UK Prediction Thread

[Bacon King]

Enter the prediction contest if you want! Scoring is in this post.

Overall Vote Share

Conservative:
Labour:
Liberal Democrat:
Other:


Seat Share (Non-NI)

Conservative:
Labor:
Liberal Democrat:
Plaid Cymru:
Scottish National Party:
Other:



Vote Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP:
SDLP:
SF:
TUV:
UCU-NF:
Alliance:
Green:
Other:



Seat Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP:
SDLP:
SF:
UCU-NF:
Independent:
Other:



Resulting Post Election Government




Constituency giving largest vote share for each party

Conservative:
Labour:
Liberal Democrat:



Constituency result in Buckingham

John Bercow (Speaker):
Nigel Farage (UKIP):
other:



Green vote share in Brighton Pavilion (& do they win the seat?)



BNP vote share in Barking (& do they win the seat?)



Closest Seat (w/ voting plurality for winning party)

[Bacon King]

If there's enough interest in this I'll make a scoring system

[You kip if you want to...]

Overall Vote Share

Conservative: 35
Labour: 27
Liberal Democrat:27
Other:11

Resulting Post Election Government - Conservative minority

Not willing to predict the rest at the moment.

[Tuck!]

I'm out to lunch for now but I'd like to add that this is a very interesting idea that I will be happy to participate in tonight. Thanks for putting this up.

[Torie]

I will just repeat what I said a week ago.

Tories 37%
LD 29%
Labor 27%

Tory majority (very narrow - 331 seats)


I will sticking with my earlier numbers partly just for fun, and partly because I am guessing based on nothing that there might be a demoralization and thus turnout problem for Labor voters.

[Franzl]

I agree with Torie for the most part (except for the strong Lib Dems)

I predict:

Conservative 38
Labour 30
Lib Dem 23

Tory majority of seats as well.

[Phony Moderate]

Overall Vote Share:

Conservative - 35%
Labour - 30%
Liberal Democrat - 27%
Other - 8%

[Hash]

Lib Dem 23

lolwut?

[Franzl]

Lib Dem 23

lolwut?

I'm making a bold prediction

[bullmoose88]

Con-36%
Lab-29%
LD-28%
Others-7%

Con Minority Government: 310 or so seats.

UNS on my "guess" is Con 279, Lab 263, LD 80, Oth 28

[Verily]

Con: 35
Lab: 28
LD: 28
Others: 9 (excluding NI parties)

Con: 316
Lab: 199
LD: 102
SNP: 8
PC: 4
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Ind: 1 (Dai Davies)

----

DUP: 27
SF: 25
SDLP: 16
UCU-NF: 12
Alliance: 5
TUV: 4
Green: 2
Others: 9 (incl. independents)

DUP: 9
SF: 5
SDLP: 3
Ind: 1 (Sylvia Hermon)

----

Post-election government: Conservative minority with no pacts or agreements

----

Strongest seats:

Con: Epping Forest
Lab: Bootle
LD: Orkney and Shetland

----

Buckingham:

Bercow (Speaker): 58
Farage (UKIP): 31
Others: 11 (incl. BNP, OMRLP, CP and independents)

----

Brighton, Pavilion:

Lucas (Green): 35
Vere (Con): 29
Platts (Lab): 20
Millam (LD): 12
Others: 4 (incl. UKIP, SocLab and independents)

----

Barking:

Hodge (Lab): 46
Griffin (BNP): 30
Marcus (Con): 12
Carman (LD): 8
Others: 4 (incl. UKIP, Green, CP, OMRLP and independents)

----

Closest seat:

Newcastle-upon-Tyne East (LD over Lab)

(Closest seat is really, really random and hard to predict.)

[Sbane]

Con- 36%
Lab- 29%
LD- 27%

Conservatives don't get a majority but do much better than what UNS would say.

[Bacon King]

Okay, here's the grading system for those who want to play! It's out of a thousand points total. Anything you don't fill out will just count as zeroes.

Also, of course, everyone is free to continue posting guesses at seat and vote shares for bragging rights too However, assuming at least three people submit full predictions and this becomes a semblance of a real contest, the winner will be given accolades in my signature, which I won't change for at least a month.

