Let the great boundary rejig commence

[minionofmidas]

Hold it. There's an error somewhere here.

Found and corrected for. I had one figure too low by 5000 people... and of course the correct figure was out of target range.

[YL]

Better, I think. Unless you now go spoil my fun and teach me that Ramsey is historical Isle of Ely too and a big reason why you suggested it. That would be not cool if that were the case. (Yes, yes, I know Wisbech is Isle of Ely.)

Ramsey is Huntingdonshire, both historic county and modern district.  I tend to think of "Isle of Ely" as meaning the low hill (island in the fens) which Ely itself is on, which is much smaller than the old administrative county with the same name and doesn't stretch as far as Wisbech, but does include Haddenham.  (People from Wisbech probably get altitude sickness if they visit Haddenham.)  The "Isle of Ely" seat should possibly include Stretham too; it looks like SE Cambs can just about afford losing that.

Wilts/Glos: I'd suggest looking at crossing the Wilts border with Glos CC in the Cirencester/Cricklade area and also crossing the Glos CC/S Glos border; assuming the numbers work without any nasty town splits it should be less ugly than Wilts/S Glos.  The northern parts of the existing Stroud and The Cotswolds would then be merged.

Any comments on Northern Ireland, by the way?

[minionofmidas]

Wilts/Glos: I'd suggest looking at crossing the Wilts border with Glos CC in the Cirencester/Cricklade area and also crossing the Glos CC/S Glos border; assuming the numbers work without any nasty town splits it should be less ugly than Wilts/S Glos.  The northern parts of the existing Stroud and The Cotswolds would then be merged.

Probably better, yeah. I'll see how that works out. Sometime. I probably won't have much time the next few days.

First I finish England, then I look at her enfranchised dependencies.

[YL]

OK, here's an attempt at Gloucestershire and Wiltshire.  I'm not sure it's much better to be honest.

1. Kingswood (77,826) gains Staple Hill, Boyd Valley.

2. Sadly Broke and Sodding Chipbury (79,528) compared with current F & BS, loses Almondsbury, Patchway, Pilning & Severn Beach, Staple Hill; gains Westerleigh, Dodington, Chipping Sodbury, the Yate wards.

3. Thornbury and Dursley (79,115) rest of South Gloucestershire; Stroud district except the Stroud area itself.

4. Stroud and the Cotswolds (77,290) from Stroud district: Amberley & Woodchester, Bisley, Cainscross, Central, Chalford, Farmhill & Paganhill, Minchinhampton, Nailsworth, Randwick et al, Painswick, Rodborough, Slade, Stonehouse, Thrupp, Trinity, Uplands, Upton St. Leonards, Valley; from Cotswold district: Beacon-Stow, Blockley, Bourton OTW, Campden Vale, Chedworth, Churn Valley, Ermin, Fosseridge, Moreton in Marsh, Rissingtons, Sandywell, Three Rivers.

5. Forest of Dean, 6. Cheltenham, 7. Gloucester, 8. Tewkesbury as in previous proposal

9. Cirencester and North Wiltshire (77,595) Rest of Cotswold district; from Wiltshire Brinkworth, Cricklade and Latton, Lyneham, Malmesbury, Minety, Purton, Sherston, the Wootton Bassett wards.

10. Chippenham (76,827) gains Box and Colerne, By Brook, Kington; loses Hilperton, Winsley & Westwood (part).

11. Devizes (75,580) gains Calne; loses Bulford et al (part), Durrington & Larkhill.

12. Salisbury (75,495) gains the wards that Devizes lost.

13. SW Wiltshire (78,547) gains the wards that Chippenham lost.

Split wards otherwise assigned to the constituency which the largest part was with.

[minionofmidas]

Why list Bradley Stoke rather than Filton? Just for the sake of (good) punnery?

[minionofmidas]

I see your proposal and I raise you:

Thornbury and Dursley (75,801) as in your proposal except minus the Stanleys ward (because it looks to me like it ought to be in Stroud, and now it fits in too)

Stroud and the Cotswolds (79,198) from Stroud district: Amberley & Woodchester, Bisley, Cainscross, Central, Chalford, Farmhill & Paganhill, Minchinhampton, Nailsworth, Randwick et al, Painswick, Rodborough, Slade, the Stanleys, Stonehouse, Thrupp, Trinity, Uplands, Upton St. Leonards, Valley; from Cotswold district: Chedworth, Churn Valley, Ermin; from Tewkesbury district: Badgeworth, Brockworth, Churchdown Brookfield, Churchdown Saint John's, Hucclecote, Shurdington.

