Percentage of Hispanic vote Marco Rubio would win if nominated
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  Percentage of Hispanic vote Marco Rubio would win if nominated
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Author Topic: Percentage of Hispanic vote Marco Rubio would win if nominated  (Read 6560 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: April 22, 2010, 05:00:30 AM »

Not that I think his nomination is likely, but he's the most promising Hispanic that the Republicans have at the moment. I'm not so much interested in him specifically, but how Generic Hispanic Republican would do in Generic Presidential Election. Bush won about 40% of Hispanics in 2004, so in a 50/50 election, would Rubio win a majority? If so, how large a majority? Would it be enough to put some exotic targets (say, California) in play?
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2010, 05:29:48 AM »

55% or so. He'd win about 85% among Cubans though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2010, 06:49:38 AM »

Not that I think his nomination is likely, but he's the most promising Hispanic that the Republicans have at the moment. I'm not so much interested in him specifically, but how Generic Hispanic Republican would do in Generic Presidential Election. Bush won about 40% of Hispanics in 2004, so in a 50/50 election, would Rubio win a majority? If so, how large a majority? Would it be enough to put some exotic targets (say, California) in play?

No more certain than the idea that because of his ancestry that Barry Goldwater would pick up a big chunk of the Jewish vote in 1964!

Cuban-Americans have been drifting away from the Right as Fidel Castro becomes less relevant, much as happened with Chinese-Americans whlo used to be heavily Republican in response to the extremist ideology of the pre-1970 People's Republic of China.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2010, 08:12:53 AM »

40% max
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2010, 09:06:04 AM »
« Edited: April 22, 2010, 09:15:10 AM by Joementum »

The Democrats, with their own Latino surrogates, would be sure to remind that Rubio opposed Sotomayor's confirmation and that he opposed the immigration reform most of them favor.  In trying to woo their own group, Rubio might end up as the next Sarah Palin... a big bust.

*I don't think Rubio will win a senate seat.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2010, 09:23:04 AM »

I just don't know how someone who could possibly have 2 years experience as a senator make a successful bid for president. If he gets elected this year, he will have to spend the next two years campaigning anyway; I mean at least Obama took office four years before he was elected, and people still criticized his for lack of experience.
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redcommander
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2010, 01:40:26 PM »

I don't see how he could appeal to Hispanic voters. He is too right wing for many Non-Hispanics let alone Hispanics. Probably a little more than McCain, but no more than 40%. If Republicans are serious about a Hispanic Prez or VP, they will probably have to wait for Martinez, Barela, Herrera, or Canesco to get elected and work their way up the political ladder.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2010, 03:59:15 PM »

The Democrats, with their own Latino surrogates, would be sure to remind that Rubio opposed Sotomayor's confirmation and that he opposed the immigration reform most of them favor.  In trying to woo their own group, Rubio might end up as the next Sarah Palin... a big bust.

*I don't think Rubio will win a senate seat.

Crist will win as an independent and be welcomed to caucus with the Democratic Party where he can enjoy genuine independence, or Meek will win as a Democrat and offset one of the sure gains for the GOP.
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Zarn
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« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2010, 03:01:12 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2010, 03:04:18 PM by TrueRepublicIran »


Cuban-Americans have been drifting away from the Right as Fidel Castro becomes less relevant...

That explains why I am left-wing.... oh wait.

Maybe my siblings? Errr... nope.

Cubans in Florida? Uh... not really...

Cuban politicians? Oh wait, that's Rubio.

Who then?

Cuban Americans are still well aware of who the Castros are. The younger generation simply does not want the embargo. Big difference.
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The Age Wave
silent_spade07
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« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2010, 03:05:41 PM »


Cuban-Americans have been drifting away from the Right as Fidel Castro becomes less relevant...

That explains why I am left-wing.... oh wait.

Maybe my siblings? Errr... nope.

Cubans in Florida? Uh... not really...

Cuban politicians? Oh wait, that's Rubio.

Who then?

Cuban Americans are still well aware of who the Castros are. The younger generation simply does not want the embargo. Big difference.

Trade restrictions are left-wing anyways, lol. Not wanting an embargo would be a right-wing position.
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justW353
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2010, 03:12:13 PM »


Cuban-Americans have been drifting away from the Right as Fidel Castro becomes less relevant...

That explains why I am left-wing.... oh wait.

Maybe my siblings? Errr... nope.

Cubans in Florida? Uh... not really...

Cuban politicians? Oh wait, that's Rubio.

Who then?

Cuban Americans are still well aware of who the Castros are. The younger generation simply does not want the embargo. Big difference.

Strangely enough, you don't live in Florida...Yes, Cubans in Florida are moving to the left.  I would know, I lived in Florida up until last spring.

Also, your generalizations are horrible.  "My siblings and I are right-wing, which means all Cubans must be right wing!111!! DUH!11!!!"

