2010 and DeMint

[Lunar]

I've previously stated that I think DeMint is the true dark horse in 2012.  He's quietly anointing himself the leader of the conservative grassroots and RINO-hunters.  Some people disagreed, and that's cool, but here's a new question.

We've seen Stutzman sputter, but Rubio, Tarkanian, Lee, Paul, Toomey and Buck are on the rise.  Obviously DeVore isn't going to be a U.S. Senator, but if Rubio, Tarkanian, Paul, Buck, Lee, Toomey, and maybe one of those wingnut candidates challenging Ayotte all make it to the U.S. Senate...what does that do to DeMint's prospects?

And there are lots of governors races and congressional where Tea Party players are playing a prominent role.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

DeMint might be able to get himself into the Vice Presidency, but unless the GOP takes even more of a lurch to a right than I think it will, I can't see him doing well in either Iowa or New Hampshire in 2012, while if he does well here in South Carolina, it will be credited to him being a favorite son.  Possibly he could do well in Nevada or Wyoming, but unless he wins one of those, he just won't have the momentum to win Florida and by then the best he could hope for is to play the 2012 version of Huckabee to whoever the 2012 McCain is.

More likely is that if McConnell doesn't seek a sixth term in 2014 then DeMint makes a play for M**ority Leader.

[Lunar]

DeMint might be able to get himself into the Vice Presidency, but unless the GOP takes even more of a lurch to a right than I think it will, I can't see him doing well in either Iowa or New Hampshire in 2012, while if he does well here in South Carolina, it will be credited to him being a favorite son.  Possibly he could do well in Nevada or Wyoming, but unless he wins one of those, he just won't have the momentum to win Florida and by then the best he could hope for is to play the 2012 version of Huckabee to whoever the 2012 McCain is.

More likely is that if McConnell doesn't seek a sixth term in 2014 then DeMint makes a play for M**ority Leader.

Even with DeMint's alliances, would he have enough support for majority leader in such an inside-baseball match?  He's a RINO hunter, who clearly supported the ouster of even someone as conservative as Bennett.  Majority Leaders, inherently, are people who can be entrusted with coalition building and are people who always back incumbents.  I can't imagine someone as divisive as DeMint being Majority Leader.  I mean, he inserted "build a fence on the border" language into a Grassley-Durbin amendment to ban secret holds of nominees earlier today!!

DeMint seems to be doing something else.  Maybe he just wants his own coalition in the Senate.

[tmthforu94]

Marlin actually overperformed from where he was orginally expected to place. It was supposed to be a Hostetller-Coats race. If you had given Stutzman another month or two to campaign, he would have won.

Demint could be very pleasing to the base; I've learned to like him simply because of his Marlin endorsement. I could definately see myself voting for him in the primaries, if Mitt isn't running.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

DeMint might not actually make it to M**nority Leader himself, but if he can purify the party enough he might have a shot if no one has the guts to oppose him.  Or he might choose to pull a DeLay and be the official No. 2 as the M**ority Whip.

[Lunar]

Well, don't forget that 90% of the planning for a run for president is about the primaries.  I think there's a general perception among campaigns that if you can be your party's nominee, you're guaranteed a baseline shot at winning the general election no matter what (through national events, opponent's stumbles etc).   The optics of this silly white guy from South Carolina challenging our first Black President are great for Democrats, but not really that damaging in the primaries.  

Once you get nominated, you figure things out from there.

And if there's no Southern candidate, and Palin and Huckabee stay out, it's really not that hard to imagine a path to victory for DeMint.


I could see DeMint being competitive in Iowa (I mean, Huckabee won there!), Nevada (but losing to Romney) and of course South Carolina before Super Tuesday.  He'd have almost all the online blogs behind him if Huck & Palin stayed out.

If 2010 kicks out more establishment-backed candidates, that'll just encourage DeMint even more.

[Derek]

I don't think he'll run for president.

[Lunar]

I don't think he'll run for president.

Rochambeau, is that you?

[Derek]

no it's me

[Akno21]

I see DeMint emerging more as a kingmaker than a serious nominee. Republican primaries, over the long haul, rarely anoint a dark horse from the right -- the path DeMint would follow isn't one that has led to success.

Long-term, I think he'll try to establish himself as something akin to Ted Kennedy, except for the Senate Republicans. He wants to be a major force, THE Senate conservative, so to speak, carrying significant national influence but not necessarily the leadership baggage of being majority leader.

Of course, if someone were to ask him to serve as their vice presidential nominee, I can't imagine him saying no, and that, depending on who the nominee is (Romney/DeMint seems particularly plausible), might be a distinct possibility.

[Derek]

I see DeMint emerging more as a kingmaker than a serious nominee. Republican primaries, over the long haul, rarely anoint a dark horse from the right -- the path DeMint would follow isn't one that has led to success.

Long-term, I think he'll try to establish himself as something akin to Ted Kennedy, except for the Senate Republicans. He wants to be a major force, THE Senate conservative, so to speak, carrying significant national influence but not necessarily the leadership baggage of being majority leader.

Of course, if someone were to ask him to serve as their vice presidential nominee, I can't imagine him saying no, and that, depending on who the nominee is (Romney/DeMint seems particularly plausible), might be a distinct possibility.

He's a good dude. Good point about Ted Kennedy.