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Author Topic: Campaign Spot House Race Analysis  (Read 3150 times)
Torie
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« on: May 09, 2010, 02:40:59 pm »
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It is available here. It is not the greatest analysis (and of course from a conservative partisan), but it does contain a lot of information on a seat by seat basis of the seats deemed potentially in play, and thus some might find it of interest, or wish to comment on individual races.

Oh, and here are the 99 seats in play are ranked in trenches of difficulty for the GOP to take.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2010, 03:39:37 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2010, 02:48:52 pm »
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Thnaks, Torie, though I prefer Larry Sabato and CQ Politics.
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2010, 03:02:55 pm »
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There is some really interesting info in there, even though I don't agree with all of the analysis.  One particular tidbit is on Chellie Pingree - not raising much money.  Id like to see a poll on that race. 
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2010, 03:14:10 pm »
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There is some really interesting info in there, even though I don't agree with all of the analysis.  One particular tidbit is on Chellie Pingree - not raising much money.  Id like to see a poll on that race. 

The only guy that could have made it a race, ran for Governor instead.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2010, 04:13:58 pm »
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I think it's actually a pretty good list for what the Republican partisan should be aware of if a wave appears.  A couple of the choices are strange, and I don't agree, but whatever.
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2010, 04:18:23 pm »
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I don't think it's very good at all.

Quote
BLUE/AS HARD AS BEATING THE ST. LOUIS RAMS/CHALLENGERS CAN THINK ABOUT OFFICE DRAPES:

Paul Hodes’s open seat in New Hampshire
, Eric Massa’s open seat in New York, John Tanner’s open seat in Tennessee, Bart Gordon’s open seat in Tennessee, Marion Berry’s open seat in Arkansas, Vic Snyder’s open seat in Arkansas, Charlie Melancon’s open seat in Louisiana, Betsy Markey in Colorado, Suzanne Kosmas in Florida, Phil Hare in Illinois, Frank Kratovil in Maryland, Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire, Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota. (13)

Quote
GREEN/AS HARD AS BEATING THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS/SHOULD BE GOP WINS:

Dennis Moore’s open seat in Kansas, Bobby Bright in Alabama, Dave Obey’s open seat in Wisconsin, Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona, John Salazar in Colorado, Allen Boyd in Florida, Alan Grayson in Florida, Walt Minnick in Idaho, Debbie Halvorson in Illinois, Baron Hill in Indiana, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Travis Childers in Mississippi, Dina Titus in Nevada, Harry Teague in New Mexico, John Boccieri in Ohio, Zach Space in Ohio, Charlie Wilson in Ohio, Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio, Steve Driehaus in Ohio, Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania, Kathy Dahlkemper in Pennsylvania, John Spratt in South Carolina, Glenn Nye in Virginia, Rick Boucher in Virginia, Tom Perriello in Virginia, Allan Mollohan in West Virginia. (26)

Quote
YELLOW/AS HARD AS BEATING THE CAROLINA PANTHERS/PROBABLY CLOSE TO 50/50 RIGHT NOW:

The special election for John Murtha’s district in Pennsylvania, the special election for Neil Abercrombie’s seat in Hawaii, Brad Ellsworth’s open seat in Indiana, Joe Sestak’s open seat in Pennsylvania, Gabby Giffords in Arizona, Harry Mitchell in Arizona, Ron Klein in Florida, John Barrow in Georgia, Jim Marshall in Georgia, Bill Foster in Illinois, Ben Chandler in Kentucky, Mark Schauer in Michigan, Gary Peters in Michigan, Ike Skelton in Missouri, Shelley Berkeley in Nevada, John Adler in New Jersey, Martin Heinrich in New Mexico, Michael Arcuri in New York, John Hall in New York, Bill Owens in New York, Tim Bishop in New York, Larry Kissell in North Carolina, Mike McIntyre in North Carolina, Heath Shuler in North Carolina, Betty Sutton in Ohio, Jason Altmire in Pennsylvania, Chris Carney in Pennsylvania, Patrick Murphy in Pennsylvania, Tim Holden in Pennsylvania, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in South Dakota, Lincoln Davis in Tennessee, Nick Rahall in West Virginia, Steve Kagen in Wisconsin. (33)

This is filled with glaring holes that shows he's not really aware of the differences between these races.  Arcuri is tossup while the GOP should be measuring the drapes in Phil Hare's office?
« Last Edit: May 09, 2010, 04:24:02 pm by Lunar »Logged

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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2010, 04:29:44 pm »
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Yes Lunar,  the dude does seem to be on amphetamines or something, I admit. Hey, maybe the wave is already here and we just missed it. Smiley  But whatever, he lists the candidates and the money, and has some other tidbits, and not all of us are Sam Spade, and need cheat sheets.
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« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2010, 04:33:31 pm »
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I read the first article and not the second, Lunar, FWIW, because I didn't see the link.  Tongue 

Looks like I made the correct choice.  The second article is rather silly.
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2010, 04:34:24 pm »
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Yes Lunar,  the dude does seem to be on amphetamines or something, I admit. Hey, maybe the wave is already here and we just missed it. Smiley  But hey, he lists the candidates and the money, and has some other tidbits, and not all of us are Sam Spade, and need cheat sheets.

