Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).

[Brittain33]

LOL at Specter managing to get purged from both parties within a single congressional term.

[Brittain33]

F & M came out with Specter 38 Sestak 29, 7.9 MOE.

http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html

WRONG. The numbers for F & M are Sestak 38 Specter 36. The numbers you posted are for ALL REGISTERED DEMOCRATS. I think it's safe to say that all registered Democrats will not be heading to the polls for this primary.

Textbook example of J. J. dishonesty (even ignoring the fact that F&M is a garbage uni poll anyway.)

Considering he provied the link, he can't be "dishonest".......I think he just misread or just didn't caveat that it was registerd dems vs. likely dems.

Yes, I'd seen 38-29 cited as a headline number elsewhere, too.

[Brittain33]

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)
2) Sealing the deal (A certain bit of the big movement will stick, more likely than not it would have happened anyway, but the polling says that Sestak's "made the offer".  Over the next few days, we'll know whether he can close the deal.  Recently, think of this as similar to what happened in Britain.)

The problem I can't get around is that these two candidates were not created equal. Specter is both the incumbent and one who was an opponent of the Democrats for 30+ years. Sestak is doctrinally sound and not well-known enough to have earned real enemies. Specter is relying on the votes of hundreds of thousands of people who voted against him in 2004. It's hard for me to see how he pulls it out. Speaking as a Democrat, there are precious few ways I could imagine Specter having "sealed the deal" with me or other Democrats when the only rationale, his comparative electability, has been seriously called into question.

[Brittain33]

To sum it up, Specter's win is dependent on people who:

1) have heard of Sestak's being the boss from hell (very small number) and/or think he'll blow it in the general election (somewhat larger)
2) think Specter is the only Democrat who can win, and that he has a good shot of it (started off as a huge percentage of Democrats, but that has been melting away)
3) are so loyal to their machine that they will vote the way they are told in a primary, even in the privacy of the voting booth, and forgetting Specter's past actions
4) are so loyal to Obama and sufficiently unopinionated about Specter that they will act on his half-hearted endorsement
5) are extremely grateful for Specter's last year of Democratic partisanship while forgetting or forgiving what preceded it
6) don't know or don't care that Specter is unlikable himself

People fit one or some of those categories, not necessarily all.

Needless to say #2 IMO is the biggest factor of all and the one that I wish we could isolate now. Specter's burn rate of "cynical support" is the deciding factor. #1 would be my concern as a voter, but as of now, outweighed by #2.

[Brittain33]

Dumb and petty complaint from Specter. You can barely see their faces; the ad used tiny pictures.

I disagree, I think he's right on the substance and would be offended, but there's no way he can effectively get anyone to care about it.