You have Mel Martinez, Marco Rubio, and Carlos Alvarez...That's it for Florida.

Look, the refugees vote Republican.  The refugees aren't going to be around forever.  Look at the polling, and you'll see that Hispanics under 30 in Miami-Dade voted overwhelmingly for Obama - something like 70 to 30.
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Zarn
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2010, 03:15:41 PM »


Cuban-Americans have been drifting away from the Right as Fidel Castro becomes less relevant...

That explains why I am left-wing.... oh wait.

Maybe my siblings? Errr... nope.

Cubans in Florida? Uh... not really...

Cuban politicians? Oh wait, that's Rubio.

Who then?

Cuban Americans are still well aware of who the Castros are. The younger generation simply does not want the embargo. Big difference.

Strangely enough, you don't live in Florida...Yes, Cubans in Florida are moving to the left.  I would know, I lived in Florida up until last spring.

Also, your generalizations are horrible.  "My siblings and I are right-wing, which means all Cubans must be right wing!111!! DUH!11!!!"

You have Mel Martinez, Marco Rubio, and Carlos Alvarez...That's it for Florida.

Look, the refugees vote Republican.  The refugees aren't going to be around forever.  Look at the polling, and you'll see that Hispanics under 30 in Miami-Dade voted overwhelmingly for Obama - something like 70 to 30.

You the one that made the biggest generalization. The only generalization I made was that Cubans Americans in Florida were not moving all that much (which is true). You generalization was that they all moved far to the left.
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Bo
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2010, 03:16:46 PM »

If you're talking about 2012, I could see him receiving a maximum of 40% (and that is probably way optimistic). If you're talking about 2016 or another election in the future, I could theoretically see him winning 50-55%, but probably no more than that.
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Zarn
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2010, 03:20:08 PM »

If you're talking about 2012, I could see him receiving a maximum of 40% (and that is probably way optimistic). If you're talking about 2016 or another election in the future, I could theoretically see him winning 50-55%, but probably no more than that.

I agree that it won't be higher. I actually think the ceiling is about 45%. There won't be an overwhelmingly monumental appeal.

The only thing that could allow that to even happen is that Hispanics just come to the center of the American political spectrum a bit giving the Republicans some votes.
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justW353
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« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2010, 03:33:25 PM »


Cuban-Americans have been drifting away from the Right as Fidel Castro becomes less relevant...

That explains why I am left-wing.... oh wait.

Maybe my siblings? Errr... nope.

Cubans in Florida? Uh... not really...

Cuban politicians? Oh wait, that's Rubio.

Who then?

Cuban Americans are still well aware of who the Castros are. The younger generation simply does not want the embargo. Big difference.

Strangely enough, you don't live in Florida...Yes, Cubans in Florida are moving to the left.  I would know, I lived in Florida up until last spring.

Also, your generalizations are horrible.  "My siblings and I are right-wing, which means all Cubans must be right wing!111!! DUH!11!!!"

You have Mel Martinez, Marco Rubio, and Carlos Alvarez...That's it for Florida.

Look, the refugees vote Republican.  The refugees aren't going to be around forever.  Look at the polling, and you'll see that Hispanics under 30 in Miami-Dade voted overwhelmingly for Obama - something like 70 to 30.

You the one that made the biggest generalization. The only generalization I made was that Cubans Americans in Florida were not moving all that much (which is true). You generalization was that they all moved far to the left.

lolwut?

I used polling numbers, not my own goddamn opinion like you.

http://www.alternet.org/election08/105956/miami-dade_leaning_democratic_as_cubans_age/
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Bo
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« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2010, 03:47:00 PM »

If you're talking about 2012, I could see him receiving a maximum of 40% (and that is probably way optimistic). If you're talking about 2016 or another election in the future, I could theoretically see him winning 50-55%, but probably no more than that.

I agree that it won't be higher. I actually think the ceiling is about 45%. There won't be an overwhelmingly monumental appeal.

The only thing that could allow that to even happen is that Hispanics just come to the center of the American political spectrum a bit giving the Republicans some votes.


I think that despite Rubio's hardcore conservative positions, many typically Democratic Latino voters could vote for him due to identity politics. I'm sure a lot of Latino want to see one of their own elected President, and thus I think many of them who typically don't vote for the GOP would vote for Rubio (just like how some Republican blacks voted for Obama). Thus, in a neutral/good year for the GOP, I could see Rubio winning a majority of the Latino vote. Besides, he could always de-emphasize some of his more controversial positions, if necessary.
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Zarn
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« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2010, 04:44:34 PM »


Cuban-Americans have been drifting away from the Right as Fidel Castro becomes less relevant...

That explains why I am left-wing.... oh wait.

Maybe my siblings? Errr... nope.

Cubans in Florida? Uh... not really...

Cuban politicians? Oh wait, that's Rubio.

Who then?

Cuban Americans are still well aware of who the Castros are. The younger generation simply does not want the embargo. Big difference.

