Let the great boundary rejig commence

[doktorb]

I did, in the end!  Kind of....I'm at work so can't remember the exact details, but....

Eccles and Prestwich looks bonkers on a map but that's just the shape of the eastern wards in Salford
Salford Quays and Urmston (.....no, wait, Flixton? No, Urmston.....) means I cannot join Manchester with Salford at all now, but such are the sacrifices one has to make...
Altrincham and Sale West is pretty much the same as before

Wythenshawe and Didsbury almost skittled the whole thing, I think Didsbury has been split in two but can't help that.....
Stretford and Chorlton looks a bit odd, but I needed

[doktorb]

Blackley and Piccadilly      76,503
Cheetham   00BNGT   12,408
City Centre   00BNGX   11,147
Crumpsall   00BNGY   9,888
Harpurhey   00BNHE   11,380
Higher Blackley   00BNHF   10,156
Hulme   00BNHG   10,708
Moston   00BNHM   10,816

Gorton and Newton Heath      73,867
Longsight   00BNHJ   9,844
Gorton North   00BNHC   10,507
Gorton South   00BNHD   11,501
Ardwick   00BNGM   10,692
Bradford   00BNGP   10,320
Ancoats and Clayton   00BNGL   10,726
Miles Platting and Newton Heath   00BNHK   10,277

Withington and Rusholme      72,648
Old Moat   00BNHP   10,362
Withington   00BNHT   10,762
Burnage   00BNGR   10,387
Levenshulme   00BNHH   10,480
Rusholme   00BNHQ   9,600
Fallowfield   00BNHB   10,221
Moss Side   00BNHL   10,836

Wythenshawe and Didsbury      72,165
Brooklands   00BNGQ   10,141
Baguley   00BNGN   10,563
Sharston   00BNHR   11,131
Woodhouse Park   00BNHU   9,544
Northenden   00BNHN   10,623
Didsbury East   00BNGZ   10,309
Didsbury West   00BNHA   9,854

Stretford and Chorlton      77,103
Ashton upon Mersey   00BUFZ   7,239
Longford   00BUGM   8,481
Priory   00BUGN   7,698
Sale Moor   00BUGQ   7,504
Stretford   00BUGR   7,746
Clifford   00BUGE   7,213
Chorlton   00BNGU   10,369
Chorlton Park   00BNGW   10,471
Whalley Range   00BNHS   10,382

[doktorb]

Ruddy hell, it's been a while....

[doktorb]

One of my final, final, honest it is proposals is over quota, I'll try to find a way of dealing with this MUCH LATER


Blackburn   74,745
Blackpool North and Fleetwood   72,422
Blackpool South   74,417
Bowland   74,671
Burnley and Accrington   76,827
Chorley   78,871
Darwen and East Blackburn   72,650
Fylde   76,339
Lancaster and Morecambe   78,808
Pendle and Burnley North   78,931
Preston   74,807
Rossendale and Ramsbottom   77,638
South Ribble   76,190
West Lancashire   78,318
Wyre and Preston North   76,733

Altrincham and Sale West    79,051
Ashton-under-Lyne and Droylsden   77,802
Blackley and Newton Heath    74,796
Bolton    75,163
Bramhall and Davenport   82,622
Cheadle and Didsbury   72,374
Denton, Reddish and Romiley   78,567
Eccles and Prestwich    75,302
Gorton and Burnage    73,843
Heald Green and Wythenshawe    73,266
Leigh   75,868
Littlebrough and Saddleworth   78,735
Makerfield   73,568
Marple North, Stalybridge and Hyde   78,873
Middleton, Moston and Failsworth   73,790
Oldham   72,697
Picadilly and Rusholme    73,524
Radcliffe and Farnworth    78,703
Rochdale   78,229
Salford Quays and Urmston    79,212
Stretford and Chorlton    77,103
Westhoughton and Tydlesley    76,270
Wigan   72,877
Worsley    73,082

[doktorb]

Maps of my Lancashire/Gtr Manchester offerings are here..


http://www.scribd.com/doc/47198969/Boundary-Maps

[afleitch]

Lords Amendment retains Isle of Wight as a single constituency.

