Let the great boundary rejig commence

[minionofmidas]

Foyle 76,337
Regains the Claudy and Banagher wards (the rural part of Derry's local authority) from East; gains the Slievekirk, Dunnamanagh, and Artigairvan wards from West Tyrone
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 78,206
Gains the remaining portion of Dungannon district.
Mid & West Tyrone (or whatever) 79,503
West Tyrone constituency excluding Slievekirk, Dunnamanagh and Artigairvan; Cookstown district
Coleraine, Limavady & Magherafelt 75,403
East excluding Claudy, Banagher, and Dundooan, Dunluce and all of The Skerries to the northeast; Magherafelt district from Mid Ulster
North Antrim 79,226
Gains The Skerries, Dundooan and Dunluce, loses Grange and Kells wards to the south
East Antrim 77,272
Gains all of the Macedon electoral area (or whatever the STV constituencies of Northern Ireland are actually called?) from Belfast North and the remainder of the University electoral area from South Antrim. Makes for an oddlooking boundary as the rural Ballynure ward just north of that remains in South Antrim, but I need these people in South.
South Antrim 73,208
Loses those four University wards to East, gains almost all of the Antrim Line electoral area (two wards are currently in already - Mallusk on the rural western edge of Newtownabbey, Burnthill right between the areas its losing and the ones its gaining), Grange and Kells wards from North Antrim, and the Ballinderry ward from Lagan Valley
Upper Bann 74,727
unchanged
Newry & Armagh 74,364
unchanged
South Down 78,222
Regains Ballymaglave, Ballynahinch and Kilmore, gains Killyleagh. Still doesn't include all of Down district, though.
Lisburn 79,467
Loses Ballinderry, remainder of Dunmurry (Seymour Hill and part of the sole split ward of Derryaghy); gains Carryduff East and West and Moneyreagh in Castlereagh, the Ards West electoral area in Ards, and the Saintfield and Derryboy wards in Down.
I didn't feel a constituency extending to Strangford Lough could continue to be named "Lagan Valley". Lisburn remains the dominant town, if not quite as completely as in the old Lagan Valley.
North Down 79,318
Loses the Holywood electoral area, gains Newtonards town (not including the partly rural Bradshaw's Brae and Ballyraine wards), Loughries and the Ards peninsula.
Belfast East 79,063
Regains Hillfoot and Wynchurch, gains Galwally from Belfast South; to the east, gains Holywood, Bradshaw's Brae and Ballyraine. (53% outside Belfast city limits, up from 37%.)
Belfast South 78,027
Loses Hillfoot, Wynchurch, Galwally, Carryduff; gains all of Dunmurry and the southwest Belfast wards of Ladybrook, Andersonstown, Glen Road and Glencolin. (34% outside Belfast city limits - which is, randomly, unchanged from right now.)
Belfast North West 75,653
Remainder of Belfast West and Belfast part of Belfast North. (Wholly within the city.)

Broadly speaking the Mid Ulster, Belfast West, and Strangford seats are abolished. That includes two of the seven Catholic-majority seats... but Belfast North (now North West) obviously flips and then some, and I'm quite confident that South (which is already Catholic held despite a Proddy majority) flips too, making for 8 Protestant and 7 Catholic seats.

[minionofmidas]

Oh yeah, all seats within the corridor.

[minionofmidas]

YESS!!! STRIKE!

The Highland Council website has areas for their wards!

[minionofmidas]

Because it would have been too easy otherwise, both Scottish (old and new) and Westminster constituencies split wards.
The proposed new Scottish constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross has 13,782 minus whatever the area of Lochalsh is. (Which is historically Inverness-shire, is in Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, but is in Wester Ross, Strathpeffer & Lochalsh ward.) I am reasonably confident that this area is somewhere round about 800 to 900 square kilometers, so the Scottish constituency can *probably* be used for Westminster. Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch is 11,614 plus Lochalsh minus Strathspey (part of Badenoch & Strathspey ward), so I suppose it's over 12,000 too but might be enlarged by Strathspey and all or most of Strathdearn (caught in the misnamed Inverness South ward, really Inverness Southeast & Strathdearn.) Note that the constituency actually includes Dingwall and the Black Isle too, so hey, if the Lochalsh part is just under 782 square kilometers, maybe transfer some little community in that already divided area.
The populations are 57,405 minus Lochalsh; and 59,569 plus Lochalsh plus perhaps Strathdearn.
Leaving 3,746,627 minus perhaps Strathdearn for the remaining 48 seats, an average round about 78 thousand. With no increased tolerance.

