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Author Topic: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest  (Read 26545 times)
Rococo4
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2004, 02:07:28 am »
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I am having trouble getting my map up.....i'll work on it tomorrow

But My Final Pick:
Bush 31 states, 289 EV, 49.4% PV
Kerry 20 states, 249 EV, 48.4% PV

Changes from 00

Kerry gains NH
Bush gains MN, NM
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The Duke
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2004, 02:52:18 am »
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Shut you hole... Conservatism is dead. I hope I get to see your head paraded on a pike with it.
Sibboleth
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2004, 03:00:01 am »
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Hmm... no idea... everything is too messed up. I'll sit this out.

Although I reckon there will be a couple of upsets. There usually is.
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freedomburns
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2004, 04:35:21 am »
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There are seven states that I consider to still be toss-ups.  They are too close to call.  They will determine the final outcome, and I expect the final outcome to be within two points in each of these seven.  They are: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

I am not confident in predicting the election for either candidate.  There are too many states still in play and too many variables. 

Confidence Tally:
Kerry - 242
Bush - 213
Toss - 83

Final Tally:
Kerry - 304
Bush - 234

Popular Vote: 
Kerry - 51.0%
Bush - 47.0%
Other - 2.0%


Senate 50/50
House Dem 211, Rep 224

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Friar
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2004, 08:06:13 am »
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My map is based on prediction of 6-8% higher turnout than normal, which I believe will help Kerry big time. The turnout will not only carry all the battlegrounds for him but will win him also states that are barely Bush as CO, NV, WV and AR.

If I am wrong and turnout is not as big as I expect then Bush might carry some of the MI, WI, IA and MN as well as a sure wins in FL, NV, AR, WV and NM. Thus winning the election.

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Umengus
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2004, 08:30:51 am »
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http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/PREDMAPSP/pe2004471P9.png

Kerry: 50 (279)
Bush: 48 (259)

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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

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Jake
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2004, 10:24:47 am »
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EV
Bush  276
Kerry  261
FE          1

PV
Bush 49.0
Kerry 48.5
Nader     1
Badnarik 1
Other     .5
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London Man
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2004, 10:34:24 am »
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I'm with Al. I'll sit this out.
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Platypus
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2004, 02:35:00 pm »
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PV: Bush 49%, Kerry 49%
EV: Kerry 269, Bush 269

Closest states: 1. Iowa; 2. Wisconsin; 3. New Mexico.
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barefootguy
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« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2004, 03:41:11 pm »
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Here's mine: 



EV's

Kerry - 299

Bush - 238

1 abstain (from WV)

Popular Vote - Kerry 50.1 , Bush 49.6, Others .5

P.S.  I did NOT edit my predictions!!!  I simply left out a slash in the filename and my prediction didn't post first try!!!

« Last Edit: October 31, 2004, 03:47:12 pm by barefootguy »Logged
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StatesRights
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« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2004, 03:42:46 pm »
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Here's mine: 



EV's

Kerry - 299

Bush - 238

1 abstain (from WV)

Popular Vote - Kerry 50.1 , Bush 49.6, Others .5



Corrected.
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King
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« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2004, 03:48:15 pm »
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Bush 295
Kerry 242
Badnarik 1 (from WV)

Popular Vote
Bush 50.2%
Kerry 48.6%
Nader 0.5%
Badnarik 0.4%
Peroutka 0.2%
Others 0.1%
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Light Touch
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« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2004, 04:08:45 pm »
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Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Badnarik 1%
Nader 1%
Others 1%
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Alcon
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« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2004, 04:14:27 pm »
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Wow, I hope that this doesn't actually happen. But it's my latest prediction.



Bush 269
Kerry 268
Abstain 1

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%
Badnarik 1%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
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Alcon
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2004, 05:57:38 pm »
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Refined my prediction yet again:



Bush 296
Kerry 241
Abstain 1

I also now have individual popular vote projections for the states:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=11699
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n/c
NHPolitico
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« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2004, 06:18:35 pm »
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PV...

Bush-Cheney: 52.1%
Kerry-Edwards: 46.6%
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« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2004, 08:53:02 pm »
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Here is mine.  And my dog's.



Bush 306
Kerry 232
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Harry
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« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2004, 10:55:00 pm »
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There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!
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Erc
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« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2004, 12:17:38 am »
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Bush 300 - Kerry 238

Maybe a bit optimistic on WI & NH, but ah well.

Bush wins 50.2-47.8 in the EV, 1 to Nader and 1 to various others
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A18
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2004, 12:23:01 am »
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It would be great to see Bush get an even 300
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2004, 01:59:29 am »
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Bush - 321
Kerry - 217
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Never any doubt.
Citizen James
James42
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« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2004, 03:01:21 am »
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Let's see if I can get the image to post:



Kerry 297
Bush 240
Faithless 1 (WV)

Final tally:
Kerry 52
Bush 46.5
Others:1.5%

Badnarik > Cobb > Petrokia > Nader.

I think turnout will be very high, and though Bush will do well in his strongholds Kerry will carry the day in most of the battleground states.  I am calling Virginia for Kerry on the theory that high voter turnout in the NoVa suburbs will tip the ballance over to his side.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2004, 03:04:07 am »
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There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!

That's cool...but like Smash Mouth said, "Tomorrow's gonna hurt..."
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raggage
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« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2004, 03:25:21 am »
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There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!

That's cool...but like Smash Mouth said, "Tomorrow's gonna hurt..."

But "Bush was looking kinda dumb with his finger and his thumb in the shape of an L on his forehead"
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KerryAlva
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« Reply #49 on: November 01, 2004, 03:53:06 am »
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My Prediction:

Kerry: 293
Bush: 245

States to note:

Colorado and New Mexico are Kerry because of the heavy hispanic turnout tomorrow.

Bush wins Florida, but loses Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Virginia will probably go Bush. but is a tossup

New Hampshire switch sides and goes Kerry

Senate:

GOP pads lead in Senate to 55-45 (net gain of 4).  They gain South Dakota, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, and North Carolina and the GOP loses Illinois and Oklahoma and the Dems will gain the other Oklahoma Senate Seat in 2008.

Dems gain ground in the House.  Current makeup is 226-208-1.  The Dems will pick up 6 seats, 4 in Texas and 1 in Oklahoma CD 1, and 1 elsewhere, and the independent turns Democrat making the new House makeup 222-213.
Tom DeLay is one of the congressmen that will lose.
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I am a Conservative GOP supporting John Kerry because I believe America needs a fresh start.  I want to see both parties forced to work together.  I want to see more of the coalition brought back to the table in support of Iraq and I want our troops home ASAP! He will cut taxes for the middle class
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