[Insula Dei]

Lords Amendment retains Isle of Wight as a single constituency.

The coalition wasn't going to cut deeper in its own flesh than they needed to, or so it seems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The government has decreed that the Isle of Wight will be given two constituencies entirely on the Isle of Wight. Given the general direction of policy, I don't quite see how that can be justified on anything other than partisan grounds.

People on the Island that I can see when I stick my head out of my window will probably be less than amused.

[You kip if you want to...]

The government has decreed that the Isle of Wight will be given two constituencies entirely on the Isle of Wight. Given the general direction of policy, I don't quite see how that can be justified on anything other than partisan grounds.

People on the Island that I can see when I stick my head out of my window will probably be less than amused.

What a stupid idea...

[YL]

The government has decreed that the Isle of Wight will be given two constituencies entirely on the Isle of Wight. Given the general direction of policy, I don't quite see how that can be justified on anything other than partisan grounds.

People on the Island that I can see when I stick my head out of my window will probably be less than amused.

I think it would be reasonable to say that the Isle of Wight should be divided into the whole number of constituencies which makes the average closest to the quota, which I think would have more or less the same effect as the amendment passed, even if automatically giving it two seats is a bit silly.

I think this change does actually improve the bill - a half Wight/half mainland Hampshire constituency would have been a real monstrosity - but other monstrosities (e.g. one spanning the Tamar) still seem likely.

[minionofmidas]

Just abolish the whole uberstrict quota crap. Because crap is what it is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just abolish the whole uberstrict quota crap. Because crap is what it is.

Won't happen until the government realises that it won't be as electorally beneficial to them as they've deluded themselves into believing...

[You kip if you want to...]

There'll still be a "bias" to Labour with the caps. Turnout will still be lower in Liverpool than in the Shires, meaning that it'll take less raw votes to elect a Labour MP. Simple thinking really.

[afleitch]

Boundary Commission for Scotland to 'make an annoucement' on March 4th concerning the start of the Westminster Review.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

In related news, the 2011 UK electorate figures are now out.  With calculations for the new rules:

England less IOW	38332557	500+2 seats
Wales	2281596	30 seats
Scotland less islands	3873387	50+2 seats
Northern Ireland	1190635	16 seats
TOTAL	45678175	596+4 seats

Quota is 76641 electors, lower bound 72810 (but 70853 in Northern Ireland because the province isn't close to a whole number of seats), upper bound 80473.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_other/uk-electoral-statistics-2010.xls

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

There'll still be a "bias" to Labour with the caps. Turnout will still be lower in Liverpool than in the Shires, meaning that it'll take less raw votes to elect a Labour MP. Simple thinking really.

Another very good reason for PR ^^

[afleitch]

A bigger than expected leap in Glasgow's electorate.

EDIT: Seems like nearly 10,000 voters have appeared in Glasgow Central. Hmmmm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There'll still be a "bias" to Labour with the caps. Turnout will still be lower in Liverpool than in the Shires, meaning that it'll take less raw votes to elect a Labour MP. Simple thinking really.

Actually - as I've shown here and other places before - there was very little sign of this mystical 'bias' in 2010. What is true is that it's easier for Labour to win a majority than the Tories, something that won't change just because of these new and idiotic rules (even though that's the intention).

[YL]

Ward figures for Northern Ireland can be found via http://www.eoni.org.uk/index/statistics/electorate-statistics.htm

So, here's a first go at a 16 seat map, trying to avoid thinking about the sectarian split.  I started off by noticing that the three south-eastern seats are all OK already.