Tewkesbury (77,812) Remainder of current constituency; Sandywell, Bourton on the Water, Rissingtons and points north in Cotswold district.

Anything else as you described (didn't have a second look at Wiltshire or South Gloucestershire actually).

[YL]

I see your proposal and I raise you:

Thornbury and Dursley (75,801) as in your proposal except minus the Stanleys ward (because it looks to me like it ought to be in Stroud, and now it fits in too)

Stroud and the Cotswolds (79,198) from Stroud district: Amberley & Woodchester, Bisley, Cainscross, Central, Chalford, Farmhill & Paganhill, Minchinhampton, Nailsworth, Randwick et al, Painswick, Rodborough, Slade, the Stanleys, Stonehouse, Thrupp, Trinity, Uplands, Upton St. Leonards, Valley; from Cotswold district: Chedworth, Churn Valley, Ermin; from Tewkesbury district: Badgeworth, Brockworth, Churchdown Brookfield, Churchdown Saint John's, Hucclecote, Shurdington.

Tewkesbury (77,812) Remainder of current constituency; Sandywell, Bourton on the Water, Rissingtons and points north in Cotswold district.

Anything else as you described (didn't have a second look at Wiltshire or South Gloucestershire actually).

Yes, that looks better, except I'm not sure about the Stroud name now.

[minionofmidas]

Who, I could have sworn I had changed it back to a simple "Stroud". That's what I meant to type, anyways.

[minionofmidas]

Cornwall and Devon.

Cornwall is another one of those new unitaries with an interim warding arrangement. Putting ward names on this applet would have made it useful, so they didn't. Thank God there's also this series of maps.

And identifying places via that series of maps led me to using the "community network areas" (ie area committees) as building blocks in mapdrawing (I ended up splitting two). Note that a few wards are included in two cna's (strictly speaking they're divided, but in practice I suppose the councillor just sits on both committees) and I've treated this with where most of them was, which was always easy to determine. I drew the map from two sides, and somehow the Cornish seats always got big while the Devon seats mostly got small. Which meant they happened to join up quite well (after I'd eliminated two errors. Finding them took a moment). Seats in Eastern Devon are larger than in the western part, and could remain unchanged.

Saint Ives 77,923
Penzance, Helston, and Hayle & Saint Ives cna's, and Isles of Scilly. Basically the current constituency plus Hayle, though there's also a couple parishes added on the northern outskirts of Lizard.
Falmouth & Camborne 78,757
Camborne & Redruth, Falmouth cna's.
Truro & Newquay 76,978
Truro, Saint Agnes & Perranporth, and Newquay cna's, St Enoder, St Dennis, and St Stephen wards of China Clay cna.
Saint Austell & Bodmin 77,899
St Austell, St Blazey etc, Bodmin, and Wadebridge cna's, Penwithick, Bugle, and Roche wards of China Clay cna.
Cornwall South East 77,572
Liskeard, Saltash & Torpoint, and Callington cna's, Stokeclimsland and Altarnun wards of Launceston cna, ie extending to Launceston town limits.
Torridge & Cornwall North 73,867
Bude and Camelford cna's, Launceston N, C, and S wards, Cornwall (43% of constituency); Torridge district except wards to the east of Torridge river - except Bideford East which is included.
Plymouth Devonport 76,709
Current Plymouth Moor View constituency and Devonport ward.
Plymouth Sutton 70,010+x
Current Sutton & Devonport constituency, minus Devonport, plus Plymstock Radford and part of Plymstock Dunstone
Totnes 73,594
gains Charterlands, Erme Valley
Devon South West 71,236+x
Loses Charterlands, Erme Valley, Plymstock Radford, part of Plymstock Dunstone; gains all of West Devon district currently in Torridge & West Devon
Newton Abbot 74,437
gains Chudleigh
Devon Central 74,728
loses Chudleigh, gains four wards in Torridge
Torbay 76,253, Exeter 75,936, Devon East 72,754, Tiverton & Honiton 76,717, Devon North 74,408 unchanged.

[minionofmidas]

Dorset & Hampshire, the jewel in the crown.

This is my first draft, a second very different one (based on a Portsmouth South & Ryde) is actually already begun and will be posted later.