EDIT: Wait a sec. According to the electorate stated on page 6, I should be left with "only" 3,697,528, or an average about 77k.

[minionofmidas]

Christ. The reason is that the by ward table here is for local and Scottish elections - that is to say it includes EU citizens residing in Scotland (and also peers, but at the same time does not include expats registered in Scotland for Westminster purposes. These are comparatively small groups of people however.) Westminster electorate by ward is apparently not actually available.

[minionofmidas]

The only level at which Westminster electorates are available is the current Westminster constituencies. At which level the other set is not available. And as the Westminster constituencies were drawn based on the old single-member ward map and are still described in its terms only...
the best I could do was sum Westminster constituencies into local authorities or groups thereof, and compare to the local electorates for those. Percentage is the difference, expressed as a share of the higher figure.

Highland   171,587 174,428 1.6%
Moray         66,169   66,872 1.1%
Aberdeen 332,593 339,550 2.0% City of Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire
Dundee    190,454 192,861 1.2% and Angus
Perth        148,099 150,468 1.6% Perth & Kinross, Clackmannanshire
Stirling        66,218   67,211 1.5%
Argyll & B    67,461   68,047 0.9%
Dumbarton 66,642   66,868 0.3% West Dunbartonshire
N Lanark   328,815 330,662 0.6% and East Dunbartonshire
Glasgow   414,146 421,030 1.6%
E Renfrew   66,202   66,498 0.4%
Renfrew    125,156 126,492 1.1%
Inverclyde   58,971   59,284 0.5%
Ayrshire     291,952 293,283 0.5% North, East, South Ayrshire
S Lanark    445,276 448,389 0.7% and Dumfries & Galloway, Scottish Borders
Fife            281,783 285,195 1.2%
W Lothian  239,864 242,372 1.0% and Falkirk
Edinburgh  318,199 328,071 3.0%
Midlothian    61,461   61,943 0.8%
E Lothian     73,454   74,077 0.8%

Best I can do is adjust all figures by these percentages (pretend the percentage is identical across the local authority / group of authorities) before determining if they're within corridor.

So Caithness etc 56,601-x
Skye etc 58,616+x-x

[minionofmidas]

City of Aberdeen ca.153,465 2.02
Aberdeen, Moray, Inverness & Nairn ca.301,832 3.98
Dundee, Angus, Perth & Kinross ca.300,014 3.95
Fife, Clackmannanshire, Stirling ca.386,502 5.09 (sounds bizarre. Just means Clackmannanshire is divided between a larger part used to get the four current Fife seats up to quota and a smaller part used to bring the current Stirling seat up to quota, though.)
Argyll, Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire 462,918 6.10
Falkirk, West, Mid Lothian, Edinburgh 619,524 8.17. Will have to look into that.
East Lothian 73,454 .97. Might take in part of Mid Lothian.
That leaves us with a remainder worth 18.50 seats that can only get 18. Jeesus. Well, that's what you get when you round down Scotland's (sans Isles) 50.odd entitlement to 50 and then force the drawing of two hugely undersized seats - you need to get an area worth 49 seats into 48. In other words, they're making the Central Belt pay for being in the same country as the Highlands.

South Lanarkshire needs to shed just minuscule territory to fit into three seats.
Glasgow, East Renfrewshire, and "Renfrewshire" is 7.98, could take part of South Lanarkshire.
Ayrshire, Dumfries & Galloway, and Inverclyde is 6.16. Difficult, but certainly not impossible.
Borders and East Lothian is too big together, though.

Okay...
Inverness, Moray, Aberdeenshire, Angus is about 5.12
Dundee, Perth & Kinross, Stirling, Fife, Clackmannan, Falkirk, West Lothian, Edinburgh is round about 15.26.
Borders and Midlothian is 1.99.

[doktorb]

LOL - you may not neede it but I do ! I've got to get this ready for sending my submission off in December (or whenever it is)

[minionofmidas]

LOL - you may not neede it but I do ! I've got to get this ready for sending my submission off in December (or whenever it is)

I was thinking of an Atlas Forum group submission.

[doktorb]

LOL - you may not neede it but I do ! I've got to get this ready for sending my submission off in December (or whenever it is)

I was thinking of an Atlas Forum group submission.

Ooooh, now I hadn't thought about doing that! Epic idea.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

LOL - you may not neede it but I do ! I've got to get this ready for sending my submission off in December (or whenever it is)

I was thinking of an Atlas Forum group submission.

Ooooh, now I hadn't thought about doing that! Epic idea.

Excellent idea.

[doktorb]

Oh wait, I think the reason why this is taking so long is because of the stupid ward sizes in stupid Salford and stupid geography and DAMN STUPID KERSAL!!