1.  South Down (72,092).  Unchanged.

2.  Upper Bann (76,209).  Unchanged.

3.  Newry & Armagh (75,856).  Unchanged.

4.  Fermanagh & South Tyrone (76,337).  Gains the three Coalisland wards and Washing Bay.

5.  West Tyrone (72,887).  Gains two Dungannon and five Cookstown district wards from Mid-Ulster.  The name just about still works as it doesn't touch Lough Neagh.

6.  Foyle (72,573).  Regains Banagher and Claudy.  I would call this Derry City but that's not going to happen.

(now things get messy)

7.  Limavady & Mid Ulster The Sperrins (75,083).  Compared with current Mid Ulster, loses territory to seats 4 and 5 above; gains the whole of Limavady district and three southern wards of Coleraine district.  Anybody fancy naming this?

8.  Coleraine & North Antrim (75,568).  That part of Coleraine district not in seat 7, all of Moyle and Ballymoney districts, five wards of Ballymena district (currently Portglenone, Dunminning, Craigywarren, Cullybackey, Glenravel).

9.  Ballymena & East Antrim (78,256).  All of Larne and Carrickfergus districts, those parts of Ballymena district not in seats 8 or 10.

10.  South Antrim (71,838).  Loses Glenavy and Crumlin wards to Lagan Valley, gains two wards of Ballymena (Grange, Ahoghill) and those parts of Newtownabbey district currently in East Antrim.

11.  North Belfast (74,783).  Gains three Shankill Road wards from West Belfast.

12.  South-West Belfast (74,408).  Current West Belfast except Shankill Road wards, plus all of Balmoral electoral area, plus Stranmillis ward.  This would not, I think, be popular.

13.  East Belfast (72,569).  Loses five easternmost Castlereagh wards; gains all of current South Belfast inside the city boundary except those bits in seat 12, plus Galwally, Hillfoot and Wynchurch.

14.  Bangor & Ards (77,524).  Ards and North Down districts except those parts in seat 15.

15.  Mid Down (72,018).  Castlereagh district excluding those wards in seat 13; Holywood electoral area and Crawfordsburn from North Down district; Ards West electoral area and Ballyrainey and Bradshaw's Brae from Ards district; Down district wards currently in Strangford.  A bit of a mess, as indicated by the name, but I didn't really like anything else I thought of in this area either.

16.  Lagan Valley (72,634).  Regains Glenavy; also gains Crumlin ward from Antrim district.

I'm not sure I like this; it'd be interesting to see other ideas (excluding sectarian gerrymanders).

[afleitch]

Boundary Commission for Scotland confirms the inevitable;

"A national review of MPs’ constituencies gets underway today. New rules introduced
by the UK Government earlier this year, which result in a decrease in the number of
constituencies in Scotland from 59 to 52, make widespread change necessary.

The electoral quota for the review, which is the average electorate per constituency
across the UK, is 76,641.2, with the electorate of each constituency having to be
within 5% of that quota. As a result, the smallest permitted electorate is 72,810 and
the largest permitted electorate is 80,473."

[minionofmidas]

...except in the Islands, of course. Though Skye, Scilly and Anglesey are apparently not islands.

[afleitch]

...except in the Islands, of course. Though Skye, Scilly and Anglesey are apparently not islands.

Curiously some organs of Scottish Government (in terms of funding formulae) wished to strip Skye of it's island status as it is now bridged.

[minionofmidas]

That explains it, then. IIRC there is a bridge over the Menai as well, but none at Wight. While all the other island areas are even smaller (and less distant) than the Outer Hebrides. -_-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That explains it, then. IIRC there is a bridge over the Menai as well

I hear that they're both fairly well known.

[ObserverIE]

7.  Limavady & Mid Ulster (75,083).  Compared with current Mid Ulster, loses territory to seats 4 and 5 above; gains the whole of Limavady district and three southern wards of Coleraine district.  Anybody fancy naming this?

The Sperrins (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sperrins).