Overall Vote Share
250 points total. Perfect score if exact. Minus ten points for every percent off (one point for each tenth of a percent, if you want to be exact).

Seat Share (Non-NI)
250 points total. Perfect score if exact. Minus five points for each seat off.

Vote Share (Northern Ireland)
100 points total. Perfect score if exact. Minus five points for each percent off (or a point for each .2%, to be exact).

Seat Share (Northern Ireland)
100 points total. Perfect score if exact. Minus five points for each number off.

Resulting Post Election Government
100 points total. Either you get it or you don't.

Constituency giving largest vote share for each party
75 points, 25 for each. Minus five points for each constituency that the party got a higher vote share than the one you predicted.

Constituency result in Buckingham
25 points total. Perfect score if exact. Minus a point for each percentage off.

Green vote share in Brighton Pavilion (& do they win the seat?)
25 points total. 10 for predicting whether Greens win. 15 for predicting Green vote share perfectly, minus a point for each percentage off.

BNP vote share in Barking (& do they win the seat?)
25 points total. 10 for predicting whether the BNP win. 15 for predicting BNP vote share perfectly, minus a point for each percentage off.

Closest Seat (w/ voting plurality for winning party)
50 points total if prediction is correct. Minus five points for each seat closer than the one predicted.

[hawkeye59]

Con- 36%
Lab- 29%
LD- 27%

Conservatives don't get a majority but do much better than what UNS would say.

Seems about right. I would say about 310 seats. Conservatives work out deal with Lib Dems, Cameron becomes PM.

[Silent Hunter]

Con- 36%
Lab- 29%
LD- 27%

Conservatives don't get a majority but do much better than what UNS would say.

Seems about right. I would say about 310 seats. Conservatives work out deal with Lib Dems, Cameron becomes PM.

I'd say that too, although put the Labour vote share down a point.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Overall Vote Share

Conservative: 37%
Labour: 27%
Liberal Democrat: 28%
Other: 8%

Seat Share (Non-NI)

Conservative: 320
Labour: 204
Liberal Democrat: 91
Plaid Cymru: 3
Scottish National Party: 8
Other: 6 (NI excluded)

Seat Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 10
SDLP: 3
SF: 4
Independent: 1

Resulting Post Election Government

Conservative Minority with support from DUP

[KuntaKinte]

I'll give it a try:

Overall Vote Share

Conservative: 35.2
Labour: 28.7
Liberal Democrat: 27.9
Other: 9.2


Seat Share (Non-NI)

Conservative: 296
Labor: 225
Liberal Democrat: 98
Plaid Cymru: 4
Scottish National Party: 7
Other: 2 (Northern Ireland excluded)



Vote Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 25.3
SDLP: 16.2
SF: 25.1
TUV: 7.2
UCU-NF: 10.5
Alliance: 4.4
Green: 1.7
Other: 10.6



Seat Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 9
SDLP: 3
SF: 5
Independent: 1



Resulting Post Election Government

Tory minority government.


Constituency giving largest vote share for each party

Conservative: Surrey East
Labour: Rhondda
Liberal Democrat: Ross Skye and Lochaber



Constituency result in Buckingham

John Bercow (Speaker): 55
Nigel Farage (UKIP): 28
other: 17



Green vote share in Brighton Pavilion (& do they win the seat?)

Greens: 27.5, and they don't win the seat.

BNP vote share in Barking (& do they win the seat?)

BNP 19.8, and they don't win the seat.

Closest Seat (w/ voting plurality for winning party)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone (SF over Independent)

[Tender Branson]

Popular Vote:

Conservatives: 36.4%
Liberal Democrats: 28.1%
Labour: 26.6%
UKIP: 2.4%
SNP: 1.6%
BNP: 1.5%
Greens: 1.4%
Others: 2.0%

Seats:

Conservatives: 302 seats
Labour:  227 seats
Liberal Democrats: 87 seats
Others: 34 seats

Turnout:

68.3%

[KuntaKinte]

Popular Vote:

Conservatives: 36.4%
Liberal Democrats: 28.1%
Labour: 26.6%
UKIP: 2.4%
SNP: 1.6%
BNP: 1.5%
Greens: 1.4%
Others: 2.0%

Not very much left for Northern Ireland, isn't it?

