The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
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Author Topic: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest  (Read 43249 times)
nclib
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« Reply #100 on: November 02, 2004, 12:00:09 AM »

Prediction: Kerry 48.91, Bush 48.12, Nader 1.1, Other 1.87

Kerry wins EV 274-264 for Bush.

Kerry takes New Hampshire and Ohio from Bush.

Bush takes Wisconsin from Kerry.
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freedomburns
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« Reply #101 on: November 02, 2004, 03:16:05 AM »

Since the Prediction are closed starting at 11pm EST tonight (about an hour from this post), I've uploaded a not-yet-final version of the ev calculator that includes maps with percentages.  you can play with it here
Dave

Hey Dave, you aren't going to post a prediction?  Come on man.  I'd like to see how you'd call it.


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Gustaf
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« Reply #102 on: November 02, 2004, 03:58:39 AM »



Bush wins big...unsure of MN and MI, but this is mostly gut feeling. Bush wins PV something like 2-3 points.

Bush: 51%

Kerry: 48%

Nader+others: 1%
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jmfcst
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« Reply #103 on: November 02, 2004, 04:00:52 AM »

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM
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jmfcst
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« Reply #104 on: November 02, 2004, 04:46:42 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2004, 04:48:52 AM by jmfcst »

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?
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A18
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« Reply #105 on: November 02, 2004, 04:51:16 AM »

Ohio is more likely to flip, IMHO
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freedomburns
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« Reply #106 on: November 02, 2004, 04:52:35 AM »

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NM and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?

That is an excellent prediction jmfcst.  It could very well be correct in my estimation.  We shall see.  Maybe as soon as eighteen hours from now.
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apricot
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« Reply #107 on: November 02, 2004, 05:44:28 AM »

Kerry 299
Bush 239


PV
Kerry 49.5
Bush 49.0
Nader 1.0
others 0.5

Can't seem to get my map added even though it's on the prediction page.
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A18
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« Reply #108 on: November 02, 2004, 05:45:54 AM »

Here it is:

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apricot
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« Reply #109 on: November 02, 2004, 06:29:49 AM »

thanks :-)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #110 on: November 02, 2004, 07:26:24 AM »

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?
Simple, really. We all know that's exactly what's going to happen. None of wants you to lose his title as Master Predictor.
Smiley
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jmfcst
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« Reply #111 on: November 02, 2004, 08:01:59 AM »

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?
Simple, really. We all know that's exactly what's going to happen. None of wants you to lose his title as Master Predictor.
Smiley

You can't take the title from the champ by a tie, you've got to knock him out! Wink
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #112 on: November 02, 2004, 08:05:55 AM »

Yeah, but a tie looks bad on your record anyways.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #113 on: November 02, 2004, 08:43:05 AM »

Yeah, but a tie looks bad on your record anyways.

LOL! "Ties" on a champs record are called "split-decisions".

I'm just shocked that no one is in agreement with me since I don't think my prediction is very far fetched.  Why does FL have to be safer for Bush than Ohio...?  Doesn't really make sense to me.

But, of course, I hope I am wrong.  I would gladly trade my title for a Bush victory....That said, I am at peace with my prediction, it is what I think (all wishing aside) is going to happen.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #114 on: November 02, 2004, 08:44:49 AM »


Oh yeah PV numbers.

Bush 50.0
Kerry 49.0
Other 1.0%
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Nym90
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« Reply #115 on: November 02, 2004, 09:13:49 AM »

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?
Simple, really. We all know that's exactly what's going to happen. None of wants you to lose his title as Master Predictor.
Smiley

It's not that it's an unrealistic projection, but most people who have Kerry winning Florida think that he will win Ohio as well; the conventional wisdom is that Bush is doing better in Florida than in Ohio.

The economy is much better in Florida than in Ohio; I think that's a large reason why people are assuming that. We'll see what happens; it should be a fun ride. I have plenty of highly caffinated beverages ready.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #116 on: November 02, 2004, 09:38:43 AM »

We'll see what happens; it should be a fun ride. I have plenty of highly caffinated beverages ready.

I'm thinking of getting a few hours sleep in this afternoon (bloody 5 hour time difference...) and watch the results come in.
With lot's of coffee.

