The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2024, 09:57:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7
Author Topic: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest  (Read 43231 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: November 01, 2004, 03:58:43 AM »

My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!? Wink
Logged
KerryAlva
Rookie
**
Posts: 16


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: November 01, 2004, 04:16:55 AM »

My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!? Wink

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: November 01, 2004, 04:29:22 AM »

My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!? Wink

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.
Yeah, either of those three would be enough for Bush...then again, if I skew it an additional point, we pick up FL and hold WI, too. .)
Logged
KerryAlva
Rookie
**
Posts: 16


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: November 01, 2004, 04:39:48 AM »

My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!? Wink

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.
Yeah, either of those three would be enough for Bush...then again, if I skew it an additional point, we pick up FL and hold WI, too. .)

Another very real possibility
Logged
Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: November 01, 2004, 08:41:44 AM »

https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/PREDMAPSP/pe20045213P19.png

Kerry - 289
Bush - 249
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: November 01, 2004, 08:50:25 AM »

Lets try to lessen up the chat here and lets see some maps. Smiley
Logged
Mort from NewYawk
MortfromNewYawk
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 399


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: November 01, 2004, 11:01:47 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2004, 11:30:34 AM by Mort from NewYawk »



This is certainly the most unpredictable election I've ever seen. The last minute Gallup polls notwithstanding, I'm gonna go with Mason-Dixon and my own feelings over the past few months that we'll see weak black turnout for Kerry in the Northeast and MidWest, and a stronger than expected turnout for Bush produced by evangelical churches in suburban and small town churches across the Midwest.

Bush: EV 348  PV 51%
Kerry  EV 190  PV 47%
Logged
Hearnes
A.B.B
Rookie
**
Posts: 16


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: November 01, 2004, 11:06:33 AM »

Kerry-Bush 311-227

Dems picking up Florida, Ohio and New Hampshire
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,260
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: November 01, 2004, 11:17:35 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2004, 11:28:53 AM by Senator Nym90 »



Kerry 272, Bush 266.

Modified only to fix the URL.

Logged
12th Doctor
supersoulty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,584
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: November 01, 2004, 11:36:39 AM »



Bush: 306

Kerry: 230

Abstain: 2

Popular:

Bush: 50.9%

Kerry:47.8%
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: November 01, 2004, 11:58:44 AM »

Ah... O.K. You guys win. Here they are:




When the chips are down, the polls make no bloody sense at all.

So instead of a conventional prediction map mine is... different

Basically the prediction map is the most probable (assuming the polls are correct. Oh dear) outcome... well... sort of.

But the *important* map is the confidence map is a shock map: if either candidate wins in any grey state that result would not actually *shock* me. Sure in several cases it's *very* unlikely, but better semi-safe than very, very sorry.
If Kerry wins a Dark Blue State or if Bush wins a Dark Red State I *will* be shocked.
Hence the name "shock map".

Oh yes... EV totals:

Kerry: 271
Bush: 266
Robb: 1 (well... he *is* an egomaniac...)

Popular Vote:

Kerry: 50%
Bush: 49.5%
Other: 0.5%

Now THAT is a complete guess
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: November 01, 2004, 12:07:00 PM »

Oh, yes -
my shock map is Al's minus Va, Or, and Mi.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: November 01, 2004, 12:14:55 PM »

Oh, yes -
my shock map is Al's minus Va, Or, and Mi.

Great Minds think alike.
So do fools... Wink
Logged
MHS2002
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,642


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: November 01, 2004, 12:57:40 PM »



EV:
Bush 285
Kerry 252
Abstain 1 (WV Elector)

Bush 49.9%
Kerry 48.9%
Others 1.2%
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: November 01, 2004, 01:17:31 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2004, 01:20:31 PM by Democratic 'Hawk' »

Kerry 291 Bush 247



Dave
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: November 01, 2004, 01:18:59 PM »


Still not working.

O.K...
Go to www.freewebs.com
Register a free acount (takes hardly any time at all)
Upload the image
Go to site manager and add it to a webpage (they generate these automatically)
Save webpage.
Do the adress thingy and post the img.
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,703
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: November 01, 2004, 01:26:09 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2004, 01:30:18 PM by Democratic 'Hawk' »

Kerry 291 Bush 247





Thanks Al

Dave
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,388
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: November 01, 2004, 02:06:15 PM »



Kerry 272  49.7%
Bush 265  47.5%
Abstain 1
Logged
classical liberal
RightWingNut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: November 01, 2004, 02:41:42 PM »

Kerry 284 49.1%
Bush 254 50.1%


Logged
Bogart
bogart414
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 603
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: November 01, 2004, 03:24:26 PM »

Sen. John Kerry - 242
Pres. George Bush - 296



Popular

Bush 49%
Kerry 49%
Other 2%
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: November 01, 2004, 03:33:47 PM »

Note that the prediction section will close tonight at 11pm EST.  This has more to do with massive load tomorrow than with timing of data.

Also - for those of you who haven't linked your forum and Atlas accounts, you can do so at My Atlas

This gives you your own customized prediction icon and quick link to your prediction just below your avatar.
Logged
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,778


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: November 01, 2004, 03:52:43 PM »

I could spend some time debating which poll to go on, but the forum seems to agree that the polls went haywire this weekend. So let's go from the gut.

I posted version 2 on Mar 3 after Kerry was the presumptive nominee. On Aug 21, I posted version 3, changing OR and NM back to Kerry and ME CD2 to Bush. Polls might cause me to switch NM and ME2 back to the Mar 3 prediction, but I've already commented on our collective opinion of those polls. Also, I've missed NM in almost every election I've predicted going back to 1976, so why stop now.

So, I shall blindly ignore the Swift Boat vets, the RNC, the debates, and everyone's final polls. My final call is from Aug 21, 2004. For President: Bush 292, Kerry 246, if electors vote as selected. With an abstemption on each side it becomes Bush 291, Kerry 245. Popular vote: Bush 50%, Kerry 48%, others 2%.

Logged
Volrath50
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 814
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: November 01, 2004, 03:59:23 PM »

Final Prediction:


Kerry: 299
Bush: 238
Faithless: 1

Popular Vote:
Bush: 49.2
Kerry: 48.8
Logged
angus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,423
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: November 01, 2004, 04:02:56 PM »

muon2
I like your prediction, except for Iowa and NM.  I'll assume you don't buy into the Albuquerque News poll of bush +3, and another recent poll with Bush +4. 

I think Bush wins too, but gets fewer actual votes than Kerry, since the plurality will go to the challenger.  that's always fun  Wink

we'll see...
Logged
riceowl
riceowl315
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: November 01, 2004, 05:32:27 PM »

I'm boring!!!



Bush - 295
Kerry - 242
1 fe
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 11 queries.