Let the great boundary rejig commence

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would you consider that an improvement worth recommending?

It would make things slightly better* as it wouldn't split that area up, yeah. And slightly better is slightly better, you know?

*Also from a *cough* partisan point of view as it would increase our chances of winning the monster, but let's pretend I didn't write that.

[minionofmidas]

I am disappointed in all of you.

Nobody noticed the obvious issue with my proposal! That "Llantrisant" thing, as proposed here, is barely-too-effing-small! (As is, as I noticed fairly late, the most obvious alternative solution for the Rhondda, ie adding Tonyrefail and the parts of RCT currently in Ogmore, staying out of Llantrisant.)

But the Commission's staff did.

"Thank you for your email and the considerable amount of work that has obviously gone into creating you proposal for Wales. Unfortunately, the Commission will not be able to consider your full proposal as your proposed 'Llantrisant - 72,727 electors' constituency falls below the statutory electoral quota of 72,810.

The closing date for the representation period is 4 April so if you wish to re-submit your representation with a proposal within the statutory range we would be happy to receive it.

Your alternative proposals for the Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff, Caerphilly and Pontypridd do meet the statutory range and will be considered in full by the Commission. For your information, indicative figures suggest that Whitchurch has approximately 11,000 electors and Tongwynlais has 1,500 electors. Precise figures can be obtained from Cardiff City Council on request."

[joevsimp]

And I sort of like the Glyndwr name. If Britain is to start having constituencies named after people like Quebec or Australia, Owain Glyndwr and Shane Crosagh O'Mullan are just the kind of people I want constituencies named after.

I think they're the only ones so far, but I'd definitely approve of Epping Forest being renamed Turpin:D

[minionofmidas]

Did they actually hint at the best fix for my constituency on purpose in that email? Looking the map over, Tongwynlais is exactly what needs to go into Llantrisant.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And I sort of like the Glyndwr name. If Britain is to start having constituencies named after people like Quebec or Australia, Owain Glyndwr and Shane Crosagh O'Mullan are just the kind of people I want constituencies named after.

I think they're the only ones so far, but I'd definitely approve of Epping Forest being renamed Turpin:D

I maintain that any constituency including Wem should be called Hazlitt.

[joevsimp]

are the constituencies in Australia named after local notables as a rule?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

are the constituencies in Australia named after local notables as a rule?

Not always that local, but, kind of.

[YL]

The Northern Ireland Commission is the first to have published the submissions it received:
http://www.boundarycommission.org.uk/index/current-review/submissions.htm

The DUP and the SDLP both rant quite a bit, the latter mostly about the process (including things which are surely not the Commission's fault but the Government's) and the former more about the boundaries, although oddly they don't seem to suggest any very substantial changes.  The SDLP don't even have a proper counterproposal: they have a map showing a possible four-seat Belfast (no great surprise that they would prefer that idea) but as far as I can tell they don't fit it in to an NI-wide scheme.

[minionofmidas]

While the Alliance shows it is the party of non-Republicans without leave of their wits:

"While having significant reservations about the rules which the Commission is obliged to
follow under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, Alliance is
broadly content with the Commission's Provisional Proposals. In particular, the decision to
reduce Belfast to three seats and the three western counties to four seats are appropriate
ways of reducing the total from 18 to 16 seats." Exactly.

[minionofmidas]

Several proposals to split South and Mid Antrim on an east-west basis instead, which may indeed be sensible. And yeah, N Antrim needs to get Coleraine into the name. Definitely.

Also, this is a submission? Srsly?

[MaxQue]

I think those commissions are writing to various organisations, to inform them of the process.

Obviously, they don't hav much to say on that subject, but they were polite and answered.

And Boundary Commission published all things they received.

[ObserverIE]

While the Alliance shows it is the party of non-Republicans without leave of their wits:

"While having significant reservations about the rules which the Commission is obliged to
follow under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, Alliance is
broadly content with the Commission's Provisional Proposals. In particular, the decision to
reduce Belfast to three seats and the three western counties to four seats are appropriate
ways of reducing the total from 18 to 16 seats." Exactly.

A cynic might point out that:

a) adding large chunks of currently SDLP-voting but potentially tactical Alliance supporters from the south Belfast suburbs to East Belfast suits Alliance perfectly, and
b) that other than the more salubrious parts of Coleraine/Portrush/Portstewart, Alliance has negligible support in the said three western counties.

[minionofmidas]

Well, true enough and I have thought of the first point myself. It's part of the reason why DUP are angry. That and Glenshane being hardly a safe unionist seat. (Wait, Alliance has any support west of the Lough?)

[ObserverIE]

Well, true enough and I have thought of the first point myself. It's part of the reason why DUP are angry. That and Glenshane being hardly a safe unionist seat. (Wait, Alliance has any support west of the Lough?)

Strictly speaking, Portstewart, Portrush and most of Coleraine town are east of the river.