Dorset North 74,031
Dorset West 76,877
Dorset South 73,168
unchanged, though it might make sense to transfer Chickerell (4418) from W to S.
Dorset Mid & Poole North 72,081 (barely legal)
gains Creekmoor
Poole 77,957
gains Alderney and Branksome East lost to a Bournemouth seat at the last review, loses Creekmoor
Bournemouth South 79,014
compared to Bournemouth East, gains Central, Westbourne & West Cliff, Talbot & Branksome Woods, Winton East
Bournemouth North 75,025
remainder of city, portion of East Dorset currently in Christchurch except St Leonards & St Ives E and W wards.
Christchurch & Ringwood 73,094
Christchurch district, St Leonards & St Ives (61% of constituency), Bashley and points north in current New Forest West constituency
New Forest East 72,955
unchanged
Wight West & Lymington 75,464
Remainder of New Forest West (53%); Parkhurst, Newport wards, Godshill & Wroxall, Chale etc and points west on Wight.
Wight East 74,404
Remainder

This allowed to remove one seat across the remainder of Hampshire - the new one:
Southampton Itchen 74,720+x
Gains part of Swaythling ward (9140)
Southampton Test 71,712+x
Gains part of Swaythling ward
Romsey 74,858
Loses Swaythling, gains portion of Eastleigh currently in Winchester constituency
Eastleigh 77,320
unchanged
Hampshire North West 76,470
Rewarding in Basingstoke & whatevsky has left 138 voters in a Hampshire NE based ward. I've transferred them out.
Basingstoke 75,108
unchanged
Farnborough 77,039
Adding the right kind of pop. to Aldershot proved difficult, so I've split the area n-s instead.
This is Rushmoor excluding St Mark's and points south, Blackwater & Hawley, Hartley Wintney, Hook and points north and for numerical balance also Long Sutton in Hart, and the area north of Basingstoke (but see NW)
Aldershot (or Aldershot, Fleet & Alton to clearly indicate the strongly redrawn character) 79,383
Remainder of Rushmoor, remainder of Hart, remaining one ward south of Basingstoke, and Holybourne & Froyle and the Alton town wards of East Hampshire
Hampshire East 77,264
Remainder of district, Upper Meon Valley and Droxford etc wards of Winchester
Gosport 75,841
Drops the bit of Fareham it currently includes (Stubbington) but picks up a slightly larger different one instead - Portchester. Across Portsmouth Harbour, I know, but Cams Hall Estate is bizarrely not included in any ward and the little residential area north of it is in a Portchester ward, so there's a tentative land connection.
Fareham 79,114
Remainder of district, Boarhunt & Southwick and Denmead wards of Winchester
Winchester 78,715
Remainder of district
Portsmouth South 79,344
gains Nelson ward (because Baffins wouldn't quite fit.)
Portsmouth North 75,248
loses Nelson; gains Purbrook and Stakes in Havant.
Havant 77,822
remainder of district

[minionofmidas]

Dorset & Hampshire, changes in cursive.

Dorset North 74,031
Dorset West 76,877
Dorset South 73,168
unchanged, though it might make sense to transfer Chickerell (4418) from W to S.
Dorset Mid & Poole North 72,081 (barely legal)
gains Creekmoor
Poole 77,957
gains Alderney and Branksome East lost to a Bournemouth seat at the last review, loses Creekmoor
Bournemouth South 79,014
compared to Bournemouth East, gains Central, Westbourne & West Cliff, Talbot & Branksome Woods, Winton East
Bournemouth North 75,025
remainder of city, portion of East Dorset currently in Christchurch except St Leonards & St Ives E and W wards.
Christchurch & Ringwood 75,268
Christchurch district, St Leonards & St Ives (61% of constituency), Bashley and points north in current New Forest West constituency and the Bramshaw etc ward from New Forest East
Lymington and Hythe 78,547
Remainder of New Forest West, Lyndhurst, Brockenhurst & Forest SE, Butts Ash & Dibden Purlieu and points south
Southampton Itchen 74,720+x
Gains part of Swaythling ward (9140)
Southampton Test 71,712+x
Gains part of Swaythling ward
Romsey & Totton 79,471
Remainder of New Forest, Bassett ward in Southampton, southern part of Test Valley as far as Blackwater and Ampfield & Braishfield
Eastleigh 77,320
unchanged
Hampshire North West 79,638
Gains Harewood and Over Wallop. Rewarding in Basingstoke & whatevsky has left 138 voters in a Hampshire NE based ward. I've transferred them out.
Basingstoke 75,108
unchanged
Farnborough 77,039
Adding the right kind of pop. to Aldershot proved difficult, so I've split the area n-s instead.
This is Rushmoor excluding St Mark's and points south, Blackwater & Hawley, Hartley Wintney, Hook and points north and for numerical balance also Long Sutton in Hart, and the area north of Basingstoke (but see NW)
Aldershot (or Aldershot, Fleet & Alton to clearly indicate the strongly redrawn character) 79,383
Remainder of Rushmoor, remainder of Hart, remaining one ward south of Basingstoke, and Holybourne & Froyle and the Alton town wards of East Hampshire
Hampshire East 79,054
Remainder of district, The Alresfords ward of Winchester
Gosport 75,841
Drops the bit of Fareham it currently includes (Stubbington) but picks up a slightly larger different one instead - Portchester. Across Portsmouth Harbour, I know, but Cams Hall Estate is bizarrely not included in any ward and the little residential area north of it is in a Portchester ward, so there's a tentative land connection.
Fareham 78,247
Remainder of district, Whiteley and Wickham wards of Winchester
Winchester 76,578
Current constituency, Broughton & Stockbridge, Kings Somborne & Michelmersh, Dun Valley wards of Test Valley
Meon Valley & Cosham 75,594
Current Meon Valley constituency excluding East Hampshire portion, Whiteley, Wickham; Stakes ward in Havant, Cosham and Paulsgrove wards in Portsmouth
Havant 72,758
Loses Stakes, gains Drayton & Farlington in Portsmouth
Portsmouth North 72,225
Loses the three mainland wards, gains Fratton, Charles Dickens, Saint Thomas
Portsmouth South & Ryde 75,160
Remainder of Portsmouth (50.4% of constituency), Wootton Bridge, Havenstreet etc, Brading etc, Sandown South wards and points north east
Isle of Wight (or Wight West) 72,968
Remainder