If Kersal didn't exist I'd've been laughing.  Riiiiiiiight, time to start all over AGAIN.

[doktorb]

No, hah, got it....

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This leaves Ordsall, Irwell and Broughton at, what, 22k ish ?  I am back on track....

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

No, hah, got it....

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Prestwich is St Mary's and Holyrood and Sedgley wards.  I don't support this seat.

[doktorb]

No, hah, got it....

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Prestwich is St Mary's and Holyrood and Sedgley wards.  I don't support this seat.

Bollocks. I thought it might be....Damn it, er.....can I offer a name change? I'm well onto Manchester now, I can't fiddle with Salford without splitting wards and there's no way an ordinary person can be expected to faff about with ward splitting.

"Bury and Prestwich" and "Worsley and....."..... what is the eastern Prestwich bits, then? I'll check election-maps.....

[doktorb]

Aaagh this is so annoying. I 'll have to undo all my work to keep Prestwich together.

I'm starting to really fsking hate this boundary review business.

How do you lot get it done so quickly?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I've been away from doing this since getting into a Salford/Bolton/Manc trap. I'll get back to this today, hopefully.

Ah, I don't think we need that anymore. We'll just use Andrew's (second one, the one based on your Lancs map).

For reference, those second proposals in full:

ROCHDALE

Heywood and Middleton 79031.  Unchanged.
Rochdale 77471.  Unchanged.

GREATER MANCHESTER NORTH

First, the easy bit:
Wigan 75035.
Makerfield 73447.
Leigh 75330.  All unchanged.

Salford:
Salford 81275-x.  Takes Broughton and Kersal back from Blackley and Broughton and loses Eccles and the western half of Swinton North (Wardley).
Eccles and Worsley 72728+x.  Gains Eccles and Wardley, reunifying Eccles in one seat.  Loses the sink estate of Little Hulton to a Bolton seat.

Doktorb's proposals move South Turton and the towns north of Bury (Rammy, Totty and N Manor wards) into Lancashire seats, so Bury and Bolton will lose a seat in consequence.

Bury and Prestwich 73957+x. East, Moorside, Redvales and Unsworth from Bury; Besses and Pilkington Park from Whitefield; Holyrood, St Mary's and Sedgley from Prestwich; the half of Radcliffe West ward south of the Irwell.
Radcliffe-cum-Farnworth 82512-x.  Church and Elton from Bury (the two wards west of the Irwell); the two-and-a-half remaining Radcliffe wards; Little Lever, Farnworth, Harper Green and Kearsley.
Bolton 76903+x.  Almost all the old County Borough except Heaton; Astley Bridge, Breightmet, Crompton, Halliwell, Smithills, Tonge/The Haulgh, Great Lever, Rumworth.
Westhoughton 79801-x.  The current Bolton West minus Smithills plus Over and Little Hulton.  This is slightly over tolerance, so move the boundary between Heaton and Smithills a couple of streets further west.

GREATER MANCHESTER SOUTH

Oldham East and Saddleworth 72307-x.
Oldham West and Royton 72066+x.
I would have left these two alone, but Oldham West and Royton is a whole three voters outside tolerance.  Only a very small transfer is needed here; moving the boundary to the other side of a terrace or two should do it.

Hazel Grove 73150.
Takes Manor ward out of Stockport.

Stockport 82533-x.
Cheadle 71927+x.
Stockport moves north to take in the southern half of Denton and Reddish (the two Reddish wards plus Denton West).  This enables it to lose the western half of Davenport and Cale Green (the Adswood area) to Cheadle.  Apart from that Cheadle is unchanged.

Stalybridge and Hyde 78337.  Gains Dukinfield ward from Denton and Reddish, otherwise unchanged.
Ashton-under-Lyne 77338.  Ashton tends to get knocked about at boundary review time and this is no exception.  This Ashton gains the remainder of Denton and Audenshaw from Denton and Reddish.  To compensate for this, it loses Failsworth to...
Blackley and Failsworth 80420-x.  Charlestown, Cheetham, Crumpsall, Higher Blackley, Harpurhey, Moston, Failsworth East and Failsworth West.  This is slightly too large so the southern half of Cheetham ward (the area around Victoria Station and Strangeways Prison) will be shifted into Manchester Central.
Manchester Central 63870+x.  Ancoats/Clayton, Ardwick, Bradford, City Centre, Hulme, Miles Platting/Newton Heath and southern Cheetham as above.
I take the point that this is a very small margin of error, but the current Manchester Central is growing very strongly and by December this should be less of a problem.
Manchester Gorton 72891.  Fallowfield, the Gortons, Longsight, Moss Side, Rusholme, Whalley Range.
Manchester Withington 72685+x.  Burnage, Chorlton, Chorlton Park, Didsbury West, Levenshulme, Old Moat, Withington and the northern half of Didsbury East.

