Who would Win the Republican Primaries in this Scenario?

[Yelnoc]

Assuming that the candidates are Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Gary Johnson (with the endorsement of Ron Paul), John Thune, Rick Santorum, Mitch Daniels, and Haley Barbour, how would the 2012 primary season turn out?  I am especially interested in who you think would win the early primaries; Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida.

[tmthforu94]

Hm, John Thune would score an early victory in Iowa. However, Romney would counter that with a large New Hampshire win, a win over Pawlenty in Michigan, and a win over Johnson in Nevada. Shortly after, Mitch Daniels and Rick Santorum would both drop out, citing lack of momentum and funds. John Thune would barely edge out Barbour in South Carolina, and both Johnson and Barbour would drop out. Pawlenty would throw everything into Maine, but both Maine and Florida would go to Romney by moderate margins. Going into Super Tuesday, it would be Romney vs. Thune for the nomination. Romney and Thune would split the South, while Thune performed well in the Mountain West. After Super Tuesday, Romney was seen as the clear frontrunner. When Romney wins Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. all with over 60%, Thune drops out, and Romney is the nominee.

Map:
Romney - Green
Thune - Blue

[Yelnoc]

Hm, John Thune would score an early victory in Iowa. However, Romney would counter that with a large New Hampshire win, a win over Pawlenty in Michigan, and a win over Johnson in Nevada. Shortly after, Mitch Daniels and Rick Santorum would both drop out, citing lack of momentum and funds. John Thune would barely edge out Barbour in South Carolina, and both Johnson and Barbour would drop out. Pawlenty would throw everything into Maine, but both Maine and Florida would go to Romney by moderate margins. Going into Super Tuesday, it would be Romney vs. Thune for the nomination. Romney and Thune would split the South, while Thune performed well in the Mountain West. After Super Tuesday, Romney was seen as the clear frontrunner. When Romney wins Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. all with over 60%, Thune drops out, and Romney is the nominee.

Map:
Romney - Green
Thune - Blue

Do you think it would be plausible to have Mitch Daniels pull out a surprise win in Florida over Romney?  If so, how would that affect Super Tuesday?

[tmthforu94]

Hm, John Thune would score an early victory in Iowa. However, Romney would counter that with a large New Hampshire win, a win over Pawlenty in Michigan, and a win over Johnson in Nevada. Shortly after, Mitch Daniels and Rick Santorum would both drop out, citing lack of momentum and funds. John Thune would barely edge out Barbour in South Carolina, and both Johnson and Barbour would drop out. Pawlenty would throw everything into Maine, but both Maine and Florida would go to Romney by moderate margins. Going into Super Tuesday, it would be Romney vs. Thune for the nomination. Romney and Thune would split the South, while Thune performed well in the Mountain West. After Super Tuesday, Romney was seen as the clear frontrunner. When Romney wins Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. all with over 60%, Thune drops out, and Romney is the nominee.

Map:
Romney - Green
Thune - Blue

Do you think it would be plausible to have Mitch Daniels pull out a surprise win in Florida over Romney?  If so, how would that affect Super Tuesday?

I don't see why Daniels would even focus there. He would most likely put most of his funds/time into Michigan and Iowa, states where Romney would automatically have a large lead over him in, as would Thune and Pawlenty.

[Tuck!]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

[tmthforu94]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

[Tuck!]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

[tmthforu94]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

Because South Dakota is a late primary, and Thune would already have dropped out by then.

[Derek]

http://

Man this one is tough. There are enough candidates to split the votes to the point that Haley Barbour could be the nominee. The GOP is only having 3 dates for their primaries in 2012 I thought. That is why I gave each candidate a state or 2. The 3 primary dates are big states, small states, and early states to my recollection.

[Derek]

red- Daniels
pink- Thune
light green- Pawlenty
green- Romney
blue- Barbour
light blue- Johnson
brown- Santorum

Forgot to mention these.

[Psychic Octopus]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

Because South Dakota is a late primary, and Thune would already have dropped out by then.

According to the Ohio plan, North Dakota and South Dakota are set to have it on the same rotation.

[Mr. Morden]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

Because South Dakota is a late primary, and Thune would already have dropped out by then.

According to the Ohio plan, North Dakota and South Dakota are set to have it on the same rotation.

The Ohio Plan is never going to be enacted.  The states will continue to schedule their primaries whenever they feel like it, and the RNC has shown no interest in imposing harsh penalties on states that violate their scheduling rules.  They have no inclination to stage a repeat of the Florida/Michigan fiasco on the Dem. side in 2008, so they'll just let the states do whatever they want.

[Psychic Octopus]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

Because South Dakota is a late primary, and Thune would already have dropped out by then.

According to the Ohio plan, North Dakota and South Dakota are set to have it on the same rotation.

The Ohio Plan is never going to be enacted.  The states will continue to schedule their primaries whenever they feel like it, and the RNC has shown no interest in imposing harsh penalties on states that violate their scheduling rules.  They have no inclination to stage a repeat of the Florida/Michigan fiasco on the Dem. side in 2008, so they'll just let the states do whatever they want.

