Let the great boundary rejig commence

[Harry Hayfield]

Top 5 Green % (based on October poll averages)
1) Brighton, Pavillion and Hove: Green GAIN 58% vote
2) Norwich South: Green GAIN 40% vote
3) Brighton and Hove North: Lab HOLD 26% Green vote
4) Cambridge: Lib Dem HOLD 24% Green vote
5) Deptford and Greenwich: Lab HOLD 16% Green vote

[Peter the Lefty]

Thank you.  I have a feeling that given the rate at which Green support is growing, we may be looking at the possibility of 3 Green MP's in the next election, though I know that may be a bit unrealistic.  Any constituencies where *vomits* the UKIP could possibly win? 

[You kip if you want to...]

Thank you.  I have a feeling that given the rate at which Green support is growing, we may be looking at the possibility of 3 Green MP's in the next election, though I know that may be a bit unrealistic.  Any constituencies where *vomits* the UKIP could possibly win? 

Not really. I doubt that they'll win anywhere unless:

1. An MP becomes seriously shamed, like in Tatton in 1997.
2. They hit around 10% nationally.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brighton Whatever and... er...? Just for the record, and all that, the results (just showing Con/Lab/Lib/Grn) in selected constituencies at the last election:

Brighton Pavilion: Green 31.3, Labour 28.9, Con 23.7, LDem 13.8
Norwich South: LDem 29.4, Labour 28.7, Con 22.9, Green 14.9
Cambridge: LDem 39.1, Con 25.6, Labour 24.3, Green 7.6
Deptford: Labour 53.7, LDem 23.4, Con 13.5, Green 6.7
Brighton Kemptown: Con 38, Labour 34.9, LDem 18, Green 5.4
Hove & Portslade: Con 36.7, Labour 33, LDem 22.6, Green 5.2
Hackney North & Stoke Newington: Labour 54.9, LDem 23.8, Con 14.5, Green 4.6

Of course the Green vote fell in most places because there were pressures on possible Green voters that weren't there in 2005... but those pressures are hardly going to go away in 2015. And, once again 'of course', the Greens have done much better in local government elections in many of these places. But that support does not seem to translate very well upwards and, anyway, is often kind of dependent on low turnout.

[Harry Hayfield]

Thank you.  I have a feeling that given the rate at which Green support is growing, we may be looking at the possibility of 3 Green MP's in the next election, though I know that may be a bit unrealistic.  Any constituencies where *vomits* the UKIP could possibly win? 

Not really. I doubt that they'll win anywhere unless:

1. An MP becomes seriously shamed, like in Tatton in 1997.
2. They hit around 10% nationally.

According to UK-Elect, UKIP do not start winning seats until 24% national vote share. The only time they get anywhere near that level is during the European Elections (in a PR election)

[You kip if you want to...]

Thank you.  I have a feeling that given the rate at which Green support is growing, we may be looking at the possibility of 3 Green MP's in the next election, though I know that may be a bit unrealistic.  Any constituencies where *vomits* the UKIP could possibly win? 

Not really. I doubt that they'll win anywhere unless:

1. An MP becomes seriously shamed, like in Tatton in 1997.
2. They hit around 10% nationally.

According to UK-Elect, UKIP do not start winning seats until 24% national vote share. The only time they get anywhere near that level is during the European Elections (in a PR election)

Yeah, when their vote rises at the same proportion in every seat. If UKIP started to gain ground nationally, they'd channel it at 1 or 2 seats, like the Greens did.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now it is the turn of Wales

Initial reaction:

Newport West & Sirhowy Valley and Glyndwr and North Powys are some of the worst things drawn during this sick joke of a process. Also, look at Cardiff. And Swansea. And the general ignorance of the existence of, you know, mountains in The Valleys.

And for a very local gripe: they've literally drawn a random line between the communities that sprung up around Dinorwic. Which is like dousing the idea of 'community of interest' with petrol and setting it alight. Not the worst thing (not even close) to come out of this process, even for Wales, but I'm still very much not happy.

