What would 2012 election look like if...............

[yougo1000]

Unemplyment is at 6.1, troops are partially out of Iraq, Health Care bill completley fails, Republicanss take Senate and House and Obama's approval is at 52%.

[pbrower2a]

Unemployment is at 6.1, troops are partially out of Iraq, Health Care bill completely fails, Republicans take Senate and House and Obama's approval is at 52%.

He runs against a "do-nothing" Congress much as did Harry Truman in 1948, and wins decisively. Difference: There's no secession of Dixiecrats who are already GOP.

deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  

[old timey villain]

unemployment around 7%, the healthcare bill controversy isn't even really thought about anymore, dems still control congress but by a slim majority, troops out of Iraq but Afghanistan is still kind of a mess, and Obama admitted to an affair in summer of 2011 (that ended in 2006). Approval around 55%

[pbrower2a]

unemployment around 7%, the healthcare bill controversy isn't even really thought about anymore, dems still control congress but by a slim majority, troops out of Iraq but Afghanistan is still kind of a mess, and Obama admitted to an affair in summer of 2011 (that ended in 2006). Approval around 55%

Approval around 55% -- Obama landslide, as that would result in about a 56-43 margin. 

[old timey villain]

but would the affair cause him to lose more traditional states like Iowa or North Carolina?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

He runs against a "do-nothing" Congress much as did Harry Truman in 1948, and wins decisively. Difference: There's no secession of Dixiecrats who are already GOP.

If Obama's approvals are 52%, I think you should see a much larger win than you've described. Obama probably picks up two congressional districts in Nebraksa, Missouri, and probably Montana too. Louisiana should be ripe for the picking as well because of the age wave and because of the soon-to-be-coined "oil effect."

[old timey villain]

how would the "oil effect" help him Louisiana?

[Derek]

http://

If the health care bill fails? It doesn't go into effect until 2014 when the ppl who need insurance now will be dead.

[Oakvale]

but would the affair cause him to lose more traditional states like Iowa or North Carolina?

...what?

[Derek]

yea what affair? the one I hope he has with a white intern?

[California8429]

how would the "oil effect" help him Louisiana?

because he's not a Republican

In the public eyes Republican=Oil$$$

In LA now Oil=BAD

[President Mitt]

Unemployment is at 6.1, troops are partially out of Iraq, Health Care bill completely fails, Republicans take Senate and House and Obama's approval is at 52%.

He runs against a "do-nothing" Congress much as did Harry Truman in 1948, and wins decisively. Difference: There's no secession of Dixiecrats who are already GOP.

deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  

Hail the Machine!

[Lief 🗽]

If unemployment is only 6.1% then Obama wins in a landslide.

[old timey villain]

but would the affair cause him to lose more traditional states like Iowa or North Carolina?

...what?

I mean socially conservative states, states where typical family values reign and people don't take kindly to politicians who cheat on their spouses.

[justW353]

...Obama didn't have an affair...WTF?

If the scenario is like that the first post...

[old timey villain]

...Obama didn't have an affair...WTF?

If the scenario is like that the first post...

I know he did NOT have an affair. This is hypothetical. I thought this thread was about creating hypothetical scenarios for 2012

[sentinel]

Unemplyment is at 6.1, troops are partially out of Iraq, Health Care bill completley fails, Republicanss take Senate and House and Obama's approval is at 52%.

The health care bill really can't fail by 2012...since its not implemented til 2014...

Obama landslide. Somewhere between what Cope1989 has and pbrower2a.

Although I don't think he'll take Indiana again.

[Derek]

There are alot of If's in this scenario that are both good and bad but it would be interesting. Whoever the GOP nominee is in 2012 had best compare the 6.1% unemployment to what it was in 2004 when Bush was running for reelection and it was 5.4%. We can still take this guy down in 2012 even if things are going well. It's just going to take a team effort and dedication to convince those whose voices aren't being heard in the whitehouse that they must vote Republican. Gotta have that competitive mindset. In the words of Obama, "if they bring a knife we bring a gun." That's the mindset the GOP needs to have in 2012.

Obama- "If they bring a knife, we bring a gun."

[opebo]

Ok I think the economy is better than most people think it is, but 6.1 percent unemployment?  Can anyone calculate how much growth it would take for that to actually occur?

Anyway that would lead to the Republicans winning 274 to 264 by the 08 math, presumably a bit worse in the 2012 math:

[Derek]

Then he would lose if you have 274-264 for Obama by 2008 math.

[opebo]

Then he would lose if you have 274-264 for Obama by 2008 math.

Yes, I think his winning is very unlikely.

[Derek]

I do too but you never know.

[Vosem]

Opebo's map is right, but I have a feeling Obama would win the national PV in this scenario, so we have 2000 all over again.

[AndrewTX]

I'd see this as a possible scenario in which Obama will win. I dont see him winning Indiana, any CD in Nebraska, Virginia and North Carolina. 2012 will not be the "George Bush is bad" envivorment that it was in 2008.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama isn't going to win AZ, nor is he going to win MO, I think it is CO, NV, OH and either FL or VA, Dems have some vulnerable governors up and I doubt McCaskill is going to help Nixon, both are weak candidates for reelection.