Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2014, 12:36:25 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2010 Elections
| | |-+  2010 House Election Polls (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | | |-+  PA-12 Special Election/PPP: Democrats risk losing seat to the Republicans
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: PA-12 Special Election/PPP: Democrats risk losing seat to the Republicans  (Read 2555 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32026
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« on: April 21, 2010, 12:33:30 am »
Ignore

Tim Burns (R): 44%
Mark Critz (D): 41%

PPP surveyed 1,197 likely voters in PA-12 on April 17th and 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_420.pdf
Logged
The Age Wave
silent_spade07
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 954
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -2.43

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2010, 04:16:05 pm »
Ignore

Well holy crap.
Logged



ajc0918
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1366
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2010, 07:52:47 pm »
Ignore

Not a good time to be a democrat in an appalachian coal district.
Logged

CultureKing
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3218
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2010, 09:24:22 pm »
Ignore

Isn't this a swing district?
Logged

Econ: -6.50, Social: -5.23
Lіef
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30908
Czech Republic


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2010, 09:30:53 pm »
Ignore

It's not like this district is going to exist anymore in 2012 anyway...
Logged

RIP opebo
RIP the jfmtsc
RIP joshgreen
RIP King

Don't get me wrong, I love variety, and get a kick out of all these odors.
a combination of tumblr leftism and moshing
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 70925
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2010, 09:46:30 pm »
Ignore

Isn't this a swing district?

Which would fit well with a margin that's basically the margin of error.
Logged

Famous True Leftists:

Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14148


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2010, 09:49:37 pm »
Ignore

There would be a certain level of irony in Ted Kennedy and John Murtha's seats both being won by Republicans after their deaths.
Logged
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7688
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2010, 09:56:45 pm »
Ignore

Isn't this a swing district?
Recently? Yes. In the past? It was(would be) a very strong Democratic district.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31969
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2010, 09:43:31 am »
Ignore

Isn't this a swing district?
Recently? Yes. In the past? It was(would be) a very strong Democratic district.

It has been held by the GOP since 1974, with part of the district (basically Westmoreland County) being Democratic since 1932. 

To put it into perspective, I think my great grandfather voted for the last successful Republican for Congress there, in 1930.  He died in 1939. Smiley
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9717
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2010, 04:55:33 pm »
Ignore

Nothing surprising here. McCain narrowly won the district as SW PA has grown substantially less Democratic in the last 20 years. People have long correctly speculated this word become a competative seat without Murtha.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37889
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2010, 07:24:30 pm »
Ignore

There would be a certain level of irony in Ted Kennedy and John Murtha's seats both being won by Republicans after their deaths.

I don't see it.
Logged

JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6843


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2010, 08:52:44 pm »
Ignore

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.
Logged
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9717
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2010, 02:16:18 pm »
Ignore

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6714


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2010, 07:53:02 am »
Ignore

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

Murtha wanted a single-payer healthcare system(he co-sponsored legislation) and he voted for Cap and Trade. Burns wants no parts of either of these things. How is that not a major ideological shift?
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31969
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2010, 11:54:33 am »
Ignore

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel
Flyers2004
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10527


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.87

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: April 26, 2010, 05:48:23 pm »
Ignore

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.

BUT you and I both know why McCain won there.
Logged


DOUCHEBAGGERY AT ITS FINEST!
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31969
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2010, 09:12:31 am »
Ignore

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.

BUT you and I both know why McCain won there.

BUT, traditionally, to win there, you had to be very pro-union, and very anti free trade.  That has changed.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31969
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2010, 08:52:48 am »
Ignore

Susquehanna has Critz up, by eight, I think.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27177
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2010, 08:54:25 am »
Ignore

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31969
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2010, 10:25:17 am »
Ignore

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Susquehanna doesn't exactly have a good record. 
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7695


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2010, 04:30:54 pm »
Ignore

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.
Logged
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9717
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2010, 08:22:45 pm »
Ignore

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.

Yeah, and let's not forget they have a contested gubernatorial primary as well as the Sestak/Specter showdown.
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2010, 08:44:57 pm »
Ignore

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

PPP is hardly a Dem pollster.  If anything, there polling has erred in favor of the GOP. 
Logged
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27177
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2010, 08:59:45 pm »
Ignore

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

PPP is hardly a Dem pollster.  If anything, there polling has erred in favor of the GOP. 

Yea the irony is weak but its still irony, and I am a sucker for it. Tongue

Anyway, they have also erred period. Hoffman +15 ring a bell? Yet they got Brown right. We will have to see what happens.

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.

Yeah, and let's not forget they have a contested gubernatorial primary as well as the Sestak/Specter showdown.

Yes that is true, but whats to say that all the Democrats will vote for Critz, by defination many will not. The question is how many Dems can be stolen.
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7688
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2010, 10:34:19 pm »
Ignore

I'm thinking that this will be a Burns victory by 3-4 points. If it wasn't for the Democratic Primary, Critz would get crushed.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines