Let the great boundary rejig commence

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour's full counterproposal for Lancashire and Cheshire has now been posted by "dadge" on
http://ukelect.wordpress.com/2011/10/13/labour-counterproposals-north-west-england/

And now he has the Tory proposals up too:
http://ukelect.wordpress.com/2011/10/16/conservative-counterproposals-north-west-england/

Featuring more ways to make a horrible mess of Cheshire.

Upton isn't going in Wallasey.

Their alternate to Mersey Banks is still a joke, but like Labour's it's better, not that that says much.

Their Tatton proposal is a clear attempt to keep Osbourne there. There's that random ward jutting out of it, barely connected.

I prefer the Tory's Riverside proposal over Labour's.

[Harry Hayfield]

Anthony Wells has just published his Scottish numbers and they match mine exactly (which if I may say so I am very pleased about indeed, partly because a) the Boundary Commission published how much of each seat was in the new seat and b) I couldn't remember which way round the calculations went. I think the Scottish Boundary Commission should be held up as an example to England, Wales and Northern Ireland as to how to produce boundary review data (and I am very tempted to ring up the Welsh Boundary Commission today and ask if they can release their data in January in a similar manner

[doktorb]

Maybe I should have posted these before, but these be the public meeting times and locations.


10 October
Ramada Hotel, Belfast

11 and 12 October
Britannia Hotel, Portland Street, Manchester, M1 3LA
Ramada Hotel, Belfast

13 and 14 October
Ramada Leeds North, Millgreen View, Ring Road, Leeds, LS14 5QF
Brook Mollington Babastre Hotel, Parkgate Road, Mollington, Cheshire, CH1 6NN

17 and 18 October
Town Hall, Pinstone Street, Sheffield, S1 2HH
Holiday Inn, 97 Cromwell Road, London, SW7 4DN
Civic Centre, Rickergate, Carlisle, Cumbria, CA3 8QC

19 October
Silverbirch Hotel, Omagh

20 and 21 October
Royal Berkshire Conference Centre, Madejski Stadium, Reading, Berkshire, RG2 0FK
The Golden Lion Hotel, 114 High Street, Northallerton, North Yorkshire, DL7 8PP
Brent Town Hall, Forty Lane, Wembley, Middlesex, HA9 9HD
Radisson Blu Hotel Liverpool, 107 Old Hall Street, Liverpool, L3 9BD
Silverbirch Hotel, Omagh

24 and 25 October
Macdonald Tickled Trout Hotel, Preston New Road, Samlesbury, Preston, Lancashire, PR5 0UJ
Milton Keynes Council, Civic Offices, 1 Saxon Gate East, Central Milton Keynes, MK9 3EJ
Lewisham Town Hall, Catford Road, Catford, London, SE6 4RU
Hull City Hall, Queen Victoria Square, Hull, HU1 3RQ
Tullyglass Hotel, Ballymena


27 and 28 October
Guildhall, Guildhall Square, Portsmouth, PO1 2AB
East Ham Town hall, Barking Road, London, E6 2RP
The Derby Conference Centre, London Road, Derby, DE24 8UX

31 October and 1 November
Northampton Guildhall, St Giles Square, Northampton, NN1 1DE
Town Hall, Wandsworth High Street, London, SW18 2PU
Town Hall, High Street, Colchester, CO1 1PJ
Crowne Plaza, London Gatwick Airport, Langley Drive, Crawley, West Sussex, RH11 7SX

3 and 4 November
City Hall, St Peters Street, Norwich, NR2 1NH
Ramada Maidstone, Ashford Road, Hollingbourne, Near Maidstone, Kent, ME17 1RE
Lincoln Hotel, Eastgate, Lincoln, LN2 1PN
Copthorne Hotel, Paradise Circus, Birmingham, B3 3HJ

7 and 8 November
Town Hall, George Street, Luton, LU1 2BQ
Ludlow Conference Centre, Lower Galdeford, Ludlow, Shropshire, SY8 1RZ
Holiday Inn Bristol City Centre, Bond Street, Bristol, BS1 3LE

10 and 11 November
Shire Hall, Warwick, CV34 4SA
Alverton Manor Hotel, Tregolls Road, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 1ZQ
BW Gonville Hotel, Gonville Place, Cambridge, CB1 1LY