[Harry Hayfield]

Overall Vote Share

Conservative: 36% (+3%)
Labour: 27% (-9%)
Liberal Democrat: 27% (+4%)
Other: 10% (+2%)


Seat Share (Non-NI)

Conservative: 310 (+100)
Labour: 209 (-140)
Liberal Democrat: 100 (+38)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (+1)
Scottish National Party: 8 (+2)
Other: 2 (n/c)

Vote Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 25%
SDLP: 16%
SF: 24%
TUV: 7%
UCU-NF: 12%
Alliance: 8%
Green: 3%
Other: 5%

Seat Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 8
SDLP: 3
SF: 5
UCU-NF: 1
Independent: 1
Other: 0

Resulting Post Election Government

Conservative minority government in coalition with DUP, UCUP and Independent Unionist getting Lib Dem support on a Queen's Speech which includes STV for local elections from 2012 onwards

Constituency giving largest vote share for each party

Conservative: Witney
Labour: Rhondda
Liberal Democrat: Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Constituency result in Buckingham

John Bercow (Speaker): 37,000
Nigel Farage (UKIP): 8,500
other: 4,500

Green vote share in Brighton Pavilion (& do they win the seat?)

25%, No

BNP vote share in Barking (& do they win the seat?)

16%, No

Closest Seat (w/ voting plurality for winning party)

Brighton Pavillion (Too close to call, but Lab / Con / Lib Dem / Green seperated by no less than 1%)

[k-onmmunist]

Conservative: 36%
Labour: 29%
Lib Dem: 28%
Other: 7%

Turnout: 66%

[they don't love you like i love you]

Overall Vote Share

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 27%
Liberal Democrat: 31%
Other: 7%


Seat Share (Non-NI)

Conservative: 304
Labour: 234
Liberal Democrat: 102
Plaid Cymru: 3
Scottish National Party: 7
Other:



Vote Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP:
SDLP:
SF:
TUV:
UCU-NF:
Alliance:
Green:
Other:



Seat Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 9
SDLP: 3
SF: 5
Independent: 1



Resulting Post Election Government
Conservative Minority



Constituency giving largest vote share for each party

Conservative: Witney
Labour: Rhondda
Liberal Democrat: Orkney and Shetland



Constituency result in Buckingham

John Bercow (Speaker): 60
Nigel Farage (UKIP): 25
other: 15



Green vote share in Brighton Pavilion (& do they win the seat?)
25%, no


BNP vote share in Barking (& do they win the seat?)
15%, no


Closest Seat (w/ voting plurality for winning party)
Brighton Pavillion, Conservative win with 32%

[Oakvale]

Speculative vote share:

Conservative: 37%
Labour: 30%
Liberal Democrat: 24%
Other: 9%


I really think it's unlikely that the Lib Dems get second place any more, FWIW.

[Bacon King]

Overall Vote Share

Conservative: 34.2%
Labour: 28.1%
Liberal Democrat: 27.6%
Other: 8.1%


Seat Share (Non-NI)

Conservative: 308
Labor: 206
Liberal Democrat: 99
Plaid Cymru: 4
Scottish National Party: 7
Other: 4



Vote Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 31%
SDLP: 15%
SF: 28%
TUV: 5%
UCU-NF: 10%
Alliance: 4%
Green: 2%
Other: 5%



Seat Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 9
SDLP: 3
SF: 4
UCU-NF: 0
Independent: 2
Other: 0



Resulting Post Election Government

Conservative minority, DUP alliance.


Constituency giving largest vote share for each party

Conservative: Henley
Labour: Bootle
Liberal Democrat: Sheffield Hallam



Constituency result in Buckingham

John Bercow (Speaker): 69%
Nigel Farage (UKIP): 23%
other: 8%



Green vote share in Brighton Pavilion (& do they win the seat?)

33%, yes


BNP vote share in Barking (& do they win the seat?)

22%, no

Closest Seat (w/ voting plurality for winning party)

Cheltenham

[Franzl]

I agree with Torie for the most part (except for the strong Lib Dems)
I predict:

Conservative 38
Labour 30
Lib Dem 23

I'm quite happy with my prediction....even if I wasn't right about the Tory majority