Or I might listen to it on the radio... problem is when I did that with the Canadian Elections I fell alseep a few minutes before the Atlantic Results came in :-(
Woke up in time to gloat about the BC results though :-)
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elcorazon
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« Reply #117 on: November 02, 2004, 10:29:35 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2004, 10:31:40 AM by elcorazon »



Kerry 316 Bush 222
what the heck.  I'll take a shot that Kerry surges at the end.

Popular vote:

Kerry 49.4%  Bush 48.7%
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Rixtex
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« Reply #118 on: November 02, 2004, 10:35:26 AM »



EV
Kerry:  280
Bush:  258

PV
Kerry:  50%
Bush:  49%
Nader:  1%
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #119 on: November 02, 2004, 10:53:24 AM »



EV- Bush 276 ; Kerry 262

PV- Bush 50 ; Kerry 48 ; Other 2
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hotpprs
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« Reply #120 on: November 02, 2004, 12:00:54 PM »


A map from the Prediction page..not from the caculator.


The prediction page won't accept any updates.
I wanted to change Colorado to Bush, New Mexico to Kerry, and Ohio to Bush.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #121 on: November 02, 2004, 12:36:42 PM »


This map represents an average of state polls taken on the Sunday of each week since the DNC.

I have not taken into account any third candidates and have assumed that undecideds will split by 2 to 1 in Kerry's favour.

Alabama: Bush 59 Kerry 41
Alaska: Bush 61 Kerry 39
Arizona: Bush 53 Kerry 47
California: Bush 44 Kerry 56
Colorado: Bush 50.5 Kerry 49.5
Connecticut: Bush 43 Kerry 57
Delaware: Bush 44 Kerry 56
D.C.: Bush 13 Kerry 87
Florida: Bush 49.8 Kerry 50.2
Georgia: Bush 57 Kerry 43
Hawaii: Bush 44 Kerry 56
Idaho: Bush 62 Kerry 38
Illinois: Bush 42 Kerry 58
Indiana: Bush 57 Kerry 43
Iowa: Bush 49 Kerry 51
Kansas: Bush 60 Kerry 40
Kentucky: Bush 57 Kerry 43
Louisiana: Bush 55 Kerry 45
Maine: Bush 47 Kerry 53
Maryland: Bush 44 Kerry 56
Massachusetts: Bush 35 Kerry 65
Michigan: Bush 46 Kerry 54
Minnesota: Bush 47.5 Kerry 52.5
Mississippi: Bush 59 Kerry 41
Missouri: Bush 51 Kerry 49
Montana: Bush 59 Kerry 41
Nebraska: Bush 64 Kerry 36
Nevada: Bush 50.5 Kerry 49.5
New Hampshire: Bush 48 Kerry 52
New Jersey: Bush 46 Kerry 54
New Mexico: Bush 48 Kerry 52
New York: Bush 39 Kerry 61
North Dakota: Bush 62 Kerry 38
Ohio: Bush 50.2 Kerry 49.8
Oklahoma: Bush 62 Kerry 38
Oregon: Bush 47 Kerry 53
Pennsylvania: Bush 48 Kerry 52
Rhode Island: Bush 38 Kerry 62
South Carolina: Bush 56 Kerry 44
South Dakota: Bush 56 Kerry 44
Tennessee: Bush 54 Kerry 46
Texas: Bush 59 Kerry 41
Utah: Bush 70 Kerry 30
Vermont: Bush 42 Kerry 58
Virginia: Bush 52 Kerry 48
Washington: Bush 46 Kerry 54
West Virginia: Bush 50.2 Kerry 49.8
Wisconsin: Bush 49.8 Kerry 50.2
Wyoming: Bush 69 Kerry 31

I'm anticipating that Nader's vote will be negligible.

I'm no pollster so I guess a margin of error on my state predictions of 4%

Dave
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #122 on: November 02, 2004, 12:40:06 PM »

You guys left NC off that list...
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #123 on: November 02, 2004, 12:42:16 PM »


Oops so I have, North Carolina: Bush 53 Kerry 47

Dave
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Reignman
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« Reply #124 on: November 02, 2004, 04:23:59 PM »



Kerry 291
Bush 247
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