14 and 15 November
County Buildings, Martin Street, Stafford, ST16 2LH
The Civic Centre, Barras Bridge, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 8QH
De Vere Royal Bath, Bath Road, Bournemouth, Dorset, BH1 2EW
Edinburgh City Chambers, High Street, EH1 1YJ

16 November
New Lanark World Heritage Site, ML11 9DB

17 and 18 November
The Guildhall, High Street, Exeter, EX4 3EB
St George Hotel, Durham Tess {sic} Valley Airport, Darlington, Co Durham, DL2 1RH

22 November
Teacher Building, St Enoch Square, Glasgow, G1 4DB


24 November
Town House, High Street, Inverness, IV1 1JJ

29 November
City Chambers, 14 City Square, Dundee, DD1 3BY

[afleitch]

Scottish notionals based on Andrew Wells figures.

[Peter the Lefty]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat. 

[You kip if you want to...]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat. 

True.

[MaxQue]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat. 

True.

But I suppose than they got lower votes in the added areas because they didn't campaigned there.
Notionals aren't appropriate for small parties.

[joevsimp]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat. 

True.

False, that notional figure was got by assuming the vote was uniform across the whole of each seat, which it wasn't and didn't account for the fact that it is removing the 3 weakest green wards from pavillion and replacing them with the three strongest green wards from hove, and strongest one from kemptown. So it would've been an absolute cakewalk

[Harry Hayfield]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat.

You are indeed quite correct.

Brighton, Pavillion and Hove
Lab 16,472 (31%)
Green 14,612 (28%)
Lib Dem 11,502 (22%)
Con 8,653 (16%)
UKIP 1,118 (2%)
Others 180 (0%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Scottish notionals based on Andrew Wells figures.

Ah, we appear to have a slight difference of opinion here. Wells is now saying Galloway is a marginal Con seat and I have as a Lab majority of 8,000. That's more than just statistical difference to which I wonder has one of us made a mistake and if so how?

[afleitch]

Ah, we appear to have a slight difference of opinion here. Wells is now saying Galloway is a marginal Con seat and I have as a Lab majority of 8,000. That's more than just statistical difference to which I wonder has one of us made a mistake and if so how?

Well's methodology is more suited.

For example if 25% of the electorate in Seat X moves to Seat Y, it should not be assumed that 25% of the Labour vote, Tory vote, Lib Dem vote etc moves with it because the 25% of the seat that moves may be a Labour solid town, or a rural Tory area

I outlined how I do notionals here

I'm doing my notionals differently (I won't be doing them all until the seats are finalised)

What I've done is used the patterns of party vote (rather than raw numbers) based on the 2007 local election results and worked out what % of the party vote in each seat was cast in each ward or part ward.

So for example, I added up the Labour vote in the 2007 locals in the wards/part wards together that make up the Dumfries and Galloway Westminster constituency. This is of course lower in locals than at a GE, however you can say for example that in Ward 1 (good ward for Labour takin in Stranraer) 13.5% of the total Labour vote in the whole seat was cast there (if that makes sense) For split wards I've used the Commissions percentages.

I worked out that while 42% of the Dumfries and Galloway seat has been moved to Dumfries, that equates to 57.9% of the Labour vote. For the Conservatives it's 38.1%

So the remaining vote in the Galloway rump would be some 10,083 Labour votes and 10,214 Conservative votes.

For the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock seat, 35% of the Labour vote is moved into Galloway and Carrick and 65.4% of the Conservative vote is moved in so that's 7,569 Labour votes and 7,668 Conservative votes.

So my notionals have Galloway 17,652 for Labour, 17,882 for the Conservatives. Conservative majority of 230

All maths of course but there you are

I got a smaller notional Tory majority than Wells as I was doing a rough calculation. To get it more exact you can look at 2007 polling district data just to see broadly where the party vote rests.

For example if you look at the 2007 local results for the wards that make up Galloway and Carrick we would have a Tory lead of about 6,500 over Labour (15900 v 9400). The Tories would have won the seat based on 2007 Holyrood and even 2011 Holyrood results comfortably. Westminster is of course a different matter.

