Let the great boundary rejig commence

[doktorb]

Other rumours leaking out -

*"Doesn't look good for Tim Farron" according to Paul Waugh

"Greater Manchester to cause a stir"

The MP for Brigg and Goole,  a former teacher, has tweeted a request for any teaching jobs.....

[minionofmidas]

Might this end up a lot like the last Scottish boundary review? Allchange original proposals, going back to as close as possible to the last map - and to the legislation's tolerance limits - in the end?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

*"Doesn't look good for Tim Farron" according to Paul Waugh

What, they haven't drawn Barrow & Kendal or something, have they?

[afleitch]

Might this end up a lot like the last Scottish boundary review? Allchange original proposals, going back to as close as possible to the last map - and to the legislation's tolerance limits - in the end?

I think that might be the case if there is enough pressure; certainly I think the urban seats will end up being undersized in relation to the rural seats at any rate. Worth noting that the drastic 5th Review in 2002 in Scotland resulted in very little change so they could end up sticking to their guns.

It's the variation limits that still sticks with me as that should always be at the discretion of the Commission. Without them the seats would be okay and some counties would go back to 70's/80's configurations.

[doktorb]

It is pretty much confirmed that the public release will be at midnight on the BCE website. I suspect they wanted to wait until late morning but that has been scuppered by the leaks and rumours

(about which something interesting might come because the Boundary Commission did warn Party Reps that too many rumours and leaks could mean they're not so friendly towards helping them out again....)

[afleitch]

It is pretty much confirmed that the public release will be at midnight on the BCE website. I suspect they wanted to wait until late morning but that has been scuppered by the leaks and rumours

(about which something interesting might come because the Boundary Commission did warn Party Reps that too many rumours and leaks could mean they're not so friendly towards helping them out again....)

I have a feeling it might crash

So big question....who wants to do the notionals?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's have a very quick competition. In which preserved county (or whatever) will the worst horror be drawn? I might post the winner a stupid postcard or something.

[afleitch]

Let's have a very quick competition. In which preserved county (or whatever) will the worst horror be drawn? I might post the winner a stupid postcard or something.

I'm going with Staffordshire.

[minionofmidas]

It will be impossible to decide as there will be very many deserving claimants.

Do I win?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It will be impossible to decide as there will be very many deserving claimants.

Do I win?

If there isn't a clear winner, then, yeah.

[afleitch]

Scottish Commission have published electorate by postcode unit

http://www.bcomm-scotland.gov.uk/6th_westminster/electoratedata/

[doktorb]

Rumours Hazel Blears has lost hers....

[doktorb]

It is pretty much confirmed that the public release will be at midnight on the BCE website. I suspect they wanted to wait until late morning but that has been scuppered by the leaks and rumours

(about which something interesting might come because the Boundary Commission did warn Party Reps that too many rumours and leaks could mean they're not so friendly towards helping them out again....)

I have a feeling it might crash

So big question....who wants to do the notionals?

I have no doubt it will crash.  Log on at about midnight, it'll go under at five-past....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours Hazel Blears has lost hers....

There has to be a seat centred around Salford proper, so I don't see how that can be true. Unless things are even more insane than seems likely.

[doktorb]

I'm hearing Manchester Central has taken Salford city centre, which if true, is utterly mental.

Leigh (Andy Burnham's seat) is also said to have been split into pieces.

[doktorb]

The entire thing has been leaked to Guido's "Order Order" website.

[afleitch]

Maps too?

[minionofmidas]

They call it Manchester Central but it really, really, really ought to be Manchester & Salford Central. 40% of it is in Salford.

[doktorb]

That's nothing. Their "Leigh" doesn't include.....Leigh.

[minionofmidas]

Maps too?

No.

They didn't cross the Mersey though... but they called the South Wirral-and-into-Cheshire seat "Mersey Banks".
There is also a Greater Manchester-Cheshire (Stockport-Poynton) and a Greater Manchester-Lancashire (Rochdale-Rossendale) constituency.

[doktorb]

I have a sneaking suspicion that these proposals will not look anything like this in the end.....

[afleitch]

They didn't cross the Mersey though... but they called the South Wirral-and-into-Cheshire seat "Mersey Banks".

Sounds like an ITV drama.

[minionofmidas]

Oy.

"40. The existing constituencies of Birkenhead and Wallasey are slightly reconfigured both to achieve electorates within 5% of the electoral quota and to better reflect the development of the two towns. Many of the wards currently contained within the constituencies of Wirral South and Wirral West are included in our proposed Hoylake and Neston constituency, which extends south to incorporate the town of Neston. The communities within the constituency are connected by the A540 which runs throughout.
41. The remaining wards of the sub-region are included in our proposed Mersey Banks constituency, which stretches along the southern bank of the River Mersey and inland to Weaverham. Additionally, it incorporates the Borough of Halton wards of Ditton and Hale, on the north bank of the River Mersey. Consequently, the constituency is divided by the Manchester Ship Canal and the River Mersey, despite the nearest cross-river transport link being the Silver Jubilee Bridge between Runcorn and Widnes.
42. While we were keen to avoid proposing a constituency which contains detached parts, our modelling suggests that to do so, while maintaining a constituency which wholly incorporates the centre of the city of Chester, would have a number of consequences across the whole of the sub-region. These consequences would include: dividing the
town of Winsford between two constituencies; dividing the town of Nantwich between two constituencies; the creation of a constituency that incorporates wards from the centre of Warrington with the town of Knutsford and the surrounding area; and leaving no retention
of existing constituencies. We have referred here to our reservations in proposing this constituency, but, on balance, we considered that our proposed cross-river Mersey Banks constituency allowed for the most satisfactory distribution of constituencies across the whole area."

[minionofmidas]

And Rossendale and Darwen loses the southern half of Rossendale (to Rochdale N & Rawtenstall), compensating with areas beyond Rossendale, around Oswaldtwistle, and is to be called Darwen & Haslingden.

[doktorb]

They needed to scrap "Rossendale and Darwen". I would not have scrapped it in quite that fashion....