[You kip if you want to...]

Portsmouth South & Ryde 75,160
Remainder of Portsmouth (50.4% of constituency), Wootton Bridge, Havenstreet etc, Brading etc, Sandown South wards and points north east
Isle of Wight (or Wight West) 72,968
Remainder[/i]

Why are Orkney-Shetland and Na H-Eileanan An Iar allowed to stay as one constituency each, but not the Isle of Wight?

[doktorb]

Portsmouth South & Ryde 75,160
Remainder of Portsmouth (50.4% of constituency), Wootton Bridge, Havenstreet etc, Brading etc, Sandown South wards and points north east
Isle of Wight (or Wight West) 72,968
Remainder[/i]

Why are Orkney-Shetland and Na H-Eileanan An Iar allowed to stay as one constituency each, but not the Isle of Wight?

If you know the Isles, it makes perfect sense. Wight is not some isolated wind-swept netherworld. Shetland may as be independent, it is very difficult to travel from one to other islands within Shetland never mind to Orkney or beyond.

Ditto the Western Isles - the sheer size and nature of them make their special status perfectly legit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People on the Isle of Wight have, however, consistently expressed a desire not to be paired with the mainland.

[doktorb]

People on the Isle of Wight have, however, consistently expressed a desire not to be paired with the mainland.

Indeed they have, but there's no credibility in having equal size across the country....except for isloated Scottish communities and one very not-isolated southern island.

[minionofmidas]

To be fair, it's not really less isolated than the mainland Highlands, and although it's not received much coverage they'll be protected too. Probably because they feared Charlie Kennedy would defect otherwise.

The right thing to do would of course be to grant Wight two seats, elected by STV. I really don't see any other arrangement that doesn't screw *some* basic democratic principle.

[minionofmidas]

The two earlier proposals for Wales assumed 29 seats. It appears there will be 30.

Of the two proposals this one received a modicum of support from the experts-that-be, so I will use it as a base. However, there's no precise ward lists and it appears to be based on 2005 electorates, so will have to be retraced and in some cases amended.
(The above-average electorates appear to be concentrated in the southeast, so that's where the additional seat will be.)

[minionofmidas]

Surprises, surprises. Maybe the southwest outside of Llanelli simply has had a fair bit of growth in the past couple of years, but the proposal's "Teifi" seat (crossing into Carmarthenshire as well as Pembrokeshire) appears unnecessary.

Penfro 74,651
County excluding Scleddau, Dinas Cross, Maenclochog and points northeast.
Ceredigion & Preseli 73,876
Ceredigion, remainder of Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen 74,776
Carmarthenshire excluding current Llanelli constituency. Which will still be paired with Gower areas, but less of it now that Burry Port is still in.

Incidentally, because Wales was rather narrowly awarded that 30th seat and there's no nation-specific quota, the average seat in Wales will be only 74,676 residents but the available range will stil be 72,069 to 79,658.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not sure if cutting up the Gower (which seems to be preordained from that post) is a good idea.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure if cutting up the Gower (which seems to be preordained from that post) is a good idea.

