Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2010 Discussion Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

I support Ed M now

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Third general endorsements update...

Abbott

Unions:
CLPs: Lichfield, Aldridge-Brownhills
Socialist Societies:
MEPs:

Balls

Unions:
CLPs: Morley & Outwood
Socialist Societies:
MEPs:

Burnham

Unions:
CLPs: New Forest East
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Brian Simpson (NW)

D. Miliband

Unions:
CLPs: Bromsgrove, Glasgow NE, Glasgow Central, Rhondda
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Michael Cashman (WM), Richard Howitt (EE), Claude Moraes (London), Mary Honeyball (London)

E. Miliband

Unions:
CLPs: South Cambridgeshire, Rutherglen & Hamilton West
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Arlene McCarthy (NW)

---

White flighters for Abbott, wtf? Well, on first glance anyway. But I suspect that most members in Litchfield live in Burntwood and most members in A-B live in Brownhills and the two towns are next door to each other. These presumably aren't big CLP's anyway. Still quite amusing, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fourth general endorsements update...

Abbott

Unions:
CLPs: Lichfield, Aldridge-Brownhills, NW Leicestershire
Socialist Societies:
MEPs:

Balls

Unions:
CLPs: Morley & Outwood
Socialist Societies:
MEPs:

Burnham

Unions:
CLPs: New Forest East
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Brian Simpson (NW)

D. Miliband

Unions: USDAW
CLPs: Bromsgrove, Glasgow NE, Glasgow Central, Rhondda, East Renfrewshire, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Tonbridge & Malling, Manchester Central
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Michael Cashman (WM), Richard Howitt (EE), Claude Moraes (London), Mary Honeyball (London)

E. Miliband

Unions:
CLPs: South Cambridgeshire, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Glasgow North, East Ham
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Arlene McCarthy (NW)

---

And we have the first Union endorsement; the right-wing shopworkers union USDAW has declared for D. Miliband. USDAW is the fourth largest Union in the country with a membership of around 350,000 (I've seen various figures and can't be bothered checking which is right. 350k is a rough average). USDAW backed Blears in the Deputy election a few years ago and she actually managed to win most of their votes, despite her otherwise terrible showing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh yes. Liverpool and England defender Jamie Carragher is backing Burnham.

[Phony Moderate]

Oh yes. Liverpool and England defender Jamie Carragher is backing Burnham.

A bit of a suprise, considering that football managers tend to express their political views more than players. Bill Shankly, Brian Clough and Alex Ferguson spring to mind.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fifth general endorsements update...

Abbott

Unions:
CLPs: Lichfield, Aldridge-Brownhills, NW Leicestershire, SW Surrey
Socialist Societies:
MEPs:

Balls

Unions:
CLPs: Morley & Outwood
Socialist Societies:
MEPs:

Burnham

Unions:
CLPs: New Forest East, Ashton-under-Lyne, Carshalton & Wallington
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Brian Simpson (NW)

D. Miliband

Unions: USDAW
CLPs: Bromsgrove, Glasgow NE, Glasgow Central, Rhondda, East Renfrewshire, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Tonbridge & Malling, Manchester Central, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East, East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow, Meon Valley, Wolverhampton SE
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Michael Cashman (WM), Richard Howitt (EE), Claude Moraes (London), Mary Honeyball (London)

E. Miliband

Unions:
CLPs: South Cambridgeshire, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Glasgow North, East Ham, Barnsley Central, St Albans, Birmingham Selly Oak, Edinburgh East, Dagenham & Rainham
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Arlene McCarthy (NW), Stephen Hughes (NE), Linda McAvan (Yorks & H)

---

These, btw, are all official endorsements. I might look around for any unofficial lists later.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/06/30/nec-elections-shenanigans-in-the-grassroots-alliance/

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm watching Burnham on This Week right now. Everytime I hear him talk, I like him less and less. It was that was on the Newsnight debate too. He seems inexperienced and he seems like he's running just for the sake of it.

