Let the great boundary rejig commence

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Warrington 1.98 so the two Warrington seats I will probably leave as they are.

Sadly not: Warrington North is too small and Warrington South right at the top of the range.

Annoyingly, most of Warrington's wards are in the 7000-8000 electorate range, with a few smaller wards, so transferring one of those larger wards from one seat to another will cause one seat to go out of tolerance.  The only smaller ward which can be transferred from South to North is Latchford East, so that's what I'll do.

Warrington North 76714.  The current seat plus Latchford East.
Warrington South 73872.  The current seat minus Latchford East.

[doktorb]

I am a bit stuck with East Lancs. This what I've done, any advice would be great. I am particularly in need of some guidance on the geography of the areas at the north of Bury and Rochdale, to see how I can match up Darwen or Rossendale.

I am sticking with Pendle and Burnley North, it in the quota, and as I refuse to split Ribble Valley, it's all I can do.

Burnley and Accrington seemed to be a good idea, but now I am stuck. Blackburn is of an awkward size and shape, especially the huge rectangle of a ward at the west. I have tried "Blackburn and Rishton" (well, it was either that or "Blackburn and Clayton-le-Moors") but that forces me to go down "Rest of Blackburn and Darwen" and "Rossendale plus Rochdale or Bury" and I don't know how further go down that route.

[afleitch]

Got the figures for the North of Scotland

Highland/Moray 3.18 or 3- Just a tad over the quota, but geography makes other groupings different. If accepted this would give a Moray and Nairn, and a 'north' and 'south' Highland seat...but it all depends on the geography given the clause in the bill.

Aberdeen City 2.06 or 2 -  Extended Aberdeen North and Aberdeen South

Aberdeenshire/Angus/Dundee - 4.95 or 5 - Expanded Dundee West and Dundee East, rest of Angus with part of Mearns, two Aberdeenshire seats

Perth and Kinross/Fife - 5.23 or 5 seats - Quite tight here. Also breaking the Fife border has not been done yet.

Stirling/Clackmannan/Falkirk - 2.96 or 3 seats - Something like Clackmannan and East Stirling (taking in Stirling), Falkirk and a huge left over seat. Need to look at this one.

[minionofmidas]

I will look at this today. What's the figures for the borough of Blackburn with Darwen? If I can combine Rossendale with the  bits of Hyndburn left over, and create two seats out of BwD, I won't have to move into Gtr Manchester at all....

No. In and of itself Blackburn is not of an awkward size or shape at all - it's just in an awkward part of the map. If you combine Rossendale with the bits of Hyndburn, you're pretty likely to be also drawing a very pretty Blackburn constituency and then the thing that Andrew screamed in bold caps about recently because no way does he want his town associated with Darreners.

Or you could try some Blackburn S & Darwen / Blackburn N & Northern Parts of Chorley (but not all of them; your South Ribble is too small) / Westhoughton Blast from the Past.

Or you rework areas wholly elsewhere extensively.

[minionofmidas]

Basically it's a shame to split Blackburn, but if it is understood that Blackburn is really the only place Darwen could possibly be linked to, that will force it. Which is probably how Rossendale & Darwen came about - well that, and at the time it made the map work elsewhere (Hyndburn, Burnley, Pendle) work too. And that second argument is now gone, so fire away. Split Blackburn for all I care.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There were a lot of deeply horrible constituencies drawn in 1983; most of the worst went in the 1995 review.

[doktorb]

Think you might be right about my South Ribble - I have it as 76,429.....but I fear that may be worked out with JUST Bamber Bridge North, not the whole of Brig.

DAMN DAMN BLAST BUGGER!

[minionofmidas]

Got the figures for the North of Scotland

Highland/Moray 3.18 or 3- Just a tad over the quota, but geography makes other groupings different. If accepted this would give a Moray and Nairn, and a 'north' and 'south' Highland seat...but it all depends on the geography given the clause in the bill.

Highland is 30,600 square km... or about 30,000 without Nairn. Too large to be two seats.
The clause is so precise that I think it was probably formulated with a specific setup in mind that alone (with minor alterations) satisfies it, possibly the current one.

[minionofmidas]

I am sorry, the ~half of Molyneux Ward (far larger than the Maghull part) that is mismatched with Sefton Central and geographically "belongs" in Bootle is not Netherton, which is indeed in Bootle already, but its eastern neighbor of Aintree.

