UK 2010: post election speculation thread

[Joe Republic]

I think it is either Con/LibDem coalition or a second election this year.

Likely both, I'd say.

[J. J.]

I don't know, but the queen can refuse a dissolution request if she thinks that a government can be formed. So, if the Tories go as a minority without the LibDems, she could say no to Dave should he try and have an election at the end of the year.

I'm aware of the Lascelles Principles, but that might not apply in this case.  The key is that,  "the existing Parliament was still vital, viable, and capable of doing its job."  Arguably, if the government was defeated, and there was no alternative PM, that condition could not be met.

I think the Queen would need to call a second election in that case.

Alternately, if a minority Tory government (or a minority Labour government) could function, there would not need to be dissolution.

[Хahar 🤔]

Will Brown go? I can't see him wanting to leave at this point.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Yeah I knew the spelling had to be off. I'm not the best at spelling crazy Welsh words past 2AM in what was going to be my last post before going to bed.

Just spell it how it's pronounced then. Cumree.

That's how you pronounce it?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

With the Lib Dems doing so poorly, and them not having much money for another election, do you think they would go back on their statement of not forming a coalition with Labour if another election is what looks like what will happen?

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah I knew the spelling had to be off. I'm not the best at spelling crazy Welsh words past 2AM in what was going to be my last post before going to bed.

Just spell it how it's pronounced then. Cumree.

That's how you pronounce it?

Well, obviously. It's Welsh.

[The Mikado]

Is there any chance that the Conservatives will throw a bone to the LibDems on electoral reform by offering some kind of reform that gives them something, but falls well short of full blown PR, or are the Tories going to insist on sticking with FPTP no matter what?  I'm wondering if maybe there's something they would be able to agree on that diminishes Labour's current structural advantage.

PR in the Lords. Job done.

Wouldn't a mostly-elected Lords be a much more active Lords, and, by extension, a Lords elected by PR have pretensions of being more legitimate than the HoC?  Couldn't you end up with a Lords that's gasp actually relevant most of the time?  I know it's already drifting in that direction, but you're talking a Lords with the ability to say, "The people put us in here to..." every time they disagree with the Commons.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is there any chance that the Conservatives will throw a bone to the LibDems on electoral reform by offering some kind of reform that gives them something, but falls well short of full blown PR, or are the Tories going to insist on sticking with FPTP no matter what?  I'm wondering if maybe there's something they would be able to agree on that diminishes Labour's current structural advantage.

PR in the Lords. Job done.

Wouldn't a mostly-elected Lords be a much more active Lords, and, by extension, a Lords elected by PR have pretensions of being more legitimate than the HoC?  Couldn't you end up with a Lords that's gasp actually relevant most of the time?  I know it's already drifting in that direction, but you're talking a Lords with the ability to say, "The people put us in here to..." every time they disagree with the Commons.

This would be bad. Unicameralism has worked fine for Britain.

[Tuck!]

Is there any chance that the Conservatives will throw a bone to the LibDems on electoral reform by offering some kind of reform that gives them something, but falls well short of full blown PR, or are the Tories going to insist on sticking with FPTP no matter what?  I'm wondering if maybe there's something they would be able to agree on that diminishes Labour's current structural advantage.

PR in the Lords. Job done.

Wouldn't a mostly-elected Lords be a much more active Lords, and, by extension, a Lords elected by PR have pretensions of being more legitimate than the HoC?  Couldn't you end up with a Lords that's gasp actually relevant most of the time?  I know it's already drifting in that direction, but you're talking a Lords with the ability to say, "The people put us in here to..." every time they disagree with the Commons.

This would be bad. Unicameralism has worked fine for Britain.

Yes it has.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is there any chance that the Conservatives will throw a bone to the LibDems on electoral reform by offering some kind of reform that gives them something, but falls well short of full blown PR, or are the Tories going to insist on sticking with FPTP no matter what?  I'm wondering if maybe there's something they would be able to agree on that diminishes Labour's current structural advantage.

PR in the Lords. Job done.

Wouldn't a mostly-elected Lords be a much more active Lords, and, by extension, a Lords elected by PR have pretensions of being more legitimate than the HoC?  Couldn't you end up with a Lords that's gasp actually relevant most of the time?  I know it's already drifting in that direction, but you're talking a Lords with the ability to say, "The people put us in here to..." every time they disagree with the Commons.

This would be bad. Unicameralism has worked fine for Britain.

Yes it has.

I don't even undersatnd why people talk about reforming the House of Lords. Might as well aboloish it alltogether, make unicameralism official, and be very happy like most of the countries that only have one house in their parliaments. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Watching Andrew Marr interviewing people on BBC. Tories praising LibDems, LibDems praising Tories. I getting more and more convinced that there will be an alliance between them.

[minionofmidas]

Is there any chance that the Conservatives will throw a bone to the LibDems on electoral reform by offering some kind of reform that gives them something, but falls well short of full blown PR, or are the Tories going to insist on sticking with FPTP no matter what?  I'm wondering if maybe there's something they would be able to agree on that diminishes Labour's current structural advantage.

