PA-12 Special Election/PPP: Democrats risk losing seat to the Republicans

[Tender Branson]

Tim Burns (R): 44%
Mark Critz (D): 41%

PPP surveyed 1,197 likely voters in PA-12 on April 17th and 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_420.pdf

[The Age Wave]

Well holy crap.

[ajc0918]

Not a good time to be a democrat in an appalachian coal district.

[CultureKing]

Isn't this a swing district?

[Lief]

It's not like this district is going to exist anymore in 2012 anyway...

[So the Heroes Fall]

Isn't this a swing district?

Which would fit well with a margin that's basically the margin of error.

[Meeker]

There would be a certain level of irony in Ted Kennedy and John Murtha's seats both being won by Republicans after their deaths.

[War on Want]

Isn't this a swing district?

Recently? Yes. In the past? It was(would be) a very strong Democratic district.

[J. J.]

Isn't this a swing district?

Recently? Yes. In the past? It was(would be) a very strong Democratic district.

It has been held by the GOP since 1974, with part of the district (basically Westmoreland County) being Democratic since 1932. 

To put it into perspective, I think my great grandfather voted for the last successful Republican for Congress there, in 1930.  He died in 1939.

[Badger]

Nothing surprising here. McCain narrowly won the district as SW PA has grown substantially less Democratic in the last 20 years. People have long correctly speculated this word become a competative seat without Murtha.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

There would be a certain level of irony in Ted Kennedy and John Murtha's seats both being won by Republicans after their deaths.

I don't see it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

[Badger]

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

[Rowan]

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

Murtha wanted a single-payer healthcare system(he co-sponsored legislation) and he voted for Cap and Trade. Burns wants no parts of either of these things. How is that not a major ideological shift?

[J. J.]

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.

BUT you and I both know why McCain won there.

[J. J.]

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.

BUT you and I both know why McCain won there.

BUT, traditionally, to win there, you had to be very pro-union, and very anti free trade.  That has changed.

[J. J.]

Susquehanna has Critz up, by eight, I think.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

[J. J.]

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Susquehanna doesn't exactly have a good record. 

[cinyc]

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.

[Badger]

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.

Yeah, and let's not forget they have a contested gubernatorial primary as well as the Sestak/Specter showdown.

[Mr.Phips]

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

PPP is hardly a Dem pollster.  If anything, there polling has erred in favor of the GOP. 

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

PPP is hardly a Dem pollster.  If anything, there polling has erred in favor of the GOP. 

Yea the irony is weak but its still irony, and I am a sucker for it.

Anyway, they have also erred period. Hoffman +15 ring a bell? Yet they got Brown right. We will have to see what happens.

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.

Yeah, and let's not forget they have a contested gubernatorial primary as well as the Sestak/Specter showdown.

Yes that is true, but whats to say that all the Democrats will vote for Critz, by defination many will not. The question is how many Dems can be stolen.

[War on Want]

I'm thinking that this will be a Burns victory by 3-4 points. If it wasn't for the Democratic Primary, Critz would get crushed.