UK Election - Results Thread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

First voting intention for the next election.

Con 38% (+1) Lab 34% (+4) LD 21% (-3). (changes on GE result)
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday

Interesting post-Brown bounce.

Only 5 years to go.

Which, based on UNS, would be:

Tories - 291 seats
Labour - 286 seats
Lib Dems - 45 seats
Others - 28 seats

Tories short by 35 seats of an overall majority

Is that UNS from the 2005 notionals or the 2010 results?  And if the latter, do you have a link to that 2010 swingometer?

[You kip if you want to...]

First voting intention for the next election.

Con 38% (+1) Lab 34% (+4) LD 21% (-3). (changes on GE result)
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday

Interesting post-Brown bounce.

Only 5 years to go.

Which, based on UNS, would be:

Tories - 291 seats
Labour - 286 seats
Lib Dems - 45 seats
Others - 28 seats

Tories short by 35 seats of an overall majority

Is that UNS from the 2005 notionals or the 2010 results?  And if the latter, do you have a link to that 2010 swingometer?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator

[minionofmidas]

Who recognizes what this map is of?

[minionofmidas]

The thing is - there is no way of knowing how many of those UKIP voters would have voted Tory otherwise. maybe they would not have voted at all or voted BNP? We could also look at ridings where Green party and various other leftwing candidates might have cost labour a seat or two. But in any of these exercises - 1+1 never seems to equal 2.

Well, certainly. (Whether or not the BNP had a candidate too certainly has an obvious effect on UKIP results. Ahem.) But at least theoretically UKIP voters should split fairly strongly in the Tories' favor - certainly more strongly than BNP voters. And the Greens and Respect were a serious presence in just a handful of seats (and it's not clear how Green voters would split as regards Labour/Lib Dem, anyways. Not Conservative, obviously.) I figured this one works just about well enough to try it as an intellectual exercise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My guess was that it was deposits saved by BNP and UKIP, but I didn't actually check.

[minionofmidas]

My guess was that it was deposits saved by BNP and UKIP, but I didn't actually check.

Correct as usual, sir.

BNP in Merseyside is interesting. -_-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stumbled on this (linky) and thought I'd post it here. Of course all the patterns there are pretty obvious, but surveys on the subject are rare. The regional element to Jewish voting patterns is quite interesting and not remarked on enough, IMO.

[You kip if you want to...]

My guess was that it was deposits saved by BNP and UKIP, but I didn't actually check.

Correct as usual, sir.

BNP in Merseyside is interesting. -_-

We're idiots, not bigots.

[k-onmmunist]

My guess was that it was deposits saved by BNP and UKIP, but I didn't actually check.

Correct as usual, sir.

BNP in Merseyside is interesting. -_-

We're idiots, not bigots.

Labour still usually wins over 70% of the vote in parts of Liverpool. The only major threat since the 1930s was from Militant... who were even further left Ah, one of the many reasons I love Liverpool.

[You kip if you want to...]

My guess was that it was deposits saved by BNP and UKIP, but I didn't actually check.

Correct as usual, sir.

BNP in Merseyside is interesting. -_-

We're idiots, not bigots.

Labour still usually wins over 70% of the vote in parts of Liverpool. The only major threat since the 1930s was from Militant... who were even further left Ah, one of the many reasons I love Liverpool.

I love that the city swung towards Labour this time round and we still only have two Tories (if you wanna count Wirral West as Merseyside).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voting Labour has become something part of the identity of people from Liverpool and surrounds. Labour are also better organised there than most places; which is a very recent development.

[adma]

Labour still usually wins over 70% of the vote in parts of Liverpool. The only major threat since the 1930s was from Militant... who were even further left Ah, one of the many reasons I love Liverpool.

Do the post-David Alton Liberals (Democratic or otherwise) count?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour still usually wins over 70% of the vote in parts of Liverpool. The only major threat since the 1930s was from Militant... who were even further left Ah, one of the many reasons I love Liverpool.

Do the post-David Alton Liberals (Democratic or otherwise) count?

Other than Alton, they've never been much of a threat in General Elections (despite over-hyped campaigns like the one in Wavertree this year). Though Liverpool was more Tory than most cities until the 60s when it suddenly lurched about ten miles to the left and has kept moving in that direction ever since...

