstate the Republican to a certain extent, and some of their conclusions are probably dubious, but when they show the Republican up 15, they should not be completely ignored (as opposed to showing the Republican "close", for example within 5 or something).  Just replace all that with Democrat if it helps you visualize better.

Just fyi on another point - Edwards has kinda refused to release his own polls, which suggests that he recognizes there is truth in what is being said.

Yea, I read that yesterday about Edwards.

[Mr.Phips]

Is this one of those "informed ballot" polls? 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Show me a real poll. I highly doubt Boyd is doing worse than Obama did.

[minionofmidas]

89% decideds is the thing that looks kinda fishy to me... though I find Boyd in for a fight perfectly credible o/c.

Internal poll?  Who is tarence group?

The Tarrance Group is one of the best known national pollsters for the GOP. They are also known for their long-running partnership with Dem pollsters Lake Research to create the Battleground Polls.

Any possibility of something fishy going on, like letting the voters know before they answer on Boyd, how Boyd voted on HCR?

(I spelled that pretty badly, I was on my phone)

As to the topic of wording things badly...

Boyd doesn't seem to have pleased anybody with his health care vote; even though he voted for the bill, his approval among Democrats is just 45 percent. That could be why he's already running ads for his August primary against underfunded state Sen. Al Lawson (D). (The district is 22 percent black, and so is Lawson.)

Lawson is 22% Black?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Is this one of those "informed ballot" polls? 

I doubt it, since Tarrance is a respectable pollster. (I can't rule it out entirely—they clearly asked issue-related questions, but it appears they were done after the head-to-head.)

FWIW, Tarrance also did a generic ballot question, and voters preferred a generic Republican 48% to 35% over a generic Democrat in this district.

[Lunar]

Is this one of those "informed ballot" polls?  

I doubt it, since Tarrance is a respectable pollster. (I can't rule it out entirely—they clearly asked issue-related questions, but it appears they were done after the head-to-head.)

FWIW, Tarrance also did a generic ballot question, and voters preferred a generic Republican 48% to 35% over a generic Democrat in this district.

Look, even respectable pollster can do crappy polls if the client requests it.  Did you see Silver & Blumenthal tearing into the latest R2k poll done for DFA?

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/dfa_survey_priming_the_vote_in.php

Boyd may lose, but I refuse to believe that he'll do worse than Obama did in that district.

[Rowan]

Since when was Research 2000 a respected pollster?

[Lunar]

Since when was Research 2000 a respected pollster?

I think they are.  They're clearly not a joke pollster, and they have a very high prominence.  Certainly not the same as Gallup, but the point is that if the client (in this case, the NRCC, the opposite of an unbiased sourced) asks that the questions be asked in a certain order, then they will be.

Anyway, the results are fairly suspect. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Look, even respectable pollster can do crappy polls if the client requests it.

Not if I was running the polling firm. Credibility should matter here, moreso than anywhere else.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look, even respectable pollster can do crappy polls if the client requests it.

Not if I was running the polling firm. Credibility should matter here, moreso than anywhere else.

Well you don't run this one. Just as you clearly don't run Strategic Vision (to give an example of one that blew all their credibility away over basically nothing.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Look, even respectable pollster can do crappy polls if the client requests it.

Not if I was running the polling firm. Credibility should matter here, moreso than anywhere else.

Well you don't run this one. Just as you clearly don't run Strategic Vision (to give an example of one that blew all their credibility away over basically nothing.)

I didn't say I did, but thanks to the anonymity of the Internet, I suppose you can never know for sure whether I'm a polling magnate or not. Fun!

[Free Palestine]

I wonder how Paul C McKain is doing in the polls.