What % of the black vote will Obama win in 2012?
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  What % of the black vote will Obama win in 2012?
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Poll
Question: .
#1
Below 90%
 
#2
91%
 
#3
92%
 
#4
93%
 
#5
94%
 
#6
95%
 
#7
96%
 
#8
97%
 
#9
98%
 
#10
99%
 
#11
100%
 
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Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: What % of the black vote will Obama win in 2012?  (Read 1112 times)
Bo
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« on: May 07, 2010, 08:00:18 PM »

97%
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California8429
A-Bob
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2010, 08:33:28 PM »

91%
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2010, 11:10:08 PM »

For reference, Obama won 95% of the black vote in 2008, an improvement over Kerry's 89%.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2010, 11:52:11 PM »

depends on who runs against him and how well he does overall, but I would guess anywhere from 89%-96%
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2010, 12:32:01 AM »

     I'll guess 93%.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2010, 12:41:33 AM »

Probably in the low 90's.
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2010, 02:29:20 AM »

I think a better question to ask would be what percentage of the HISPANIC vote will Obama win in 2012? After the Arizona law and nominating Sotomayor to the SCOTUS, I'd imagine he'd do much better among Hispanics than he did in 2008, despite winning them two-to-one, maybe now he can get three-to-one or four-to-one?
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opebo
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2010, 03:54:38 PM »

The antics of the racist party and their teabaggers should slightly increase Obama's share among blacks and even a bit more among hispanics.  That said he should still lose because the aforementioned antics are so appealing to the majority (and particularly an electoral college majority) white vote.
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Bo
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2010, 03:58:05 PM »

I think a better question to ask would be what percentage of the HISPANIC vote will Obama win in 2012? After the Arizona law and nominating Sotomayor to the SCOTUS, I'd imagine he'd do much better among Hispanics than he did in 2008, despite winning them two-to-one, maybe now he can get three-to-one or four-to-one?

I already asked about the Latino % that Obama will get in 2012.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=115277.0

I could see Obama getting 75% of the Latino vote, but probably no more than that (unless he's running against a really crazy opponent). Even 75% against a decent Republican is probably a little generous to Obama. Latinos were already alienated by the GOP in 2008, so I see little potential for Obama to improve his % among Latino voters.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2010, 08:52:47 AM »

I think a better question to ask would be what percentage of the HISPANIC vote will Obama win in 2012? After the Arizona law and nominating Sotomayor to the SCOTUS, I'd imagine he'd do much better among Hispanics than he did in 2008, despite winning them two-to-one, maybe now he can get three-to-one or four-to-one?

I already asked about the Latino % that Obama will get in 2012.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=115277.0

I could see Obama getting 75% of the Latino vote, but probably no more than that (unless he's running against a really crazy opponent). Even 75% against a decent Republican is probably a little generous to Obama. Latinos were already alienated by the GOP in 2008, so I see little potential for Obama to improve his % among Latino voters.

Despite the current Arizona craziness? Huh

What if Obama passes immigration reform? Huh
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2010, 11:59:21 AM »

I think a better question to ask would be what percentage of the HISPANIC vote will Obama win in 2012? After the Arizona law and nominating Sotomayor to the SCOTUS, I'd imagine he'd do much better among Hispanics than he did in 2008, despite winning them two-to-one, maybe now he can get three-to-one or four-to-one?

I already asked about the Latino % that Obama will get in 2012.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=115277.0

I could see Obama getting 75% of the Latino vote, but probably no more than that (unless he's running against a really crazy opponent). Even 75% against a decent Republican is probably a little generous to Obama. Latinos were already alienated by the GOP in 2008, so I see little potential for Obama to improve his % among Latino voters.

Despite the current Arizona craziness? Huh

What if Obama passes immigration reform? Huh

There is nothign new with the Arizona craziness. Many GOP members talked about being tougher on illegals and deporting them since at least 2006. Thus, many Latino voters already hated the GOP. Also, most Latino voters who wanted amnesty for illegals already voted for Obama in 2008, so it's hard to see how Obama could improve his % among Latino voters much more. And those illegals (who will get amnesty) aren't going to get their citizenship by 2012, so they will be unable to vote for Obama out of gratitude.
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