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| | |-+  The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest  (Read 23124 times)
Rococo4
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2004, 02:07:28 am »
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I am having trouble getting my map up.....i'll work on it tomorrow

But My Final Pick:
Bush 31 states, 289 EV, 49.4% PV
Kerry 20 states, 249 EV, 48.4% PV

Changes from 00

Kerry gains NH
Bush gains MN, NM
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The Duke
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2004, 02:52:18 am »
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Quote from: Scam of God on December 24, 2009, 11:27:46 am
Shut you hole... Conservatism is dead. I hope I get to see your head paraded on a pike with it.
Sibboleth
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2004, 03:00:01 am »
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Hmm... no idea... everything is too messed up. I'll sit this out.

Although I reckon there will be a couple of upsets. There usually is.
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2004, 03:31:31 am »
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Behold:

Bush:  271
Kerry:  267
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freedomburns
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2004, 04:35:21 am »
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There are seven states that I consider to still be toss-ups.  They are too close to call.  They will determine the final outcome, and I expect the final outcome to be within two points in each of these seven.  They are: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

I am not confident in predicting the election for either candidate.  There are too many states still in play and too many variables. 

Confidence Tally:
Kerry - 242
Bush - 213
Toss - 83

Final Tally:
Kerry - 304
Bush - 234

Popular Vote: 
Kerry - 51.0%
Bush - 47.0%
Other - 2.0%

Senate 50/50
House Dem 211, Rep 224

fb
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Friar
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2004, 08:06:13 am »
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My map is based on prediction of 6-8% higher turnout than normal, which I believe will help Kerry big time. The turnout will not only carry all the battlegrounds for him but will win him also states that are barely Bush as CO, NV, WV and AR.

If I am wrong and turnout is not as big as I expect then Bush might carry some of the MI, WI, IA and MN as well as a sure wins in FL, NV, AR, WV and NM. Thus winning the election.
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Umengus
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2004, 08:30:51 am »
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http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/PREDMAPSP/pe2004471P9.png

Kerry: 50 (279)
Bush: 48 (259)
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2004, 10:24:47 am »
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EV
Bush  276
Kerry  261
FE          1

PV
Bush 49.0
Kerry 48.5
Nader     1
Badnarik 1
Other     .5
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London Man
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2004, 10:34:24 am »
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I'm with Al. I'll sit this out.
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« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2004, 02:35:00 pm »
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PV: Bush 49%, Kerry 49%
EV: Kerry 269, Bush 269

Closest states: 1. Iowa; 2. Wisconsin; 3. New Mexico.
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barefootguy
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« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2004, 03:41:11 pm »
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Here's mine: 



EV's

Kerry - 299

Bush - 238

1 abstain (from WV)

Popular Vote - Kerry 50.1 , Bush 49.6, Others .5

P.S.  I did NOT edit my predictions!!!  I simply left out a slash in the filename and my prediction didn't post first try!!!
« Last Edit: October 31, 2004, 03:47:12 pm by barefootguy »Logged
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StatesRights
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« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2004, 03:42:46 pm »
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Quote from: barefootguy on October 31, 2004, 03:41:11 pm
Here's mine: 



EV's

Kerry - 299

Bush - 238

1 abstain (from WV)

Popular Vote - Kerry 50.1 , Bush 49.6, Others .5



Corrected.
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King
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« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2004, 03:48:15 pm »
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Bush 295
Kerry 242
Badnarik 1 (from WV)

Popular Vote
Bush 50.2%
Kerry 48.6%
Nader 0.5%
Badnarik 0.4%
Peroutka 0.2%
Others 0.1%
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Light Touch
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« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2004, 04:08:45 pm »
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Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Badnarik 1%
Nader 1%
Others 1%
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2004, 04:14:27 pm »
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Wow, I hope that this doesn't actually happen. But it's my latest prediction.



Bush 269
Kerry 268
Abstain 1

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%
Badnarik 1%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
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n/c
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Alcon
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« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2004, 05:57:38 pm »
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Refined my prediction yet again:



Bush 296
Kerry 241
Abstain 1

I also now have individual popular vote projections for the states:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=11699
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n/c
NHPolitico
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« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2004, 06:18:35 pm »
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PV...

Bush-Cheney: 52.1%
Kerry-Edwards: 46.6%
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« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2004, 08:53:02 pm »
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Here is mine.  And my dog's.



Bush 306
Kerry 232
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Harry
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« Reply #43 on: October 31, 2004, 10:55:00 pm »
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There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!
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Erc
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2004, 12:17:38 am »
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Bush 300 - Kerry 238

Maybe a bit optimistic on WI & NH, but ah well.

Bush wins 50.2-47.8 in the EV, 1 to Nader and 1 to various others
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A18
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« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2004, 12:23:01 am »
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It would be great to see Bush get an even 300
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2004, 01:59:29 am »
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Bush - 321
Kerry - 217
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
Citizen James
James42
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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2004, 03:01:21 am »
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Let's see if I can get the image to post:



Kerry 297
Bush 240
Faithless 1 (WV)

Final tally:
Kerry 52
Bush 46.5
Others:1.5%

Badnarik > Cobb > Petrokia > Nader.

I think turnout will be very high, and though Bush will do well in his strongholds Kerry will carry the day in most of the battleground states.  I am calling Virginia for Kerry on the theory that high voter turnout in the NoVa suburbs will tip the ballance over to his side.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2004, 03:04:07 am »
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Quote from: Senator Harry on October 31, 2004, 10:55:00 pm

There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!

That's cool...but like Smash Mouth said, "Tomorrow's gonna hurt..."
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« Reply #49 on: November 01, 2004, 03:25:21 am »
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Quote from: AuH2O on November 01, 2004, 03:04:07 am
Quote from: Senator Harry on October 31, 2004, 10:55:00 pm

There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!

That's cool...but like Smash Mouth said, "Tomorrow's gonna hurt..."

But "Bush was looking kinda dumb with his finger and his thumb in the shape of an L on his forehead"
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Economic Left/Right: -5.12
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.72

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