Unfortunately Sale has to be divided between three seats because of the numbers and geography of Trafford.

Wythenshawe and Sale East 77513-x.  Gains the southern half of Didsbury East; loses Brooklands.
Altrincham and Sale South 71845+x.  Gains Brooklands, loses half of Ashton upon Mersey.
Stretford and Urmston 77295-x.  The current seat plus the northern half of Ashton upon Mersey.

[doktorb]

Cheers for that. Remember, I've done and dusted Lancashire, which includes three Bury wards, I can't start unpicking that.

Looks like I'm just not good enough for this. You've beaten me at something I thought I was good at!

[YL]

Foyle 76,337
Regains the Claudy and Banagher wards (the rural part of Derry's local authority) from East; gains the Slievekirk, Dunnamanagh, and Artigairvan wards from West Tyrone
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 78,206
Gains the remaining portion of Dungannon district.
Mid & West Tyrone (or whatever) 79,503
West Tyrone constituency excluding Slievekirk, Dunnamanagh and Artigairvan; Cookstown district
Coleraine, Limavady & Magherafelt 75,403
East excluding Claudy, Banagher, and Dundooan, Dunluce and all of The Skerries to the northeast; Magherafelt district from Mid Ulster
North Antrim 79,226
Gains The Skerries, Dundooan and Dunluce, loses Grange and Kells wards to the south
East Antrim 77,272
Gains all of the Macedon electoral area (or whatever the STV constituencies of Northern Ireland are actually called?) from Belfast North and the remainder of the University electoral area from South Antrim. Makes for an oddlooking boundary as the rural Ballynure ward just north of that remains in South Antrim, but I need these people in South.
South Antrim 73,208
Loses those four University wards to East, gains almost all of the Antrim Line electoral area (two wards are currently in already - Mallusk on the rural western edge of Newtownabbey, Burnthill right between the areas its losing and the ones its gaining), Grange and Kells wards from North Antrim, and the Ballinderry ward from Lagan Valley
Upper Bann 74,727
unchanged
Newry & Armagh 74,364
unchanged
South Down 78,222
Regains Ballymaglave, Ballynahinch and Kilmore, gains Killyleagh. Still doesn't include all of Down district, though.
Lisburn 79,467
Loses Ballinderry, remainder of Dunmurry (Seymour Hill and part of the sole split ward of Derryaghy); gains Carryduff East and West and Moneyreagh in Castlereagh, the Ards West electoral area in Ards, and the Saintfield and Derryboy wards in Down.
I didn't feel a constituency extending to Strangford Lough could continue to be named "Lagan Valley". Lisburn remains the dominant town, if not quite as completely as in the old Lagan Valley.
North Down 79,318
Loses the Holywood electoral area, gains Newtonards town (not including the partly rural Bradshaw's Brae and Ballyraine wards), Loughries and the Ards peninsula.
Belfast East 79,063
Regains Hillfoot and Wynchurch, gains Galwally from Belfast South; to the east, gains Holywood, Bradshaw's Brae and Ballyraine. (53% outside Belfast city limits, up from 37%.)
Belfast South 78,027
Loses Hillfoot, Wynchurch, Galwally, Carryduff; gains all of Dunmurry and the southwest Belfast wards of Ladybrook, Andersonstown, Glen Road and Glencolin. (34% outside Belfast city limits - which is, randomly, unchanged from right now.)
Belfast North West 75,653
Remainder of Belfast West and Belfast part of Belfast North. (Wholly within the city.)

Broadly speaking the Mid Ulster, Belfast West, and Strangford seats are abolished. That includes two of the seven Catholic-majority seats... but Belfast North (now North West) obviously flips and then some, and I'm quite confident that South (which is already Catholic held despite a Proddy majority) flips too, making for 8 Protestant and 7 Catholic seats.

I think "Coleraine, Limavady and Magherafelt" must be very close to flipping too.  (The three districts combined have a narrow Protestant majority, but the area of Coleraine district you've taken out is certainly contributing to that.)

Your "west" is essentially the same as mine.  Comparing your "east" with my attempt at keeping a 4 seat Belfast, I think yours is probably better, although the South Belfast remap may still be controversial

The redrawn West Tyrone may actually get renamed "Mid Ulster", as it's similar to the seat which had that name before 1997.