PR in the Lords. Job done.

Wouldn't a mostly-elected Lords be a much more active Lords, and, by extension, a Lords elected by PR have pretensions of being more legitimate than the HoC?  Couldn't you end up with a Lords that's gasp actually relevant most of the time?  I know it's already drifting in that direction, but you're talking a Lords with the ability to say, "The people put us in here to..." every time they disagree with the Commons.

Quite. You'd probably need a majority in both chambers to govern. There's also the question of whether the Lords would have fixed terms.

[minionofmidas]

If Clegg agrees to a deal with too few bones to the LDs, may we be seeing some defections?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's how you pronounce it?

Not quite, but it's about as close as someone who isn't a Welshman can manage.

[mileslunn]

I would think a Lib Dem-Tory coalition seems the most likely since despite their differences the Tories clearly won and if the Lib Dems backed the Labour Party there could be a backlash.  Besides the Lib Dems + Labour don't have enough seats, they would have to rely on the backing of the Plaid Cymru and Scottish National Party.  The biggest difficulty is on the issue of electoral reform, the two parties stand far apart.  One solution would be to promise a referendum on it and then each side could campaign on a different side.  I cannot speak for Britain, but here in Canada, three provinces have held referendums on changing their electoral system and all three went down in defeat, so for David Cameron he could argue to his party that he thinks such referendum wouldn't pass while for the Lib Dems saying we want electoral reform irrespective of what the population thinks probably wouldn't go over well.

[J. J.]

If Clegg agrees to a deal with too few bones to the LDs, may we be seeing some defections?

Even a 50% LibDem defection would still put the coalition in power, even without the Unionists.

[minionofmidas]

If Clegg agrees to a deal with too few bones to the LDs, may we be seeing some defections?

Even a 50% LibDem defection would still put the coalition in power, even without the Unionists.

So? What makes you think that might have conceivably been my point?

[J. J.]

If Clegg agrees to a deal with too few bones to the LDs, may we be seeing some defections?

Even a 50% LibDem defection would still put the coalition in power, even without the Unionists.

So? What makes you think that might have conceivably been my point?

I'm saying that the defections probably wouldn't matter too much.  The Tories are close enough.

[J. J.]

I would think a Lib Dem-Tory coalition seems the most likely since despite their differences the Tories clearly won and if the Lib Dems backed the Labour Party there could be a backlash.  Besides the Lib Dems + Labour don't have enough seats, they would have to rely on the backing of the Plaid Cymru and Scottish National Party.  The biggest difficulty is on the issue of electoral reform, the two parties stand far apart.  One solution would be to promise a referendum on it and then each side could campaign on a different side.  I cannot speak for Britain, but here in Canada, three provinces have held referendums on changing their electoral system and all three went down in defeat, so for David Cameron he could argue to his party that he thinks such referendum wouldn't pass while for the Lib Dems saying we want electoral reform irrespective of what the population thinks probably wouldn't go over well.

Actually, they could look at something that could give parties "extra MP's" when the don't meet their seat share, i.e. when they win fewer seats that their popular would indicate.  It wouldn't be strict PR, but it would have the effect of rewarding the third parties.

[Dan the Roman]

Its worth noting that in the Jenkins report on electoral reform in 1997, the Conservative minority report came out in favor of FPTP+, ie. FPTP with 15% top-up seats. Because of the way the election went, implementing this would add 126 seats to the Commons, zero of which would go to Labour, and about 76 of which would go to the Liberal Democrats(the Tories would pick up around 16, UKIP 19. Combined with normalizing seat populations and doing another boundary commission(which combined might earn the Tories another 22 seats, this is something that might be appropriate for both parties involved, and would have the benefit of absolutely destroying Labour's ability to win a majority on its own for the foreseeable future.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If Clegg agrees to a deal with too few bones to the LDs, may we be seeing some defections?

Even a 50% LibDem defection would still put the coalition in power, even without the Unionists.

That would still be another huge blow to the LibDems after an already disappointing loss.

[Meeker]

Lewis wasn't trying to say that the LibDems might lose enough members to make a coalition impossible. Just simply musing whether a number of hardcore MP's/enemies of Clegg might jump ship if the package isn't sweet enough.

[minionofmidas]

Lewis wasn't trying to say that the LibDems might lose enough members to make a coalition impossible.

Quite. I'm dumb but not that dumb.

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Or just enemies of the Tories.
Especially those who (as many LDs ought to) fear about their reelection chances if associated with a Tory government.

An actual *schism* (and anything above a handful of people would be that) is not going to happen, though.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wonder how Charles Kennedy or Ming Campbell would be handling this situation.

[J. J.]

If Clegg agrees to a deal with too few bones to the LDs, may we be seeing some defections?

Even a 50% LibDem defection would still put the coalition in power, even without the Unionists.

That would still be another huge blow to the LibDems after an already disappointing loss.

They would have a chance to shine in government, and some form of PR could be worked out.  There might also be an election pact where the Tories won't contest some seats.