This "I'm Northern me, I 'ate Westminster" rhetoric is really grating and pretty patronising.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the Grauniad...

Andy Burnham's Labour leadership bid based on a return to socialist values

'Aspirational socialism' will be manifesto keynote, with 10% inheritance tax identified as flagship policy

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jul/01/andy-burnham-labour-leadership-socialist-values

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sixth general endorsements update...

Abbott

Unions:
CLPs: Lichfield, Aldridge-Brownhills, NW Leicestershire, SW Surrey
Socialist Societies:
MEPs:

Balls

Unions:
CLPs: Morley & Outwood
Socialist Societies:
MEPs:

Burnham

Unions:
CLPs: New Forest East, Ashton-under-Lyne, Carshalton & Wallington, St Helens South & Whiston, Inverclyde
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Brian Simpson (NW)

D. Miliband

Unions: USDAW
CLPs: Bromsgrove, Glasgow NE, Glasgow Central, Rhondda, East Renfrewshire, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Tonbridge & Malling, Manchester Central, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East, East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow, Meon Valley, Wolverhampton SE, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Motherwell & Wishaw, Beaconsfield, Knowsley
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Michael Cashman (WM), Richard Howitt (EE), Claude Moraes (London), Mary Honeyball (London)

E. Miliband

Unions:
CLPs: South Cambridgeshire, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Glasgow North, East Ham, Barnsley Central, St Albans, Birmingham Selly Oak, Edinburgh East, Dagenham & Rainham, Isle of Wight, Midlothian, West Ham, Hyndburn, Mansfield
Socialist Societies:
MEPs: Arlene McCarthy (NW), Stephen Hughes (NE), Linda McAvan (Yorks & H)

---

These, btw, are all official endorsements. I might look around for any unofficial lists later.

David Miliband's strength in Scottish CLP's (bastions of the Right, as a general rule) is worth noting.

[k-onmmunist]

From the Grauniad...

Andy Burnham's Labour leadership bid based on a return to socialist values

'Aspirational socialism' will be manifesto keynote, with 10% inheritance tax identified as flagship policy

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jul/01/andy-burnham-labour-leadership-socialist-values

That isn't socialist. If it had nationalization in, it would be socialist, but they seem to have a major fear of that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ken Livingstone is backing Balls, apparently.

[War on Want]

I'm pulling for Balls(lol) and Abbott. Can someone outline the differences between the two Milibands?

[Insula Dei]

Isn't Burnham supposed to be the most rightwing of the lot?

[You kip if you want to...]

Isn't Burnham supposed to be the most rightwing of the lot?

He is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't Burnham supposed to be the most rightwing of the lot?

Left and Right are confused and relative terms in the Labour Party (foreign policy was once the main dividing line (ie; when Nye Bevan came out for Nukes he essentially defected from Left to Right, something that we're supposed to forget ever happened), and those debates are long dead. The other was pragmatism versus purity, and those debates are mostly dead as well) so it depends who you ask...

But a lot of early coverage painted him in that general direction, though most signs from his campaign point (or so I would argue) in the other direction. He's mostly running as a regional candidate and as a populist one, tacking to the right on certain issues and well to the left on others (in at least one hustings early one he appeared to agree with McDonnell more than any other candidate). The fact that David Blunkett is backing him is quite telling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can someone outline the differences between the two Milibands?

David is running as a traditional Social Democratic intellectual in the model of Crosland. Ed is running as a soft left candidate in the model of Kinnock. More or less.

[minionofmidas]

And where does Balls fit into the picture.

[You kip if you want to...]

And where does Balls fit into the picture.

He seems to be trying to go for the social conservative angle from what I saw on the Newsnight debate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And where does Balls fit into the picture.

Seems to be trying to run from where he reckons the centre of the Party is these days, more or less. The core of his MP nominations came from the left of the traditional right, but he's picked up a reasonable amount of more out-and-out left support as well, outside Parliament anyway. Presumably he's hoping to be the candidate who supporters of the other candidates end up directing their prefs. towards.