[You kip if you want to...]

"Heads of the Valley" - What idiot named that?

The new Ynes Mon? No.

Newport looks atrocious.

[doktorb]

"North Wales Coast" ffs.

I'm going to look forward to suggesting changes to these.

[Harry Hayfield]

You will be able to Liam, however I can't. Yesterday evening an e-mail came from Kirsty saying that only the national Welsh Liberal Democrats can make suggestions, but that is not the biggest gripe I have at the moment. That gripe is with the Boundary Commission themselves not have NOT (and this as of 0900 GMT on January 11th) put up the full report on their website. Compare this to England (where the website crashed due to people downloading it) and Scotland (which was able to be downloaded by 0030 BST).

[YL]

Newport West & Sirhowy Valley

That looks horrendous.

[Harry Hayfield]

The official report has only just been launched on the Boundary Commission's site "because the person who maintains the site has only just come into work" (and that's from a Boundary Commission telephone operator). They have also published the schedule for public hearings

The locations, venues and dates of the 5 public hearings to be held across Wales are:

15-16 February 2012: Sinclair Suite, The Liberty Stadium, Swansea
22-23 February 2012: Millennium Lounge, The Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
29 February - 1 March 2012: Catrin Finch Centre, Glyndwr University, Wrexham
7-8 March 2012: Menai Room, Celtic Royal Hotel, Caernarfon
20-21 March 2012: Main Hall, The Pavilion, Llandrindod Wells

[minionofmidas]

There's really no excuse for drawing something awful except in Cardiff and Swansea, where ward sizes provide one, and in either Brecon or Powys Wenwynwyn where something's got to give.

[minionofmidas]

All in all, anything outside of Glamorgan and Monmouthshire looks okay to me, actually. Even Machynlleth makes sense. Though I wonder why they moved that one Carmarthenshire ward into Ceredigion & Preseli. And clearly "South & West Pembrokeshire" should be just named "Pembroke"?

EDIT: That's Newcastle Emlyn. It does have links to the north, and moving it improves population equality, but it's still an unnecessary split of local government boundaries. Keeping it in Carmarthen does not make that too large; removing it from Ceredigion makes that too small but it could easily have taken Llanrhian and optionally Saint David's as well from Pembroke instead without that in turn becoming too small.

[minionofmidas]

There are absolutely no grounds on which a decision not to draw the self-evident wholly urban Newport seat can be rationalized, of course.

[minionofmidas]

The electorates are from one year before, but this is what Gwent should look like:

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 77,253
Current constituency and the Bargoed area further down the Rhymney Valley, which is currently in Caerphilly and Islwyn constituencies (two wards in this area succesfully fought being transferred to Islwyn at the last review. What will they make of being put in with Merthyr? Though other wards were transferred, never had their position in doubt, or were in Islwyn from the start.) ie Aberbargoed, Bargoed, Gilfach, Saint Cattwg, Pengam, Cefn Fforest and Blackwood wards.
Blaenau Gwent 77,580
Similarly expanded down the valley of the Ebbw (and admittedly the edges of the Rhymney Valley as well) to take in Argoed, Penmaen, Crumlin, Newbridge, Abercarn and Pontllanfraith.
Caerphilly 77,935
Remainder of Caerphilly (most) and Islwyn (five wards); Newport wards of Rogerstone and Graig.
Torfaen 75,051
Borough; Caerleon ward of Newport
Monmouth 74,603
Borough; Langstone and Llanwern wards of Newport
Newport 77,320
Remainder

[minionofmidas]

Most of that is just a ward or two off from what they drew; all the weirdness arises from the unfortunate decision to carve up Cynon Valley instead of the obvious candidate, Pontypridd.