As for Glenshane, once you take out Coleraine and its surrounds, it's nigh impossible to draw a Unionist-majority seat in Co. Derry. Similarly, the only way to make FST winnable for Unionism would be to extend it into the north Armagh countryside (though not as far north as the lough shore). And a seat stretching from Belleek to Tandragee would fatally stretch credulity.

[minionofmidas]

Well duh. But tell that to the DUP.

[minionofmidas]

Or the TUV for that matter.

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[minionofmidas]

Oooh, and the mayor of Ballymoney:

"There is an elephant in the room which I am not allowed to mention, about the makeup of Glenshane and the North Antrim constituency, but everything else was said." North Antrim being a red herring here, of course.

[MaxQue]

Oooh, and the mayor of Ballymoney:

"There is an elephant in the room which I am not allowed to mention, about the makeup of Glenshane and the North Antrim constituency, but everything else was said." North Antrim being a red herring here, of course.

That elephnt being the unionist/nationalist balance?

[minionofmidas]

Oooh, and the mayor of Ballymoney:

"There is an elephant in the room which I am not allowed to mention, about the makeup of Glenshane and the North Antrim constituency, but everything else was said." North Antrim being a red herring here, of course.

That elephnt being the unionist/nationalist balance?

Quite. The elephant being the effective net elimination of two unionist seats (counting the old Belfast S and the new Belfast SE as neutral/undependable but the old Belfast E as dependably unionist despite the shock 2010 result).

[minionofmidas]

Of course, if you keep Antrim N and Derry E much as they are (the latter still has to expand south and take some Catholics, of course), you need to draw some bizarre Fermanagh & Mid Armagh monster, as well as strange things in Belfast (either some seat that covers areas northwest and areas southwest of the city, or, probably, five seats expanding radially from the city.)

[ObserverIE]

Oooh, and the mayor of Ballymoney:

"There is an elephant in the room which I am not allowed to mention, about the makeup of Glenshane and the North Antrim constituency, but everything else was said." North Antrim being a red herring here, of course.

That elephnt being the unionist/nationalist balance?

Quite. The elephant being the effective net elimination of two unionist seats (counting the old Belfast S and the new Belfast SE as neutral/undependable but the old Belfast E as dependably unionist despite the shock 2010 result).

It's clear from Assembly election results that South Belfast is really no longer a unionist seat and would have become even greener over time because of demographics. North Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone are trending away as well but not to the same degree.

You're seeing one nationalist seat (Mid Ulster) and one gradually transitioning seat (South Belfast) disappear, with the ripples flipping East Derry/Londonderry. Each side being one down is fair enough in my opinion (though obviously not in Jim Allister's).

[Harry Hayfield]

On Thursday, I'll be going to the Liberty Stadium in Swansea (as a representative of my aunt and grandparents in law) to query about the carving up of Montgomeryshire into Gwynedd, Glyndwr and Powys South. Is anyone else coming along (as it would be nice to put faces to forum names)?

[doktorb]

Any reports, Harry?

[freefair]

On Thursday, I'll be going to the Liberty Stadium in Swansea (as a representative of my aunt and grandparents in law) to query about the carving up of Montgomeryshire into Gwynedd, Glyndwr and Powys South. Is anyone else coming along (as it would be nice to put faces to forum names)?

I know it a shame to abolish such a historic constituency (though only at Westminster level), but I do feel that with regards to Gwynedd the W.B.C have made the right decision as Machynlleth does seem more like Meirionydd in both geography and community, as does everywhere west of Mallwyd in the humble opinion, once past the Brigands Inn you feel like you are in Snowdonia.

[Harry Hayfield]

On Thursday, I'll be going to the Liberty Stadium in Swansea (as a representative of my aunt and grandparents in law) to query about the carving up of Montgomeryshire into Gwynedd, Glyndwr and Powys South. Is anyone else coming along (as it would be nice to put faces to forum names)?

I know it a shame to abolish such a historic constituency (though only at Westminster level), but I do feel that with regards to Gwynedd the W.B.C have made the right decision as Machynlleth does seem more like Meirionydd in both geography and community, as does everywhere west of Mallwyd in the humble opinion, once past the Brigands Inn you feel like you are in Snowdonia.

It's funny that you should mention Machynlleth being placed in Gwynedd because that was the mainstay of my evidence (as my aunt is worried that this might be the thin end of a wedge towards local government reorganisation, and as she has a sister that suffers from depression, the last thing they need is change). As for the actual meeting, the busy day was the day before (and I was the last speaker of the whole thing!), I got asked a couple of questions from Welsh Conservative and Labour about community affliations (saying that I was working on pure electoral maths like the Commission) but later found out that the Conservatives wanted to alter Ceredigion by taking out Maenclochog ward (which should be given to South and West Pembrokeshire) and replacing it with Llangelar ward from Caerfyrddin