UK Election - Results Thread

[Smid]

So the LibDem vote share lifted by 5.76%? Obviously difficult to interpret given the low turnout figures, but that would perhaps suggest that LibDem voters are not overly concerned that the party has formed a coalition with the Tories, despite the indignant outrage displayed earlier this month.

[Meeker]

So much for the collapse in Lib Dem grassroots support.

[minionofmidas]

So the LibDem vote share lifted by 5.76%? Obviously difficult to interpret given the low turnout figures, but that would perhaps suggest that LibDem voters are not overly concerned that the party has formed a coalition with the Tories, despite the indignant outrage displayed earlier this month.

It's not the place to look for such a swing - it's neither a winnable LD-Tory seat (where the LD coalition obviously includes a lot of soft support that might go Labour in a PR vote) nor one of those urban Social Liberal kind of places a la Cambride, Norwich or whatever. (Indeed, it's pretty hugely rural.)
In other words, if a major LD-to-Labour swing as a result of the coalition happened even here, you could start treating the most over-the-top doom scenarios you've heard anywhere as reality.
Also in other words, the seats where this deal is likely to hurt the LDs most are the places where being hurt hurts the LDs most in terms of seats. If the IRV deal comes to nowt, that is.

[afleitch]

Oh and CON HOLD Thirsk and Malton

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/york_and_north_yorkshire/10168608.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talk of swings misses the point anyway; this wasn't a by-election. Any comparision is to 2005.

---

Fwiw, Ryedale in 1983 was: Con 59, Lib 30, Labour 10.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maps updated:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2804
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2825

A couple of errors in one corrected as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Election petitions (ie; attempting to get the result overturned in court) have been lodged in two constituencies (Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Oldham East & Saddleworth) and may be lodged in a third (Hendon). The defeated LibDem in OE&S claims that untrue claims in Labour leaflets caused his defeat, and the defeated Labour incumbent in Hendon is unhappy about the administration of election.

[Peter]

I've heard that the Fermangh challenge will be along the same lines as the controversy in Winchester in 1997 - i.e. some ballots not having the official stamp/mark and when the Court counts them, if they would have changed the result (not impossible when the majority is 4!) then it could be thrown out.

The OE&S challenge is unlikely to succeed - the "wooing Muslim voters" can be cast as simply stating an opinion and cannot meet the legal tests for falsity required under the Representation of the People Act 1983. The Rose and The Examiner in which most of the offending articles can be found are not endorsed by the candidate or his agent, therefore probably can't be considered by the Court.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A by-election in FST would be 'fun'.

[Јas]

I've heard that the Fermangh challenge will be along the same lines as the controversy in Winchester in 1997 - i.e. some ballots not having the official stamp/mark and when the Court counts them, if they would have changed the result (not impossible when the majority is 4!) then it could be thrown out.

Yeah, it's (I think) 36 ballots which come under question in that regard - and were the subject of some deliberation during the recounts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rudi Vis, the Dutch-born economist who unexpectedly won Finchley for Labour in 1997 and held it until his retirement this year - has died of cancer. He was 69.

Couldn't think of anywhere else to put this. RIP.

[The Mikado]

Quick question: If a Tory seat eventually opens up for by-election, will the Libs challenge it (and vice versa)?  I'm assuming yes, but it's worth checking.

[Bacon King]

Quick question: If a Tory seat eventually opens up for by-election, will the Libs challenge it (and vice versa)?  I'm assuming yes, but it's worth checking.

I assume if the Tories and Lib Dems were to have such an agreement, it would have been part of the initial coalition negotiations.

[Serenity Now]

Rudi Vis, the Dutch-born economist who unexpectedly won Finchley for Labour in 1997 and held it until his retirement this year - has died of cancer. He was 69.

Couldn't think of anywhere else to put this. RIP.

RIP

[Phony Moderate]

Rudi Vis, the Dutch-born economist who unexpectedly won Finchley for Labour in 1997 and held it until his retirement this year - has died of cancer. He was 69.

Couldn't think of anywhere else to put this. RIP.

Very sad news. RIP Rudi Vis.

[You kip if you want to...]

Quick question: If a Tory seat eventually opens up for by-election, will the Libs challenge it (and vice versa)?  I'm assuming yes, but it's worth checking.

I think so. They challenged Thirsk & Malton.

[Hash]

Quick question: If a Tory seat eventually opens up for by-election, will the Libs challenge it (and vice versa)?  I'm assuming yes, but it's worth checking.

I think so. They challenged Thirsk & Malton.

They couldn't legally have their candidate drop out in Thirsk & Malton, iirc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Epic hostile review is epic: http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/2010/07/book-review-times-guide-2010.html

[Phony Moderate]

(Sorry to bump)

Just looking at some of the results on Wikipedia (again). Hartlepool was, er, interesting. What happened there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Sorry to bump)

Just looking at some of the results on Wikipedia (again). Hartlepool was, er, interesting. What happened there?

By-election afterglow wearing off, return of a large number of Tories to the mother party. Hartlepool has traditionally been one of the best (always a bit of a relative term, of course) parts of County Durham for the Tories. Fwiw, the best entirely Durham constituency for the Tories was Darlington.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

(Sorry to bump)

Just looking at some of the results on Wikipedia (again). Hartlepool was, er, interesting. What happened there?

By-election afterglow wearing off, return of a large number of Tories to the mother party. Hartlepool has traditionally been one of the best (always a bit of a relative term, of course) parts of County Durham for the Tories. Fwiw, the best entirely Durham constituency for the Tories was Darlington.

It's worth pointing out that the only time the Tories have won Hartlepool since the Second World War was in 1959, and that was mainly because the candidate then was Commander Kerans, who won almost entirely because of his role in the Yangtse Incident.  Kerans didn't seek re-election in 1964.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh yeah, there's no doubt that 1959 was a bit of a fluke there. But The Hartlepools (as was) had never been Labour before 1945 (Labour were usually a poor third in the inter-war years) and was a marginal throughout the post-war period. Much of that has to do with its isolation from the rest of County Durham. Insert monkey-related sneer here.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Election petitions (ie; attempting to get the result overturned in court) have been lodged in two constituencies (Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Oldham East & Saddleworth) and may be lodged in a third (Hendon). The defeated LibDem in OE&S claims that untrue claims in Labour leaflets caused his defeat, and the defeated Labour incumbent in Hendon is unhappy about the administration of election.

Update on the petitions:
- The Fermanagh and South Tyrone result was upheld - the scrutiny found a discrepancy of only three votes between the ballot boxes and the ballot paper accounts, not enough to overturn the majority.
- Old & Sad verdict is due on 5th November.
- The putative Hendon petition wasn't pursued.

[You kip if you want to...]

Election petitions (ie; attempting to get the result overturned in court) have been lodged in two constituencies (Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Oldham East & Saddleworth) and may be lodged in a third (Hendon). The defeated LibDem in OE&S claims that untrue claims in Labour leaflets caused his defeat, and the defeated Labour incumbent in Hendon is unhappy about the administration of election.

Update on the petitions:
- The Fermanagh and South Tyrone result was upheld - the scrutiny found a discrepancy of only three votes between the ballot boxes and the ballot paper accounts, not enough to overturn the majority.
- Old & Sad verdict is due on 5th November.
- The putative Hendon petition wasn't pursued.

How's it looking for Oldham? Surely he wouldn't have been made a shadow minister if Miliband thought that there'd be a by-election.