[doktorb]

You will be able to Liam, however I can't. Yesterday evening an e-mail came from Kirsty saying that only the national Welsh Liberal Democrats can make suggestions, but that is not the biggest gripe I have at the moment. That gripe is with the Boundary Commission themselves not have NOT (and this as of 0900 GMT on January 11th) put up the full report on their website. Compare this to England (where the website crashed due to people downloading it) and Scotland (which was able to be downloaded by 0030 BST).

Well that is what happened in England, remember, when I had my tizz

Ultimately I was able to speak on behalf of the NW LibDems with many of my suggestions and ideas in place for Lancashire.

I would just suggest you put forward your ideas to the Welsh party and make your case.

I will submit my proposals on a purely personal basis, and will make it clear that I'm doing so on a purely personal basis.

[YL]

Though I wonder why they moved that one Carmarthenshire ward into Ceredigion & Preseli. And clearly "South & West Pembrokeshire" should be just named "Pembroke"?

EDIT: That's Newcastle Emlyn. It does have links to the north, and moving it improves population equality, but it's still an unnecessary split of local government boundaries. Keeping it in Carmarthen does not make that too large; removing it from Ceredigion makes that too small but it could easily have taken Llanrhian and optionally Saint David's as well from Pembroke instead without that in turn becoming too small.

It's odd, because elsewhere they're often very keen on saying that they're protecting local government boundaries, and as you say it's unnecessary.

Aberavon & Ogmore: would it make more sense to include the coastal parts of Bridgend district with Port Talbot, or do the numbers not work out very well?

Glyndwr & North Powys: this does indeed look dreadful, but I fear that it's virtually impossible to avoid something dreadful with Powys.  And has it been partly named after a district which no longer exists, or is there some other reason for the name?

[YL]

And for a very local gripe: they've literally drawn a random line between the communities that sprung up around Dinorwic. Which is like dousing the idea of 'community of interest' with petrol and setting it alight. Not the worst thing (not even close) to come out of this process, even for Wales, but I'm still very much not happy.

The text in their report says

You must be logged in to read this quote.

... but Menai ac Ynys Môn certainly looks to me as if it contains divisions south of Bangor.

Is there a better solution within the electorate rules?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And has it been partly named after a district which no longer exists, or is there some other reason for the name?

Owain Glyndŵr is associated with Corwen. But, basically, yes, for the old local government district.

[doktorb]

Is "South Powys" better named/essentially the same as "Brecon and Radnor(shire)"?
Edit: Ah, it's "Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery(shire)". Hmm. Bit wordy.

[afleitch]

Looking at them for the first time they are actually not that bad. Wales was always going to face this sort of cull anyway. I think they missed a trick by not crossing the Glamorgan/Powys boundary but that would have a knock on effect in the north.

You'll never grow to love it; I feel more attached to the continuity of the Scottish Parliament seats and I think when it comes to the Welsh Assembly you will feel the same.

[Harry Hayfield]

Is "South Powys" better named/essentially the same as "Brecon and Radnor(shire)"?
Edit: Ah, it's "Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery(shire)". Hmm. Bit wordy.

In that case, what about Carmarthenshire West and Pembrokeshire South (1997 - 2015) or Middlesborough South and Cleveland East (1997 - 2015), they are both equally wordy.

[minionofmidas]

And for a very local gripe: they've literally drawn a random line between the communities that sprung up around Dinorwic. Which is like dousing the idea of 'community of interest' with petrol and setting it alight. Not the worst thing (not even close) to come out of this process, even for Wales, but I'm still very much not happy.

The text in their report says

You must be logged in to read this quote.

... but Menai ac Ynys Môn certainly looks to me as if it contains divisions south of Bangor.

Is there a better solution within the electorate rules?

Llanfairfechan can go into NWC (which should not be called that, and neither should "Dee Estuary" be called that, as Prestatyn and Rhyl are on the North Wales Coast and not the Dee Estuary as far as I'm concerned. Both seats should very much be drawn, however.) The two remaining rural Conwy Valley wards can go into Gwynedd. Ynys Mon & Bangor (as I would have named it) then needs to be brought up to population, and Llanberis seems like the obvious choice.