[minionofmidas]

Got the figures for the North of Scotland

Highland/Moray 3.18 or 3- Just a tad over the quota, but geography makes other groupings different. If accepted this would give a Moray and Nairn, and a 'north' and 'south' Highland seat...but it all depends on the geography given the clause in the bill.

Highland is 30,600 square km... or about 30,000 without Nairn. Too large to be two seats.
The clause is so precise that I think it was probably formulated with a specific setup in mind that alone (with minor alterations) satisfies it, possibly the current one.

"No constituencies with an area of more than 13000 km^2.  Constituencies with an area of more than 12000 km^2 are allowed to be more than 5% below quota."

Doesn't give a figure on how far below quota a seat between 12,000 and 13,000 can go (or maybe the law does but the blurb Doktorb quoted doesn't). I can't find totals by area for constituencies... but judging by the look of the Highland map that sounds about right for the two non-Inverness seats.

[doktorb]

Plans for tomorrow then  :

Scrap West Lancs, Wigan/Makerfield/Leigh, Chorley, South Ribble

Re work the Lancs bits, consider Blackburn+Chorley as way out of current log-jam.

Praise Allah we have until December to fathom all this out.

[doktorb]

Right, here goes:

South Ribble (76,190)[/b ]
The borough of South Ribble, minus Brig, Walton-le-Dale, Salmlesbury, Coupe Green
Plus Lostock, and Euxton wards from Chorley
Possible alternative name - South Ribble and West Chorley (which is UGLY as sin)

West Lancashire (76,704)
The borough of West Lancashire minus Parbold, Wrightington, Newburgh

Chorley and Wrightington (75,692)
Borough of Chorley minus Lostock and Euxton
Plus Parbold, Wrightington, Newburgh.
Possible different name - Chorley and South West Lancashire?

[minionofmidas]

Finishing the East Midlands

Derbyshire 10 (-1)

Leicestershire 10 (no change, but expanded Leicester seats)

Northamptonshire + Milton Keynes 9 (-1, odd grouping but both need a partner and anyways the area between Northampton and MK is London Commuterland really)


This is approximately based on 97-10, when the county also had 10 seats, though some constituencies had to be shifted somewhat. Not in Derby, though.
Chesterfield 72,077
I ended up leaving this unchanged because I couldn't decide which one of the two city wards currently not in should be included (the whole borough is too large), and the way I worked it out elsewhere it happened to fit this way.
North East Derybshire 77,550
gains the wards of Sutton and Holmewood & Heath, just south of Chesterfield, from Bolsover.
Bolsover 78,028
The other seat (besides Chesterfield) to currently have a legal population, this one was nonetheless redrawn. Loses Sutton and Holmewood & Heath; gains Alfreton and Somercotes from Amber Valley
High Peak 78,021
Gains Bradwell, Hathersage & Eyam and Tideswell - ie minimum change compared to the 97-10 map.
Derbyshire Dales 78,585
Loses these but gains back all of Belper. Throw in Duffield and this too is minimum change compared to 97-10... but that makes problems elsewhere (Amber Valley and/or Erewash have to migrate too far southwards or into the city) so instead I added the North West and Hatton wards from South Derbyshire.
Amber Valley 77,060
Loses Alfreton and Somercotes, gains Duffield, Little Eaton & Bradsall, and (I know, I know) the Derby ward of Oakwood
Erewash 79,226
Gains Ockbrook & Borrowash, West Hallam & Dale Abbey
Derby North West 72,246
Compared to North, gains Allestree, loses Chaddesden
Derby South East 79,634
Compared to South, gains Chaddesden, Spondon, loses Chellaston which used to be in South Derbyshire til 2010.
I had S gain Spondon, lose Chellaston and N gain Allestree and was looking for which ward to split... when I noticed that Chaddesden could be transferred whole and save me the split.
Derbyshire South 77,878
Gains back Chellaston (but not Boulton which used to be here as well), loses two westernmost wards of North West and Hatton.