[minionofmidas]

I think "Coleraine, Limavady and Magherafelt" must be very close to flipping too.  (The three districts combined have a narrow Protestant majority, but the area of Coleraine district you've taken out is certainly contributing to that.)

Uh oh. A Catholic gerrymander was not my intention.

[minionofmidas]

City of Aberdeen ca.153,465 2.02

Aberdeen North 74,002*.98 +x
Dyce etc, Bridge of Don, Northfield, Hilton/Stockethill, Tillydrone etc, George Street/Harbour, and the eastern (Rosemount) portion of Midstocket/Rosemount (10,991).
Aberdeen South 82,595*.98 -x
Remainder.
I strongly suspect that the 2.0% Europeans in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire are overrepresented in Aberdeen but am too lazy to review the evidence. If so, it's *just about* possible that the ward split is unnecessary, in which case it oughtn't to happen.

[YL]

I think "Coleraine, Limavady and Magherafelt" must be very close to flipping too.  (The three districts combined have a narrow Protestant majority, but the area of Coleraine district you've taken out is certainly contributing to that.)

Uh oh. A Catholic gerrymander was not my intention.

In that case it isn't a gerrymander...

What's the alternative?  It's probably just about possible to make four seats in the west within the target range using the territory of the existing five seats, but you wouldn't have much room to play with.  The map above also works well with the district boundaries, and you'd lose that.

I suppose part of south-east Tyrone (the Blackwater electoral area) could be transferred from FST into Newry and Armagh as an alternative way of trimming the west, but there would be knock-on effects...

Anyway, the DUP might well hold the seat even if it did have a small Catholic majority.

[minionofmidas]

Inverness, Moray, Aberdeenshire, Angus is about 5.12

Highland   171,587 174,428 1.6%
Moray         66,169   66,872 1.1%
Aberdeen 332,593 339,550 2.0% City of Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire
Dundee    190,454 192,861 1.2% and Angus

Inverness remnant portion 57,454*.984 (ca. 56,535)
Aberdeenshire 182,953*.98 (ca. 179,294)
Angus 86,536*.988 (ca. 85,498)

One seat Inverness and parts of Moray, a Moray seat extending into Banffshire, a seat taking in the bulk of Angus, two broadly Aberdeenshire seats with a northern bit lopped off and a southern bit slapped on. Right...

[minionofmidas]

I think "Coleraine, Limavady and Magherafelt" must be very close to flipping too.  (The three districts combined have a narrow Protestant majority, but the area of Coleraine district you've taken out is certainly contributing to that.)

Uh oh. A Catholic gerrymander was not my intention.

In that case it isn't a gerrymander...

A Catholic gerrymander also wasn't the local boundary commission for Northern Ireland's intention when they scaled back their earlier radical plans for district mergers and ended up with Belfast gaining only (or almost only) Dunmurry as that was the only area that didn't protest against being incorporated into Belfast. That didn't stop the Unionists from umming and aahing for two years and finally shooting the whole reform down over the threat of a City of Belfast just inches away from a Catholic majority.

[minionofmidas]

Inverness, Moray, Aberdeenshire, Angus is about 5.12

Highland   171,587 174,428 1.6%
Moray         66,169   66,872 1.1%
Aberdeen 332,593 339,550 2.0% City of Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire
Dundee    190,454 192,861 1.2% and Angus

Inverness remnant portion 57,454*.984 (ca. 56,535)
Aberdeenshire 182,953*.98 (ca. 179,294)
Angus 86,536*.988 (ca. 85,498)

One seat Inverness and parts of Moray, a Moray seat extending into Banffshire, a seat taking in the bulk of Angus, two broadly Aberdeenshire seats with a northern bit lopped off and a southern bit slapped on. Right...

Inverness, Nairn & Forres ca.77,123
Remainder of Highland (including Strathdearn... taking account of that as well would have made my headache even worse), Heldon & Laich and Forres wards of Moray
Moray & Banff ca.69,942+x
Remainder of Moray, Banff  & District, Troup, Turriff & District, and the northern part of Huntly etc ward (Strathbogie; this ward is 11,136*.98) of Aberdeenshire.
Gordon & Buchan (I suppose... what does "Gordon" refer to, exactly?) ca.80,414*.98
Fraserburgh, Central Buchan, Peterhead N & S, Mid Formantine, Ellon, East Garioch, Inverurie. If there are few furriners here (less than 1%), it might be above quota in which case a ward needs to be split.
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine ca.73,889+x
Remainder of Aberdeenshire including the southern parts of Huntly etc ward; Brechin & Edzell ward in Angus
Angus 77,722*.988
Remainder