The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
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Author Topic: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest  (Read 43241 times)
Huckleberry Finn
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« Reply #125 on: November 02, 2004, 05:57:35 PM »

It seems that I'm not able to add the map, but here is my prediction.

Bush over 60:
Wyoming, Utah, Idaho

Bush over 55:
Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska

Bush over 50
North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee

Bush wins but gets less than 50
West Virginia, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona

Kerry wins but gets less than 50
Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada

Kerry over 50
Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon

Kerry over 55
Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland
Illinois, California, Washington, Hawaii

Kerry over 60
Massachusetts, Rhone Island, New York, D.C
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #126 on: November 03, 2004, 06:41:41 AM »

AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.
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MHS2002
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« Reply #127 on: November 03, 2004, 10:09:52 AM »

AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.

I think John Ford has the same prediction as me...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #128 on: November 03, 2004, 02:34:22 PM »

AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.

I think John Ford has the same prediction as me...
No, he has Hawai'i wrong.
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MHS2002
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« Reply #129 on: November 03, 2004, 02:45:42 PM »

AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.

I think John Ford has the same prediction as me...
No, he has Hawai'i wrong.

Yep, you're right, didn't see that there. Now I just hope I can win the CNN showdown game and win the HDTV.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #130 on: November 03, 2004, 03:05:10 PM »


Perfection on the map
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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #131 on: November 03, 2004, 03:45:25 PM »

Damn my faith in Hawai'ians!
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MODU
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« Reply #132 on: November 03, 2004, 03:51:53 PM »


*Loves the fact that people are using the ' in Hawai'i*

You make an old haole boy happy!  hahaha
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Blue Rectangle
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« Reply #133 on: November 03, 2004, 04:08:04 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2004, 04:17:58 PM by Blue Rectangle »

I overestimated Bush in the EC: WI, NH and ME-2, but those were all very close.

I underestimated Bush in the PV: +2.5%.

What I can't figure is how Bush broke +3% in the PV but came close to losing the EV.  His numbers in CA and NY, for instance, were not that much higher this year, so where did all those votes go?

Edit:
NY shows Kerry's margin was 500,000 votes less than Gore's, so that accounts for some of the difference in the PV.
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muon2
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« Reply #134 on: November 03, 2004, 05:54:07 PM »

I think it is not a question of NY and CA as much as what hapened in the South and Mountain West. Bush drew substantially better in the  "hard R" states, probably due to the total lack of resources spent there by Kerry. This generated more votes for Bush without moving any states into his column. A similar pattern existed in 1976, where for a while there was some thought that Ford might beat Carter in the EC while Carter's strength in the South gave him an easy PV victory.
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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #135 on: November 03, 2004, 09:30:51 PM »

Part of it was that the GOP had a precinct captain in every state, no matter how safe, while the Dems only had a ground game in battlegrounds.  The Republicans got turnout to even at 37%-37% and a lot of it came from having a real ground game in rural counties in safe GOP states.

I noticed early in the night that Bush had outperformed in Idniana versus where he was in 2000.  He beat his old mark by 5% or so.  This is the result fo rove's use of the internet.  it was Rove, not Dean and Trippi, who ahve learned what the itnernet means for politics.  It is best used as a mode of organizing, not persuading or fundraising.
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WMS
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« Reply #136 on: November 03, 2004, 09:52:59 PM »

Let's see...

Missed OH, WI, and Maine CD-2. Not too bad, all things considered.

Got NM right, and I got *why* Bush won it as well, which makes me happy. Cheesy

Question: where can I get results for Maine's (and Nebraska's, BTW) Presidential Vote by Congressional District? I'm having a hard time finding that data...
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Nation
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« Reply #137 on: November 07, 2004, 04:20:34 PM »

49/50 states, while missing Bush's PV% big time. I really shouldn't have overestimated the third party support, ugh.

Either way, I'm happy. 49 is pretty good.
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Huckleberry Finn
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« Reply #138 on: November 07, 2004, 05:20:41 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2004, 05:27:55 PM by Huckleberry Finn »

It seems that I'm not able to add the map, but here is my prediction.