Got a better one? Which 18,000 electors would you most like to be seen drawn into Dyfed? I'm open to suggestions, you know. Going by ancient history it ought to be Brecon, btw.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not sure if cutting up the Gower (which seems to be preordained from that post) is a good idea.

Got a better one? Which 18,000 electors would you most like to be seen drawn into Dyfed? I'm open to suggestions, you know.

Brecon is the obvious area, I think. Ystradgynlais has ties to the upper Amman Valley, while the rural east of the county has ties to Llandovery. Transport links between Brecon itself and Llandovery are fairly good (better than between Brecon and much of the rest of Powys), if you have to go that far.

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm... coming down from the north though, the Syniadau proposals work out fairly (seemingly) reasonable there too. Though I didn't do the illdescribed transfer of a little bit of southwest Brecon into Neath, and did do the Machynlleth transfer proposed elsewhere (it was that or Bethesda). If I remove Brecon from the mix up north, I have to split up Ceredigion too. Or else expand that Powys South seat into Monmouthshire. (And yes, up to and including Brecon but no further is exactly as far as one would have to go.)

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm... coming down from the north though, the Syniadau proposals work out fairly (seemingly) reasonable there too.

Except for the part where there's no direct road links between Bangor and the Conwy Valley, of course, but who cares. Still a community of interest comparative Welshness when compared to Llandudno, Colwyn Bay et al.

[minionofmidas]

Gwynedd 76,049
Excluding Bangor, Bethesda, and that one rural ward east of them; includes Machynlleth, Glyntwymyn and Llanbrynmair wards of Powys.
Menai 76,501
Mona, Bangor/Bethesda, three westernmost coastal wards of Conwy (as far as Penmaenmawr, though that's not what the ward is called), Conwy Valley wards as far downstream as Caerhun and Eglwysbach. Syniadau name - I guess "Ynys Môn, Bangor & Nant Conwy" would be substituted.
Conwy 76,028
Remainder of council
Mold & Shotton (they called it "Flintshire" but that's very misleading. Might alternatively remain "Alyn & Deeside".) 76,872
Current constituency and from Delyn New Brighton, Mold, Gwernaffield and points south.
Rhuddlan 77,553
Remainder of Delyn; Dyserth, Rhuddlan, Bodelwyddan and points north in Vale of Clwyd
Wrexham 76,415
Minera, Coedpoeth, Esclusham, Marchwiel and points northeast
Denbigh & Powys North 74,728 (he called it North Powys and of course historically he's broadly correct - historical Denbighshire, except the northwestern end, is in Powys. I'm half inclined to name it Powys Fadog... though of course it extends into Powys Wenwynwyn. )
Remainder of Wrexham council , remainder of Denbighshire council from St Asaph on south,
Banwy, Llanfair Caereinion, Guilsfield, Welshpool, Forden and points north in Powys. 28% of constituency in Powys.
Powys South 76,333
Remainder (excluding also three wards round Machynlleth.)

There are 16,657 electors in Brecon town, Talybont-on-Usk, Maescar/Llywel and points southwest which might be paired with Carmarthen (though I'd still have to work out where the Carmarthen & Denbigh / Llanelli constituency boundary would go.)

[minionofmidas]

Carmarthenshire with bits of Denbigh Brecon works quite nicely.

Carmarthen & Denbigh Brecon 74,114
Carmarthen portion of W & S Pembrokeshire, E & Dinefwr excluding ten southerly wards (Gorslas, Llandybie and Quarter Bach wards as extremities probably describe the removed area well), four westernmost wards of current Llanelli (Burry Port and points nw), and that previously described removed Denbigh Breconshire area except the four wards in the very southwest corner of Powys (Ystradgynlais et al).
Llanelli & Vale of Amman 73,625
Remainder of Llanelli, ten Vale of Amman wards, four Ystradgynlais wards.

Now all I need to do is kink out Powys South... cause 18-seat Gwent and Glamorgan is 75k-odd per seat, just 400 above the Welsh average, without ceding random territory to Powys. (Yes, I know the southern Powys line is not the historical line of Denbigh Breconshire. The only reason to complain about that particular change is that it made Labour uncompetitive in Denbigh Brecon & Radnor constituency.) Meanwhile the seven northern seats I've drawn average 76.3k, which might drop to 74.2k for eight seats if Powys South' problems are wholly rectified in that direction.

EDIT: LOL!