Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)
2) Sealing the deal (A certain bit of the big movement will stick, more likely than not it would have happened anyway, but the polling says that Sestak's "made the offer".  Over the next few days, we'll know whether he can close the deal.  Recently, think of this as similar to what happened in Britain.)

The problem I can't get around is that these two candidates were not created equal. Specter is both the incumbent and one who was an opponent of the Democrats for 30+ years. Sestak is doctrinally sound and not well-known enough to have earned real enemies. Specter is relying on the votes of hundreds of thousands of people who voted against him in 2004. It's hard for me to see how he pulls it out. Speaking as a Democrat, there are precious few ways I could imagine Specter having "sealed the deal" with me or other Democrats when the only rationale, his comparative electability, has been seriously called into question.

Brilliant observation, of course.  My best guess, brittain........Specter brings home the bacon and people want their fill of bacon.   I can see him pulling out the primary.......but God I hope not.

[xavier110]

What I'm most afraid of is the old people breaking for Specter.

[Badger]

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)

"Too early"? Sestak just pulled ahead or even in most polls within the last week, and the primary's only 6 days away.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)

"Too early"? Sestak just pulled ahead or even in most polls within the last week, and the primary's only 6 days away.

Yeah the local talking heads are saying he's just peaking now and momentum is on his side.

[J. J.]

F & M came out with Specter 38 Sestak 29, 7.9 MOE.

http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html

WRONG. The numbers for F & M are Sestak 38 Specter 36. The numbers you posted are for ALL REGISTERED DEMOCRATS. I think it's safe to say that all registered Democrats will not be heading to the polls for this primary.

Textbook example of J. J. dishonesty (even ignoring the fact that F&M is a garbage uni poll anyway.)

That is what the story says, and it didn't qualify the other numbers; it is well within the MOE.  Quinniac, your favorite pollster, put him ahead in the same story.

Actually F & M is one of the better pollsters from PA.

The story didn't caveat it:

The Franklin & Marshall poll shows Sestak with 38 percent and Specter with 36 percent. The sampling error margin was plus or minus 7.9 percentage points. One in four were undecided. Telephone surveys were conducted May 3 through Sunday.

In Franklin & Marshall's broader survey of registered Democrats, Specter had a slight lead, 38 percent to 29 percent, with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html#ixzz0nkVWTfOX


You must be in panic mode, BRTD.

It looks close, and, Spade's observation may be correct.  The Obama commercial probably put a dent into any momentum, if not stopping or reversing it. 

For Democrats that are a bit bipartisan, they just got an image of Specter being supported by GWB and BHO.  For BHO supporters, the just got the image of BHO supporting Specter.

[Eraserhead]

Allow me to translate the post above for people not yet familiar with JJ:
Spin spin spin, spin spin spin. Spin spin and spin spin. Spin Spin.

[J. J.]

Allow me to translate the post above for people not yet familiar with JJ:
Spin spin spin, spin spin spin. Spin spin and spin spin. Spin Spin.

No, quoting the newspaper article, which was linked in the post.

But now let me translate, Sestak supporters who are panicked by the result.

It is going to be a close race.

[Torie]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

[Lief 🗽]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

Most people have literally no idea that Sestak is running better against Toomey than Specter in the polls.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

I highly doubt that most PA Democrats now each poll and what it says while walking into the booth.

[Lunar]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

I highly doubt that most PA Democrats now each poll and what it says while walking into the booth.

Indeed, as I've said countless times, competitive primaries really screw up general election polling as, in the heat of the primary, staunch supporters of one candidate always claim that they could NEVER back the other candidate, which isn't usually quite the case.

The question, however, is who is more likely to win back the support of the entire Democratic coalition?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, will be able to turn out voters that the other one wouldn't?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, is best able to appeal to moderate Democrats who supported the other, but are torn between Toomey and them?  Does Specter's biography as a senior, as a moderate Republican, as someone connected to the Democratic machine, matter more, or does Sestak's biography as a consistent progressive, as a military veteran, do more for appeal?

[Sam Spade]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

I highly doubt that most PA Democrats now each poll and what it says while walking into the booth.

Indeed, as I've said countless times, competitive primaries really screw up general election polling as, in the heat of the primary, staunch supporters of one candidate always claim that they could NEVER back the other candidate, which isn't usually quite the case.