It's not just that he skews things in favor of the GOP, it's that he's skewing the wrong things.

Arcuri is probably the best example of that.  I assume he thinks that because Arcuri flipped his vote from yes to no on HCR that he's more likely to be reelected, but in reality, that flip doomed him.

I mean, he generally gets a vague idea of what seats are in danger +/- some, but he's just....off.

There are tons of cheat sheets far better than this one, check out Cook & Rothenberg.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2010, 04:34:38 pm »
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I read the first article and not the second, Lunar, FWIW, because I didn't see the link.  Tongue 

Looks like I made the correct choice.  The second article is rather silly.

It is hard to see something that wasn't there typically. I added it later. Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2010, 04:37:12 pm »
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Yes Lunar,  the dude does seem to be on amphetamines or something, I admit. Hey, maybe the wave is already here and we just missed it. Smiley  But hey, he lists the candidates and the money, and has some other tidbits, and not all of us are Sam Spade, and need cheat sheets.

It's not just that he skews things in favor of the GOP, it's that he's skewing the wrong things.

Arcuri is probably the best example of that.  I assume he thinks that because Arcuri flipped his vote from yes to no on HCR that he's more likely to be reelected, but in reality, that flip doomed him.

I mean, he generally gets a vague idea of what seats are in danger +/- some, but he's just....off.

There are tons of cheat sheets far better than this one, check out Cook & Rothenberg.

But they don't have the detailed chat that CS has of each race (at least not for folks who are looking for freebies rather than pay for more access), which for those who have not made this a project might be helpful.

Lunar is there some poll confirming that Accuri committed Seppuku because of his flip?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2010, 04:38:13 pm »
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I read the first article and not the second, Lunar, FWIW, because I didn't see the link.  Tongue 

Looks like I made the correct choice.  The second article is rather silly.

It is hard to see something that wasn't there typically. I added it later. Tongue

Trying to make me look like an idiot, eh!  Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2010, 04:39:09 pm »
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I read the first article and not the second, Lunar, FWIW, because I didn't see the link.  Tongue 

Looks like I made the correct choice.  The second article is rather silly.

It is hard to see something that wasn't there typically. I added it later. Tongue

Trying to make me look like an idiot, eh!  Tongue

That is not hard; just ask Opebo. Vicious "rightest" too. Smiley
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Lunar
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« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2010, 04:48:32 pm »
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Lunar is there some poll confirming that Accuri committed Seppuku because of his flip?

Well, everyone who flipped away from a yes committed Seppuku imo except for the really random ones (Lynch & Lipinski).  It's logically irrational, as the Senate version was more conservative.

Arcuri is just...I mean, the entire Democratic county apparatus up there is completely deflated.    Everyone is completely baffled by wtf he's doing.

I mean, Arcuri hasn't even made it clear whether or not he's even going to bother to run for reelection.  He's the only representative left in the House, as far as I'm aware, who's still publicly teasing his retirement.  
« Last Edit: May 09, 2010, 04:51:18 pm by Lunar »Logged

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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2010, 04:51:40 pm »
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Lunar is there some poll confirming that Accuri committed Seppuku because of his flip?

Well, everyone who flipped away from a yes committed Seppuku imo except for the really random ones (Lynch & Lipinski).  It's logically irrational, as the Senate version was more conservative.

Arcuri is just...I mean, the entire Democratic county apparatus up there is completely deflated.  

I mean, Arcuri hasn't even made it clear whether or not he's even going to bother to run for reelection.  He's the only representative left in the House, as far as I'm aware, who's publicly teasing his retirement. 

Oh. So did he flip out of principle, or political miscalculation (trying to cut his losses, and instead opened up an artery), or because he didn't understand the bill the first time, or because ... ?
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« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2010, 04:53:35 pm »
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Arcuri & Space, as far as I can tell, both just panicked.


In Upstate New York, Democrats feel betrayed by Rep. Arcuri
By SANDHYA SOMASHEKHAR
WaPo

Woodman's Pub has been the site of many celebrations over the years. On a recent evening, though, four Democrats gathered at the neon-lit bar to take stock of their problems.

Their county committee is splintered and has neither a Web site nor a headquarters. Their enthusiasm is outmatched by that of their Republican counterparts, who were jolted awake by the "tea party" movement. A liberal third party that had been an ally is now a threat.

And Rep. Michael Arcuri, the first Democrat to represent this area in the House since 1983, has become one of Congress's most vulnerable Democrats, unpopular not only with conservatives but with many of the activists who helped him get elected.

"We have a congressman we fought long and hard for, and you know, he didn't come through for us," said Sean Mack, a real estate agent, who sipped a Coke at the bar.

This year, he said, he will vote for Arcuri, but "my plan is not to, like, pound the pavement and go overboard and be a real zealot about it."

In a sun-filled kitchen a couple of blocks away, another group of Democrats tried to muster enthusiasm over slices of sausage-and-pepper pizza. Jo Schaffer, the Democratic committee's secretary, said she is waiting for Arcuri to visit them and personally explain his vote against the health-care bill.