[minionofmidas]

Two constituencies in Leicestershire are too small, and none are too large. I recommend no changes to Leicester East 73,320, Leicester South 77,156, Rutland & Melton 77,096, Charnwood 74,734 or Loughborough 77,464 - though in the case of the latter two, I had at first intended to.
Leicestershire North West 75,760 gains the Markfield, Stanton & Fieldhead ward from Bosworth 72,699.
Leicester West 72,479 gains the Ravenhurst & Fosse and Millfield wards from South Leicestershire. I had at first intended to also add Winstanley, but it creates problems down the line.

And then I have two maps for the remaining territory. The minor change one:
Leicestershire South 73,360
Loses Ravenhurst & Fosse, Millfield; gains Bosworth, Lubenham (confusingly, there are two places called Bosworth in Leicestershire)
Harborough 74,375
Loses Bosworth, Lubenham.

But those two city line to county line constituencies are walking abortions anyways, and with these losses the misnamed Harborough (it's dominated by the northern, suburban part, not by Market Harborough) gets ever narrower.
Blaby, Oadby & Wigston 73,360
The Oadby & Wigston district from the Harborough constituency, and the Blaby district parts of South Leicestershire, excluding Ravenhurst & Fosse, Millfield (which are of course in Leicester West) and the five relatively rural wards of Countesthorpe, Cosby with South Whetstone, Stanton & Flamville, Croft Hill, and Normanton. The way it reaches around Leicester to include Winstanley is somewhat ugly, and a better map could probably be devised, but only by breaching the city line in a second place.
Harborough 73,257
The five wards listed above and all of Harborough district except the parts in Rutland & Melton.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, of course Northamptonshire + MK is not a seat loss at all.

Corby 78,275 and Wellingborough 76,797 are left unchanged.

Kettering 73,336 gains the wards along the A14 - Clipston, Welford, and Yelvertoft.
In exchange, Daventry 74,737 gets the wards of Danvers & Wardoun, Middleton Cheney and Kings Sutton to the south. While it doesn't affect any of these wards, compared to the Atlas, South Northamptonshire district has been rewarded - and this was done so early that the constituency boundary was amended as well. Compared to what's shown in the Atlas, Cote ward is in South Northamptonshire but Milton Malbor parish is in Daventry. I'm not proposing to change the boundary in that area.

Northampton North 73,362 gains Billing, Ecton Brook, and Weston, but loses Delapre for a smoother outline.
Northampton South 74,198 is all the remainder of the town including the wards currently in South Northamptonshire.

Milton Keynes South 73,653 cedes Walton Park and Danesborough.
Milton Keynes North 73,569 gains these but cedes the two Newport Pagnell wards, Sherington and Olney.

That leaves us with Northamptonshire South & Newport Pagnell 73,085 current Northamptonshire South minus Northampton town areas, Danvers & Wardoun, Middleton Cheney and Kings Sutton, plus the abovementioned portion of MK. Map would look smoother if Hanslope Park could also be included here, but that takes the MK seats below target (unless you split Newport Pagnell instead.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Corby has no community of interest with east Northants. Is there any way it could be paired in the other direction, or do the figures not allow for that?

[minionofmidas]

Corby has no community of interest with east Northants. Is there any way it could be paired in the other direction, or do the figures not allow for that?

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure a Corby & Kettering seat is too large no matter how tightly drawn and the donut around it would be ugly. One could check if it's possible to exchange the whole of Corby proper for the whole of Kettering proper... but wouldn't that lead to just the same complaint?
"East Northamptonshire has to go somewhere" being the crux of the argument, though yes, it's possible that it's possible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suggest that we just deport all the rich idiots from the Home Counties who have been ruining Northants for decades back to where they came from. That's what my late Grandma would have argued for, anyway.

But, yeah, any constituency would be ugly. But as ugly as the current one? Alright, it doesn't look so bad, but it's dreadful, almost as good an argument against single-member districts as Rossendale & Darwen (though for different reasons).

[doktorb]

I still haven't found a solution to East Lancs =<  I have been looking at Google Earth to see how hilly and mountainy neighbouring wards are, I'm going to give it one more go, before plumping for....Maybe Darwen + bits below - Bolton or Bury?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Some pointers for you doktorb.  In Rossendale, Ramsbottom would go quite well with Eden ward in Rossendale (Edenfield) as it's part of the same valley - I think Edenfield was once part of Ramsbottom Urban District.  Whitworth is basically a Rochdale suburb that doesn't want to be part of Rochdale.