Ah. Why don't we have a nationwide primary, with every state, territory, and DC voting on the same day?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

Because South Dakota is a late primary, and Thune would already have dropped out by then.

According to the Ohio plan, North Dakota and South Dakota are set to have it on the same rotation.

The Ohio Plan is never going to be enacted.  The states will continue to schedule their primaries whenever they feel like it, and the RNC has shown no interest in imposing harsh penalties on states that violate their scheduling rules.  They have no inclination to stage a repeat of the Florida/Michigan fiasco on the Dem. side in 2008, so they'll just let the states do whatever they want.

Ah. Why don't we have a nationwide primary, with every state, territory, and DC voting on the same day?

Because that would be fair.

[tmthforu94]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

Because South Dakota is a late primary, and Thune would already have dropped out by then.

According to the Ohio plan, North Dakota and South Dakota are set to have it on the same rotation.

The Ohio Plan is never going to be enacted.  The states will continue to schedule their primaries whenever they feel like it, and the RNC has shown no interest in imposing harsh penalties on states that violate their scheduling rules.  They have no inclination to stage a repeat of the Florida/Michigan fiasco on the Dem. side in 2008, so they'll just let the states do whatever they want.

Ah. Why don't we have a nationwide primary, with every state, territory, and DC voting on the same day?

I've been preaching that for years. It's the only fair way, in my opinion, and gives each state an equal oppurtunity. The only problem with it is smaller states won't get as much attention as they do under the current system.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

Because South Dakota is a late primary, and Thune would already have dropped out by then.

According to the Ohio plan, North Dakota and South Dakota are set to have it on the same rotation.

The Ohio Plan is never going to be enacted.  The states will continue to schedule their primaries whenever they feel like it, and the RNC has shown no interest in imposing harsh penalties on states that violate their scheduling rules.  They have no inclination to stage a repeat of the Florida/Michigan fiasco on the Dem. side in 2008, so they'll just let the states do whatever they want.

Ah. Why don't we have a nationwide primary, with every state, territory, and DC voting on the same day?

I've been preaching that for years. It's the only fair way, in my opinion, and gives each state an equal oppurtunity. The only problem with it is smaller states won't get as much attention as they do under the current system.

The current system doesn't necessarily favor smaller states. A lot of less significant states vote toward the end of the primary process and get ignored.

[Tuck!]

A national primary would be an awful idea. The entire intent of the primary scheduling is to weed out the bad candidates from the pack and prepare for the general. The Reverend Wright issue nearly sunk Obama after he had all but wrapped up the nomination, and very well could have destroyed him if brought to light only a month earlier.

[Mr. Morden]

How in the world does Romney lose so many of the few states he actually won in 2008?

Different candidates running. There was no Mountain West candidate in the 2008 election. However, Thune would have a larger appeal to that region than Romney would, in my opinion. The only state I'm not really sure on is Colorado.

Thune is not a Mountain West candidate in anything but location. Romney has much more appeal to the Reagan conservatives. Thune's base would likely overlap with Huckabee's and McCain voters would go to Daniels or Pawlenty. Why does Thune lose his home state?

Because South Dakota is a late primary, and Thune would already have dropped out by then.

According to the Ohio plan, North Dakota and South Dakota are set to have it on the same rotation.

The Ohio Plan is never going to be enacted.  The states will continue to schedule their primaries whenever they feel like it, and the RNC has shown no interest in imposing harsh penalties on states that violate their scheduling rules.  They have no inclination to stage a repeat of the Florida/Michigan fiasco on the Dem. side in 2008, so they'll just let the states do whatever they want.

Ah. Why don't we have a nationwide primary, with every state, territory, and DC voting on the same day?

The national parties could mandate that, but many states (starting with Iowa and New Hampshire) would ignore the rules, and schedule their own primaries for a week or two or four earlier than the mandated national election day, and the national parties would do nothing to stop them.

There's no such problem with the general election.  States don't try to schedule their election day for the last week of October rather than the first week of November because the courts would stop them from doing so.  But the courts can't enforce primary and caucus dates the same way.  That's left up to the national Dem. and Rep. parties.  And the national parties have no stomach for imposing stiff sanctions on states that violate their rules.

[Derek]

Yea wasn't it about 30 or 40 years ago that they moved some states up so other states followed? The result of what is being talked about, a national primary day, is that the primaries wind up starting earlier and earlier. Actually, it was nice seeing Obama and Hillary duke things out that long. It should be like that every election year. As for bad and weak candidates, the primary system as it is allows them to remain in the race longer. I'm not sure who said the system weeds ppl out but that is opposite of what happens. John McCain would've never been the GOP nominee had the entire country voted on the same day and only Republicans voted. Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee would have been the nominee. Winning petty states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina allow candidates who win by flukes to pick up endorsements that they wouldn't normally get. Look at 2004, it pretty much came down to Iowa and then it was follow the leader. The GOP has a great idea as far as early, big, and small states broken down into 3 categories. It allows candidates like Romney to wait out and aim for the majority of delegates later. Why should Iowa and New Hampshire decide who the GOP and Dem candidates are every election cycle? That's stupid.