Strangely enough, you don't live in Florida...Yes, Cubans in Florida are moving to the left.  I would know, I lived in Florida up until last spring.

Also, your generalizations are horrible.  "My siblings and I are right-wing, which means all Cubans must be right wing!111!! DUH!11!!!"

You have Mel Martinez, Marco Rubio, and Carlos Alvarez...That's it for Florida.

Look, the refugees vote Republican.  The refugees aren't going to be around forever.  Look at the polling, and you'll see that Hispanics under 30 in Miami-Dade voted overwhelmingly for Obama - something like 70 to 30.

You the one that made the biggest generalization. The only generalization I made was that Cubans Americans in Florida were not moving all that much (which is true). You generalization was that they all moved far to the left.

lolwut?

I used polling numbers, not my own goddamn opinion like you.

http://www.alternet.org/election08/105956/miami-dade_leaning_democratic_as_cubans_age/

That's not even an election day exit poll and in a heavily Demcoratic leaning year. Yet, still the Cubans favored McCain.
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phk
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« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2010, 06:41:53 PM »

You have Hispanics and than you have Cuban-Americans.
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Derek
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« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2010, 08:43:35 PM »

As a Republican I like that Rubio is able to attract large portions from a minority group. Let's see if this spreads throughout the Latinos. I haven't seen any pulling on the Hispanic/Latino vote for Florida's Senate race this year though.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #19 on: April 25, 2010, 07:49:25 AM »

We could try extrapolating from Obama's improvement over Kerry. Of course, this has a number of problems - the already high victory margins make linear extrapolation unwise, a significant portion of Obama's improvement was a result of increased turnout and blacks probably care more about identity politics than Hispanics.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: April 25, 2010, 09:46:54 AM »

We could try extrapolating from Obama's improvement over Kerry. Of course, this has a number of problems - the already high victory margins make linear extrapolation unwise, a significant portion of Obama's improvement was a result of increased turnout and blacks probably care more about identity politics than Hispanics.

Extrapolation is reckless except at margins. Reversion to the mean is more likely unless overpowering realities take place. In the absence of those I expect President Obama to receive vote margins not so strong where he won by more than 7% and to lose states that he lost by 7% or more by lesser margins. The rest? Very much in play.

Rubio, that said, would be a poor choice to win the Presidency. He is no moderate.   
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Oakvale
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« Reply #21 on: April 25, 2010, 12:24:59 PM »

If you're talking about 2012, I could see him receiving a maximum of 40% (and that is probably way optimistic). If you're talking about 2016 or another election in the future, I could theoretically see him winning 50-55%, but probably no more than that.

I agree that it won't be higher. I actually think the ceiling is about 45%. There won't be an overwhelmingly monumental appeal.

The only thing that could allow that to even happen is that Hispanics just come to the center of the American political spectrum a bit giving the Republicans some votes.


I think that despite Rubio's hardcore conservative positions, many typically Democratic Latino voters could vote for him due to identity politics. I'm sure a lot of Latino want to see one of their own elected President, and thus I think many of them who typically don't vote for the GOP would vote for Rubio (just like how some Republican blacks voted for Obama). Thus, in a neutral/good year for the GOP, I could see Rubio winning a majority of the Latino vote. Besides, he could always de-emphasize some of his more controversial positions, if necessary.

That's like saying Alan Keyes would win a majority of the black vote...
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Bo
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« Reply #22 on: April 25, 2010, 12:40:24 PM »

If you're talking about 2012, I could see him receiving a maximum of 40% (and that is probably way optimistic). If you're talking about 2016 or another election in the future, I could theoretically see him winning 50-55%, but probably no more than that.

I agree that it won't be higher. I actually think the ceiling is about 45%. There won't be an overwhelmingly monumental appeal.

The only thing that could allow that to even happen is that Hispanics just come to the center of the American political spectrum a bit giving the Republicans some votes.


I think that despite Rubio's hardcore conservative positions, many typically Democratic Latino voters could vote for him due to identity politics. I'm sure a lot of Latino want to see one of their own elected President, and thus I think many of them who typically don't vote for the GOP would vote for Rubio (just like how some Republican blacks voted for Obama). Thus, in a neutral/good year for the GOP, I could see Rubio winning a majority of the Latino vote. Besides, he could always de-emphasize some of his more controversial positions, if necessary.

That's like saying Alan Keyes would win a majority of the black vote...

Not quite. Keyes is perceived as much more of a joke and much more extreme than Rubio, and also the GOP typically win about 10% of the black vote (2008 was an exception) while they typically win 30-40% of the Latino vote. Thus, Rubio only needs to flip about 10-15% of Latino voters (in a good year for the GOP) to win the Latino vote.  Keyes, on the other hand, would have to flip 40% or more of black voters to win the black vote. Thus, it is much easier for Rubio to win a majority of Latino voters than for Keyes to win a majority of black voters.
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