"What has happened is a big disappointment. It's a betrayal -- I can't think of any other word," she said. "We are receptive to what he has to say about it. We want to hear his rationale, and I have no doubt we will come together behind him in the end."

Arcuri is part of a class of Democrats that some Republicans derisively refer to as the "wave babies," swept into office in 2006 at the peak of anger over President George W. Bush and the Iraq war. Republicans believe they can take back some of those seats this fall -- especially in GOP-leaning districts such as Arcuri's, which covers a swath of rural Upstate New York as well as several college towns, including Cortland.

Like Democrats elected recently in similar districts, Arcuri has tried to please both his base and his crossover supporters. Shortly after taking office, he joined the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition. He voted in favor of the stimulus but against a "cap and trade" bill aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Then last month, he reversed course on the health-care bill, voting against it along with 33 of his Democratic colleagues after supporting it for months.

"We certainly appreciate the hard work that activists do, but I represent a largely moderate district and voted the way the district and I thought was best," Arcuri said in an e-mail. On his Web site, he said he was concerned that insurance premiums would rise for families, seniors and small businesses.

The vote deflated his most ardent backers -- "like a razor to a balloon," said Henry Steck, a Democratic activist and professor at the State University of New York at Cortland. "People were willing to roll with the punch [on cap and trade], but health-care reform is the signature issue of our time, of the Obama administration, et cetera. It's taken a lot of the wind out of the sails of his base."

His vote also provoked an immediate backlash from unions and the liberal Working Families Party, which delivered crucial support in Arcuri's narrow 2008 reelection. The party is considering fielding its own candidate this year.

Arcuri's Republican opponent, Richard Hanna, outraised Arcuri during the first three months of the year, collecting about $358,000 compared with Arcuri's $208,000.

Many Democrats say they share the frustrations that motivate Republicans and independents. Unemployment in Cortland County is higher than the national average, worsened by state budget cuts to schools and highway construction. Taxes are a near-universal concern.

Democrats, too, have been disappointed by their party's leadership in Washington. They think Obama's attempts to reach bipartisan agreements on health care and other issues has been naive. And they say Democratic leaders have not articulated their message clearly and forcefully enough to win over independents and quash the vocal tea party movement.

The tea party has a foothold here. Activists came out in force at rallies designed to sway Arcuri against the health-care bill. And a handful of signs that recently sprouted along the highway taunt some of the community's more liberal members. One says: "Double your taxes. Vote Democrat." Another advocates drilling for oil; a third condemns socialism.

At Woodman's, where they used to gather during the 2006 campaign, Mack and the other Democrats reminisced about another sign -- the giant one bearing Arcuri's name that they strapped to the back of a pickup and paraded around town that year.

"There's maybe 1 percent of the population that's willing to do the kinds of things I've done," Mack said. Though he had said he probably would not volunteer again for Arcuri's campaign, on this day he allowed: "It's still early. Let's see what happens."
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2010, 04:54:56 pm »
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Of course, maybe Arcuri has been completely tarnished by what happened in 2008.
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« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2010, 04:57:21 pm »
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Of course, maybe Arcuri has been completely tarnished by what happened in 2008.


mmm?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2010, 05:05:49 pm »
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Of course, maybe Arcuri has been completely tarnished by what happened in 2008.


mmm?

Tarnished is not the best word, scarred is better.  Whatever...
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Torie
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« Reply #19 on: May 09, 2010, 05:06:46 pm »
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Of course, maybe Arcuri has been completely tarnished by what happened in 2008.


mmm?

Tarnished is not the best word, scarred is better.  Whatever...

I don't recall the scaring myself. What happened?
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« Reply #20 on: May 09, 2010, 05:26:03 pm »
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Of course, maybe Arcuri has been completely tarnished by what happened in 2008.


mmm?

Tarnished is not the best word, scarred is better.  Whatever...

I don't recall the scaring myself. What happened?

He came within an inch of having his head handed to him by Hanna in a "Democratic" year.
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« Reply #21 on: May 09, 2010, 09:13:31 pm »
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This list actually had Shelley Berkley listed as vulnerable in the inner city Las Vegas district.  Does this guy realize that the current NV-01 isnt even close to being like the district that she won in 1998 and John Ensign represented for four years in the 1990's?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #22 on: May 09, 2010, 09:30:08 pm »
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This list actually had Shelley Berkley listed as vulnerable in the inner city Las Vegas district.  Does this guy realize that the current NV-01 isnt even close to being like the district that she won in 1998 and John Ensign represented for four years in the 1990's?

That was one of about four on the list that I thought was pretty ridiculous, as mentioned above.
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« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2010, 09:34:01 pm »
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I'm pretty sure Arcuri is dead meat at this point, I'm just waiting to see an independent poll to confirm it.
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« Reply #24 on: May 09, 2010, 09:44:06 pm »
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Phil Hare? LOL.

Arcuri is an idiot, plain and simple. The fact that the guy is considering retirement when he's only been in two terms and isn't that old is quite amusing but frankly we'd probably have a better chance with someone else.
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