The question, however, is who is more likely to win back the support of the entire Democratic coalition?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, will be able to turn out voters that the other one wouldn't?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, is best able to appeal to moderate Democrats who supported the other, but are torn between Toomey and them?  Does Specter's biography as a senior, as a moderate Republican, as someone connected to the Democratic machine, matter more, or does Sestak's biography as a consistent progressive, as a military veteran, do more for appeal?

I pay very little attention to GE polling during competitive primaries - totally agree on that front.

[Lunar]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

I highly doubt that most PA Democrats now each poll and what it says while walking into the booth.

Indeed, as I've said countless times, competitive primaries really screw up general election polling as, in the heat of the primary, staunch supporters of one candidate always claim that they could NEVER back the other candidate, which isn't usually quite the case.

The question, however, is who is more likely to win back the support of the entire Democratic coalition?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, will be able to turn out voters that the other one wouldn't?  Which candidate, Specter or Sestak, is best able to appeal to moderate Democrats who supported the other, but are torn between Toomey and them?  Does Specter's biography as a senior, as a moderate Republican, as someone connected to the Democratic machine, matter more, or does Sestak's biography as a consistent progressive, as a military veteran, do more for appeal?

I pay very little attention to GE polling during competitive primaries - totally agree on that front.

Remember Bill Clinton calling Bill Richardson on the phone in 2008, right before Richardson was to endorse Obama, seriously telling him that Obama "couldn't win!"    ?  Rustbelt Dems, it was claimed, were proven by polling that they could never support Obama.  Obama "couldn't win" states like, well, Pennsylvania.  

[J. J.]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

Someplace there was polling on that.  It was basically a "Who do you think can win the general election" question.  Specter "won" that poll.  I think 29% thought that Sestak could win.

I don't agree; I've said from the start that Sestak is the stronger general election candidate.  The perception might be that Sestak is weaker. 

[Badger]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

Someplace there was polling on that.  It was basically a "Who do you think can win the general election" question.  Specter "won" that poll.  I think 29% thought that Sestak could win.

I don't agree; I've said from the start that Sestak is the stronger general election candidate.  The perception might be that Sestak is weaker. 

Not to mention Specter's much better known and his opposition is much more "solid" then Sestak's. Sestak conversely has a much better chance to expand his numbers.

[Speed of Sound]

Solid new Sestak ad out, really puts Sestak in a good light, pushes his own creds (as opposed to just trashing Arlen), and publicizes the recent polling shift, trying to snag bandwagon momentum. Good enough to counter Obama ad?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94t0VPh_paY&feature=player_embedded

Apparently the Specter campaign is getting really desperate, they are crying foul on the use of public pictures of the Senator because he was in chemo at the time:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/13/specter-chemo-photo-in-se_n_575322.html

[Lief 🗽]

Dumb and petty complaint from Specter. You can barely see their faces; the ad used tiny pictures.

[Brittain33]

Dumb and petty complaint from Specter. You can barely see their faces; the ad used tiny pictures.

I disagree, I think he's right on the substance and would be offended, but there's no way he can effectively get anyone to care about it.

[Meeker]

Sestak should've used a different picture. There are lots of other crummy photos of Specter in which he looks evil.

[J. J.]

Apparently the Specter campaign is getting really desperate, they are crying foul on the use of public pictures of the Senator because he was in chemo at the time:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/13/specter-chemo-photo-in-se_n_575322.html

Classic Specter.

A small negative for Sestak (after a run of brilliant successes).

[Lunar]

Sestak should've used a different picture. There are lots of other crummy photos of Specter in which he looks evil.

I think they wanted a bald picture because bald people look more Republican

[J. J.]

Sestak 40, Toomey 42.

[Eraserhead]

Specter retakes the lead in the tracking poll (by 2%).

There is also supposed to be a Research 2000 poll out today showing Sestak leading by 2%.

Talk about too close for comfort.

[Sam Spade]

Sestak retakes the lead in the tracking poll (by 2%).

There is also supposed to be a Research 2000 poll out today showing Sestak leading by 2%.

Talk about too close for comfort.

You mean Specter right, wrt the Muhlenberg thingy?

[Eraserhead]

Sestak retakes the lead in the tracking poll (by 2%).

There is also supposed to be a Research 2000 poll out today showing Sestak leading by 2%.

Talk about too close for comfort.

You mean Specter right, wrt the Muhlenberg thingy?

Ah, yes. Sorry.