UT-Salt Lake Tribune/Mason-Dixon: Obama could carry Utah in '12!!!

[Tender Branson]

http://www.sltrib.com/ci_15005335

[Poundingtherock]

Romney is running well behind his 2008 performance.

2008

Romney 90%
McCain 5%
Paul 3%

This poll shows

Romney 73%
Palin 9%
Paul 5%

If Romney is bleeding some of his 2008 support in Utah of all places....

[Tender Branson]

Romney is running well behind his 2008 performance.

2008

Romney 90%
McCain 5%
Paul 3%

This poll shows

Romney 73%
Palin 9%
Paul 5%

If Romney is bleeding some of his 2008 support in Utah of all places....

And Obama`s 31-32% base with that many undecideds is also not really bad this far out.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And Obama`s 31-32% base with that many undecideds is also not really bad this far out.

Does this poll say anything about his approval ratings? I need to know what to add six to.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Heh, Ron Paul is a "leading Republican" now.

Once Paul gets the name recognition of a major presidential nominee, Utah would be an easy 60-70% state for him.

[Derek]

31% is great for a democrat in Utah.

[bgwah]

I want to see an Obama vs. Huckabee poll from Utah.

[You kip if you want to...]

I want to see an Obama vs. Huckabee poll from Utah.

[Poundingtherock]

31% is great?  Perhaps ten years ago but Utah has changed demographically with all the California transplants.

It makes sense that the margin would drop but it's unlikely he's going to repeat his 35% performance against Palin or any non-Romney nominee.

[Derek]

Bush 72% Kerry 26% in Utah.

[Poundingtherock]

Derek,

The state has changed since then.

[Derek]

I don't think it has changed. What about it has changed?

[Poundingtherock]

Transplants

[Tender Branson]

Transplants

Your assumption is a bit faulty. Utah`s population grew by 190.000 between 2004 and 2008, only half of which came from immigration to Utah, whereas the other half is due to many conservative MORMON babies added to the population. Even if you think that 80% of immigrants to Utah were liberals, it won´t change the overall voting behavior in just 4 years.

Much of the big swing in Utah from Kerry to Obama can be attributed to different turnout in the 2 elections and the behaviour of Independents. For example the electorate was 58R-24I-19D in 2004, but it was just 50R-29I-21D in 2008. That means that many Republicans just stayed home in the 2008 elections. Also: Independents changed their voting behavior from 58-33 for Bush over Kerry to 48-44 for McCain over Obama.

Of course the voting behavior can be changed over a bigger timespan of 20-30 years, but not within just 1 cycle.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No, Obama isn't going to carry Utah.

[Tender Branson]

No, Obama isn't going to carry Utah.

Who said that he would ?






(notice sarcasm in my title)

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

No, Obama isn't going to carry Utah.

Who said that he would ?

pbrower2a and/or DS0816 have said as much.

[pbrower2a]

No, Obama isn't going to carry Utah.

Who said that he would ?

pbrower2a and/or DS0816 have said as much.

No -- all that I have said is that under the worst possible circumstances for the GOP, Obama could win Utah. Most notably that would be a nominee hostile to the LDS Church.

Under the right circumstances for the GOP, Obama could lose the whole of New England.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

No, Obama isn't going to carry Utah.

Who said that he would ?

pbrower2a and/or DS0816 have said as much.

No -- all that I have said is that under the worst possible circumstances for the GOP, Obama could win Utah. Most notably that would be a nominee hostile to the LDS Church.

Under the right circumstances for the GOP, Obama could lose the whole of New England.

You made Utah and Idaho toss-up states in an Obama vs. Palin contest.

You also gave Utah to Obama in an Obama vs. Huckabee contest.

[Mjh]

I consider Obama carrying Utah about as likely as the Republicans taking the electoral votes of Massachusets in 2012.