Will Obama push through Puerto Rican statehood by 2012?

[CJK]

Will Obama get Puerto Rico as the 51st state before the 2010 election?

[Yelnoc]

No.  Even if the bill gets past Congress, which I highly doubt, the actual referendum will fail.  The Puerto Rican people, believe it or not, don't want to pay US taxes (not to mention nationalism).

[Bo]

No, he won't.

[Holmes]

Isn't it impossible anyway? The earlier they can do their first vote is November, right? Then they gotta do a second vote in 2012, then Congress has to authorize it as a state.

[justW353]

No.  Even if the bill gets past Congress, which I highly doubt, the actual referendum will fail.  The Puerto Rican people, believe it or not, don't want to pay US taxes (not to mention nationalism).

Yet they still want representation.

No Taxation Without Representation should go both ways.

Anyways, if given the choice of whether to be a state or gain sovereignty, they will overwhelmingly choose statehood.

He won't do it by 2012, but I could see it happening by 2016.

[California8429]

possibly as a campaign pledge for post-2012, probably not.

Puerto Ricans don't want to pay US taxes and weighing that and real representation...they've choosen no taxes every time so far. It would be a dramatic blow to Obama since it most likely wouldn't make it through the Congress especially if Puerto Rico votes once again...NO in which case would make Obama look like the biggest government guy every with a clear "example" of him trying to force people to do things they don't wish.

Anyways the answer is 99% no

[izixs]

Since there's a lot of talk and not a lot of information on the previous votes concerning Puerto Rico's status, here's the skinny.

Year	1967	1993	1998
Independence	0.6%	4.5%	2.5%
Commonwealth	60.4%	48.9%	0.3%
State	39.0%	46.6%	46.7%
None of the Above	NA	NA	50.3%

The None of the Above option was only allowed in the '98 vote.

Now the thing that jumps out at me is that pretty much no one wants independence no matter the decade. At the same time, statehood had grown and leveled out in support (at least as far as the 90s go). The commonwealth option is the interesting one. Because it seems to be the default none of the above when its only the first three options. So it seems like a slim majority folks are looking for an option that is neither statehood or independence, but there's a strong state hood group all the same.

So this suggests that at some level the people of Puerto Rico are unhappy with the current state of affairs but either want to correct it by becoming a state (and thus having a say in policies that affect them) or want an option that is some sort of change but with none of the restrictions each of the options given presents.

As for if the bill will even go through congress, that's a big if as the senate these days has been obstruction central for bills large and small and is quickly becoming one of the least democratic institutions in the country because of it.

[Хahar 🤔]

lol

[minionofmidas]

Since there's a lot of talk and not a lot of information on the previous votes concerning Puerto Rico's status, here's the skinny.

Year	1967	1993	1998
Independence	0.6%	4.5%	2.5%
Commonwealth	60.4%	48.9%	0.3%
State	39.0%	46.6%	46.7%
None of the Above	NA	NA	50.3%

The None of the Above option was only allowed in the '98 vote.

when for all practical purposes, it was the keep status quo option (the commonwealth option there was a marginal step towards independence IIRC.)
The Independence vote is suppressed by tactical voting. Expect it to do much better (though not actually win) in a straight vote versus either statehood or the status quo.

[minionofmidas]

It is probably not necessary, but just in case...

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[Derek]

I'm sure he'd love a few more electoral votes because he sure will need them.

[Padfoot]

Since there's a lot of talk and not a lot of information on the previous votes concerning Puerto Rico's status, here's the skinny.

Year	1967	1993	1998
Independence	0.6%	4.5%	2.5%
Commonwealth	60.4%	48.9%	0.3%
State	39.0%	46.6%	46.7%
None of the Above	NA	NA	50.3%

The None of the Above option was only allowed in the '98 vote.

when for all practical purposes, it was the keep status quo option (the commonwealth option there was a marginal step towards independence IIRC.)
The Independence vote is suppressed by tactical voting. Expect it to do much better (though not actually win) in a straight vote versus either statehood or the status quo.

Well from the looks of the latest plebiscite bill heading to the Senate it appears more like another bogus 4 option vote is what we'll be seeing.  The original bill wasn't too bad before amendments but some idiot congresswoman from North Carolina screwed the whole thing up.  The bill recently passed by the House calls for a two step process.  In the first step, Puerto Ricans would be asked if they would like to maintain their current status or have a change in status.  If they vote for no change then another vote on the matter would be held 8 years later.  If they do vote for a change then a second vote is held in which they choose from the following four options:

1. Statehood
2. Complete Independence
3. Sovereignty w/ Free Association
4. Current Commonwealth Status

In the original bill, the fourth option was not included which makes sense because in order to get to the second vote the current status would have to lose in the first vote.  But for whatever reason Rep. Virginia Foxx proposed an amendment to include the status quo in the second vote and the idiots approved it.

Meanwhile, a sensible amendment proposed by Rep. Nydia Velazquez failed.  Her amendment would have added the current commonwealth status as well but it also eliminated the first vote entirely.  In the event that no option received over 50% of the vote, Rep. Velazquez's  amendment also called for a run-off between the two-options receiving the most votes.

Given the bill's current format I can't see how any change in status will be realized in the near future.  Without any method in place to force one of the three camps (independence, statehood, and status quo) to vote for a second option I doubt we'll have any resolution to the matter especially if the divisions haven't changed much in the last 12 years.

[Derek]

I want complete independence for Texas. They just may take the initiative.

[President Mitt]

I want complete independence for Texas. They just may take the initiative.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._White

[Derek]

Oh I've seen it. It was about a year ago when 51% of Texas Republicans said they'd support secession.

[exopolitician]

I want complete independence for Texas. They just may take the initiative.

No.