Bush over 60:
Wyoming, Utah, Idaho

Bush over 55:
Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska

Bush over 50
North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee

Bush wins but gets less than 50
West Virginia, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona

Kerry wins but gets less than 50
Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada

Kerry over 50
Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon

Kerry over 55
Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland
Illinois, California, Washington, Hawaii

Kerry over 60
Massachusetts, Rhone Island, New York, D.C

I predicted 19 states correctly.

Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, , Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts and D,C

My best line was Kerry over 50 (less than 55) I predicted all six right.

And I predicted the right winner in 45 states. I was over-optimistic, because I did my prediction during the voting. I thought that the high turnout would have helped Kerry.
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A18
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« Reply #139 on: December 25, 2004, 09:37:15 PM »

I want to change my prediction map one more time:



There. That's my final prediction.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #140 on: December 30, 2004, 06:30:22 AM »


I made three wrong predictions: Florida, Iowa and New Mexico

Dave
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exnaderite
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« Reply #141 on: January 02, 2005, 03:07:25 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2005, 11:51:15 PM by Franklin D. Roosevelt »

I want to change my prediction map one more time:



There. That's my final prediction.
If you want to cheat by presenting the election results as your prediction you should use the electoral calculator.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #142 on: January 02, 2005, 03:32:32 AM »

Going through technical difficulties. Please stand by...
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exnaderite
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« Reply #143 on: January 02, 2005, 03:36:51 AM »
« Edited: January 02, 2005, 03:38:25 AM by Franklin D. Roosevelt »

The white states...

Bush 70+
UT

Bush 60+
ID, WY, TX, OK, MS, AL, IN, KS, NE, NE1, NE2

Bush 40+
WI, NV

Kerry 40+
NH, ME2, IA

Kerry 60+
NY, MA, RI, CT, VT

Kerry 80+
DC

Can someone make a map for me?
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Alcon
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« Reply #144 on: January 02, 2005, 03:43:20 AM »


Kerry 276
Bush 262
Bush faithless 1 (the WV elector)

Popular vote
Kerry 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 2%
Other 1%



There ya go. I have a feeling Nebraska's first two districts were accidental.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #145 on: January 02, 2005, 03:50:39 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2005, 03:57:41 AM by Dean »

Confidence:

Percentage:

Kerry 276
Bush 261
Bush faithless 1 (the WV elector)

Popular vote
Kerry 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 2%
Other 1%
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exnaderite
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« Reply #146 on: January 02, 2005, 03:52:48 AM »

Thanks, Alcon. And yes, Nebraska was a typo.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #147 on: January 26, 2005, 04:49:59 PM »

I got only two states "wrong" - in the sense that I fundementally had the race projected incorrectly.

I though Bush had a legit shot in Minnesota, I figured it was basically dead even in that state.  - I was wrong.

Kerry ended up winning Minnesota by about 3.48%, so I'll take my lumps on Minnesota.

Kerry also carried Michigan by only 3.42% - I firgured Kerry was up 4-6% or so, so I missed in Michigan too.  I had the right winner, by I did indeed have the state fundementally pegged wrong.

I also technically got Iowa and Wisconsin "wrong" -  I actually had both states as basically dead even, which they were (both states were within 1%) but to be fair, I did call both of these states for the wrong guy.

I basically nail the big three however, I had Bush up by 4=>6 in Florida and it was actually 5%, and I had Bush up maginally in Ohio, and Kerry up marginally in Pennsylvania

Also, the "Battleground" state of New Jersey came in at Kerry + 6.68%, pretty darn close to my projection of Kerry by about 8% or so.

I got Iowa and Wisconsin wrong in 2000 as well... 

Of the 4 states I missed (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota) are all grouped together geographically...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #148 on: September 11, 2005, 07:29:22 PM »


I have taken JMF's title as master election predictor.  I got all 51 states right, and only 2 senate races wrong (AK and NC).

Onward to 2006.
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Alcon
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« Reply #149 on: September 11, 2005, 08:21:23 PM »


I have taken JMF's title as master election predictor.  I got all 51 states right, and only 2 senate races wrong (AK and NC).

Onward to 2006.

...But you did horribly with shading, and that's what matters!

It does!
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