North Turton has very strong links with Bolton - it's the same side of the moors and has Bolton (BL7) postcodes and (01204) telephone numbers.  There are a couple of Bolton quiz league teams who play in North Turton.  South Turton is Bromley Cross and Bradshaw wards in Bolton.  The only problem is that North Turton is in the same ward as Tockholes, which is a Blackburn commuter village (with one of the worst traffic calming schemes on the planet).

Rivington and Adlington have quite strong links with Horwich and Blackrod - Rivington and Blackrod share the same high school, which is located at the west end of Horwich.

Other than those - no links.  In particular, I may have to post something uncomplimentary in bold capitals if you combine Darwen and Bolton.

[doktorb]

LOL.  Okay, I will try to avoid that. I remember being told that Whitworth wants out of Rochdale, maybe the Big Society could organise a binding referendum

[minionofmidas]

I suggest that we just deport all the rich idiots from the Home Counties who have been ruining Northants for decades back to where they came from. That's what my late Grandma would have argued for, anyway.

But, yeah, any constituency would be ugly. But as ugly as the current one?

Possibly worse.

Corby + anything in Kettering borough west of Kettering proper (Desborough etc) + those three Daventry wards listed above + the fairly empty northernmore bits of East Northants to just north of Oundle (73,031) vs
Kettering proper + the central and south central bits of East Northants from Irthlingborough north to Oundle (78,580)?

[doktorb]

I've put the 15 seat Lancashire in the gallery.....So  here, at last, is what I've done for a 15 seat Lancashire. I'll prepare to hide from any brickbats!

I will try to upload a map with labels, but I am sure the more attentive of you will work out what is what...

Darwen, Egerton and Pleasington   77,488
Blackpool North and Fleetwood   72,765
Blackpool South   74,074
Burnley and Accrington   76,827
Chorley and Wrightington   75,692
Blackburn and Rishton   78,881
Fylde   76,339
Lancaster and Morecambe   78,808
Pendle and Burnley North   78,931
Preston   74,807
Rossendale and Ramsbottom   77,638
South Ribble   76,190
Valleys of Ribble and Lune   74,671
West Lancashire   76,704
Wyre and Preston North   76,733

[minionofmidas]

I'd rename a few of these seats. And maybe replace those two urban Wyre wards with rural Fylde ones. I think Blackpool N can take one of them, too.
Darwen, Egerton and Pleasington   Darwen, Turton & Blackburn West
Chorley and Wrightington
Blackburn and Rishton Blackburn East & Oswaldtwistle (or incorporating two place names in Hyndburn - BE, O & either Rishton or Clayton-le-Moors)
Preston South & Bamber Bridge
Wyre and Preston North (is barely retainable with the current map, although it's still better to rotate them round. If those last two urban Wyre precincts go out, though, as I think they should...)

Now all that remains to be done is amend Andrew's Greater Manchester map to accomodate the ward losses and drop one seat.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I'd rename a few of these seats. And maybe replace those two urban Wyre wards with rural Fylde ones. I think Blackpool N can take one of them, too.
Darwen, Egerton and Pleasington   Darwen, Turton & Blackburn West
Chorley and Wrightington
Blackburn and Rishton Blackburn East & Oswaldtwistle (or incorporating two place names in Hyndburn - BE, O & either Rishton or Clayton-le-Moors)
Preston South & Bamber Bridge
Wyre and Preston North (is barely retainable with the current map, although it's still better to rotate them round. If those last two urban Wyre precincts go out, though, as I think they should...)

Now all that remains to be done is amend Andrew's Greater Manchester map to accomodate the ward losses and drop one seat.

Like those names better.  We absolutely have to put Oswaldtwistle in a constituency name just to annoy everyone who can't pronounce it.

Darwen, Turton and Blackburn West is very similar to the Darwen seat of years gone by.

Rossendale and Ramsbottom might be better as "Irwell Valley".

Consequences for Greater Manchester: well obviously I still prefer my version but...
(a) leave Heywood and Middleton as is. 
(b) the seat disappears in the Bury and Bolton area.  My proposals were for Bury North, Bury South, Bolton NE, Bolton SE and Bolton W roughly as now; you'll probably be ending up with something like Bury and Prestwich, Bolton E and Radcliffe, Bolton N and Bolton W.