[minionofmidas]

That's when the Orangist Skilled Working Classes fled to the suburbs and left only Irish Lumpenproletariat behind.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's when the Orangist Skilled Working Classes fled to the suburbs and left only Irish Lumpenproletariat behind.

Actually it's more that much of the Irish Lumpenproletariat was moved out to places like Kirkby, Runcorn and Skelmersdale, while the decline of the Port of Liverpool meant that the Orangist Skilled Working Classes were suddenly much poorer than they used to be.

[minionofmidas]

That's when the Orangist Skilled Working Classes fled to the suburbs and left only Irish Lumpenproletariat behind.

Actually it's more that much of the Irish Lumpenproletariat was moved out to places like Kirkby, Runcorn and Skelmersdale, while the decline of the Port of Liverpool meant that the Orangist Skilled Working Classes were suddenly much poorer than they used to be.

And maybe had no Irish on their doorsteps anymore to instinctively vote against?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And maybe had no Irish on their doorsteps anymore to instinctively vote against?

Not as many, anyway. Though I've always suspected that most Orange Voters were pretty old by the 1950s and the one reason for the decline of the Orange Vote was simply Orange Voters dying off.

[minionofmidas]

And maybe had no Irish on their doorsteps anymore to instinctively vote against?

Not as many, anyway. Though I've always suspected that most Orange Voters were pretty old by the 1950s and the one reason for the decline of the Orange Vote was simply Orange Voters dying off.

...and their kids not following the old habit?

Shouldnt that lead to a more gradual (though just as terminal) decline?
Or I guess the Tory slum vote was highly dependent on a GOTV operation, and therefore just succumbed without a trace when it dropped below a certain critical mass. In which case many with Tory family traditions are now longterm nonvoters, of which Liverpool certainly has unusually many.
Though this year's election doesn't square with that. Liverpool's Labour swing went hand in hand with an above-average turnout increase; other places (Hull, for instance) had lower turnouts than Liverpool this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and their kids not following the old habit?

Obviously not. Though I think it's important to seperate the decline of sectarianism in Liverpool from the decline of sectarian voting in Liverpool; the latter happened before the former. Some things to consider would be the changes to Liverpool's economic structure and the emergence of a fairly strong municipal Labour machine (quite right-wing and linked to unions, as they usually were) in the 1950s. Harold Wilson being Labour leader can't have hurt, either.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Possible. I'm not sure if that's ever been researched, actually. One of the last working class Tory wards in Liverpool was Warbreck; this year they polled 3.8% there.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Since Thatcher, the Tories have been The Enemy as far as most people in Liverpool are concerned.

[Phony Moderate]

I'm suprised that the BNP don't have much support in Liverpool or Manchester.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm suprised that the BNP don't have much support in Liverpool or Manchester.

They've polled fairly well in parts of North Manchester at times, though fell back this year; a BNP candidate was second and 16% behind Labour in Higher Blackley in 2008 and third and 41% behind this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls in Thirsk & Malton will open in a few hours. Anything other than a massive Tory win would be a major shock (we're talking East Belfast levels of shock here). If the patterns of the General Election are repeated, the LibDem will finish second. Minor parties might do alright; there's a degree of support for the Wee Free Liberals in parts of the constituency and, you know, fascist farmers do sometimes like them some UKIP.

There's no point in having a seperate thread.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thirsk & Malton reported to be Tory first, LibDem second, Labour third. In other words, the order seen in all other constituencies like it in the General Election. Turnout about 50%; a record low for that part of the world (lol). But higher than South Staffs. five years ago.

[bullmoose88]

Thirsk & Malton reported to be Tory first, LibDem second, Labour third. In other words, the order seen in all other constituencies like it in the General Election. Turnout about 50%; a record low for that part of the world (lol). But higher than South Staffs. five years ago.

Any signs that the Lib Dems are being punished for the coalition?  (ie a swing from Lib Dem to Labour)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Result in. Yawn. Patterns exactly the same as in other North Yorkshire constituencies early in the month. But we can finish our maps off now.