[minionofmidas]

And where does Balls fit into the picture.

Seems to be trying to run from where he reckons the centre of the Party is these days, more or less. The core of his MP nominations came from the left of the traditional right, but he's picked up a reasonable amount of more out-and-out left support as well, outside Parliament anyway. Presumably he's hoping to be the candidate who supporters of the other candidates end up directing their prefs. towards.

Which ought to work, unless he's eliminated first.

Which in turn sounds likely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And where does Balls fit into the picture.

Seems to be trying to run from where he reckons the centre of the Party is these days, more or less. The core of his MP nominations came from the left of the traditional right, but he's picked up a reasonable amount of more out-and-out left support as well, outside Parliament anyway. Presumably he's hoping to be the candidate who supporters of the other candidates end up directing their prefs. towards.

Which ought to work, unless he's eliminated first.

Which in turn sounds likely.

It certainly wouldn't be surprising if he ended up last or Leader

Union endorsements might be critical; Unite is the big one and probably the hardest to call (not that any are easy).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just for fun, the majorities of each candidate...

Andy Burnham: 31.7% (Leigh)
Diane Abbott: 31.1% (Hackney North & Stoke Newington)
David Miliband: 30.4% (South Shields)
Ed Miliband: 26.3% (Doncaster North)
Ed Balls: 2.2% (Morley & Outwood)

Comparing to previous contested elections... challenges in italics because they're a little different...

1994: Tony Blair 31.6% (Sedgefield), John Prescott 39.1% (Hull East), Margaret Beckett 13.8% (Derby South)

1988: Neil Kinnock 56.6% (Islwyn), Tony Benn 15.9% (Chesterfield)

1983: Neil Kinnock 36.9% (Islwyn), Roy Hattersley 32.0 (Birmingham Sparkbrook), Eric Heffer 27.5% (Liverpool Walton), Peter Shore 20.6 (Bethnal Green & Stepney)

1980: Michael Foot 55.6% (Ebbw Vale), Denis Healey 22.2% (Leeds East), John Silkin 21.7% (Deptford), Peter Shore 41.6 (Stepney & Poplar)

1976: Jim Callaghan 26.5% (Cardiff South East), Michael Foot 63.0 (Ebbw Vale), Roy Jenkins 29.7% (Birmingham Stechford), Tony Benn 17.7% (Bristol South East), Denis Healey 27.7% (Leeds East), Tony Crosland 15.2% (Grimsby)

1963: Harold Wilson 9.8% (Huyton), George Brown 7.4% (Belper), Jim Callaghan 1.6% (Cardiff South East)

1961: Hugh Gaitskell 27.5% (Leeds South), Anthony Greenwood 5.9% (Rossendale)

1960: Hugh Gaitskell 27.5% (Leeds South), Harold Wilson 9.8% (Huyton)

1955: Hugh Gaitskell 30.3% (Leeds South), Aneurin Bevan 58.5% (Ebbw Vale), Herbert Morrison 14.8% (Lewisham South)

[Хahar 🤔]

Why was Callaghan's majority so small in 1959? Was there some independent candidate?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why was Callaghan's majority so small in 1959? Was there some independent candidate?

No;

L.J. Callaghan, Lab, 26,915, 50.8
M.H.A. Roberts, Con, 26,047, 49.2

There was a strong (for the time) swing away from Labour in urban working class areas in 1959 (except in Scotland), especially in the ports (Tony Crosland's majority in Grimsby in the same election was 0.2%; in 1955 a different Labour candidate had a majority of 7.6%). This was blamed variously on Labour's opposition to Suez, on increased affluence in society and on the unpopularity of nationalisation; there was a small steelworks in Cardiff SE and this fact (and Callaghan's narrow majority) was often used as evidence for the latter point. But the main reason why it was so close was different to the reasons for the swing; Cardiff SE included Penarth. Labour lost Swansea West (which then included the Mumbles) in the same election, fwiw. By the time Callaghan ran for Leader in 1976, Penarth had been removed.