Galloway has lost Dumfries and it's surrounding areas; these are the strongest Labour areas in Dumfries and Galloway Council and they are now in the new Dumfries seat. You are left with the rump of Galloway; remember the Tories won Galloway in 2001 prior to the boundary changes. The new seat takes in Maybole, Girvan, Carrick which are a mixed bag for both Labour and the Tories. However it takes in the best parts of Ayr for the Tories too.

The moment I saw it I had a gut feeling we notionally held it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More to the point, Russell Brown will run in whichever constituency Dumfries is in. He's one of those people who can produce large personal votes as if by magic, and a lot of Labour votes in Galloway in 2010 will be those.

[afleitch]

More to the point, Russell Brown will run in whichever constituency Dumfries is in. He's one of those people who can produce large personal votes as if by magic, and a lot of Labour votes in Galloway in 2010 will be those.

Same with Elaine Murray; must be something in the water...

What's curious is that love him or loathe him (and Tories are evenly split on that), David Mundell also has a large personal vote; his is now distributed into 3 seats and while he is likely to be parachuted into Galloway and Carrick, he could stand in Dumfriesshire and give it a fair go. John Lamont will try his hand again in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.

[YL]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat. 

From what I understand, she probably would have won Brighton Pavilion & Hove had it existed.  The notional figures will say otherwise (as Harry said, Anthony Wells has it with a Labour majority of 1860, with the Greens second) but boundaries affect voting behaviour (personal votes, and people voting for parties when they have a chance of winning but not otherwise) and I would think that in this case they would have enough of an effect to turn it Green.

(Aren't the proposed names "Brighton Pavilion and Hove" and "Brighton and Hove North" confusing?)

[joevsimp]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat. 

From what I understand, she probably would have won Brighton Pavilion & Hove had it existed.  The notional figures will say otherwise (as Harry said, Anthony Wells has it with a Labour majority of 1860, with the Greens second) but boundaries affect voting behaviour (personal votes, and people voting for parties when they have a chance of winning but not otherwise) and I would think that in this case they would have enough of an effect to turn it Green.

(Aren't the proposed names "Brighton Pavilion and Hove" and "Brighton and Hove North" confusing?)

theyve done loads like that, there's Oxford and Abingdon &Oxford North, Barking & Dagenham and Dagenham North that I can remember, but they'll probably end up renaming a lot of them

[doktorb]

I'll be at (and giving a speech from) the meeting at Preston tomorrow. If the Wi-fi is upto scratch, I'll tweet using the tag #bcommnw
 

[Harry Hayfield]

I read somewhere that had the new boundaries been used in the 2010 election, Caroline Lucas wouldn't have gotten her seat. 

From what I understand, she probably would have won Brighton Pavilion & Hove had it existed.  The notional figures will say otherwise (as Harry said, Anthony Wells has it with a Labour majority of 1860, with the Greens second) but boundaries affect voting behaviour (personal votes, and people voting for parties when they have a chance of winning but not otherwise) and I would think that in this case they would have enough of an effect to turn it Green.

(Aren't the proposed names "Brighton Pavilion and Hove" and "Brighton and Hove North" confusing?)

theyve done loads like that, there's Oxford and Abingdon &Oxford North, Barking & Dagenham and Dagenham North that I can remember, but they'll probably end up renaming a lot of them

It's even worse in Welsh wards. There are several wards in Wales that have the same names not only in the same council area but different council areas!

[doktorb]

Article on the Preston meeting.  I'm the fella in the picture AND the video at the end



http://blogpreston.co.uk/2011/10/ribble-valley-mp-brands-idea-to-move-fishwick-out-of-preston-as-a-glaring-anomaly/

[minionofmidas]

the tickled trout? Okay.

[doktorb]

the tickled trout? Okay.

Despite the name, it isn't too bad a hotel really. Good enough for the reasons why we were there.

[Harry Hayfield]

Using the data so far published (England and Scotland) and averaging the polls for October, the forecast House of Commons is as follows:

Labour 40% (+11%) winning 299 seats (+88 seats)
Conservatives 35% (-3%) winning 236 seats (-57 seats)
Scottish National Party 4% (+3%) winning 17 seats (+11 seats)
Northern Ireland 16 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 3% (+2%) winning 2 seats (+2 seats)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-14%) winning 0 seats (-44 seats)
Others 8% (+1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)

Wales is likely to see (on that sort of swing) one Conservative (Monmouth), no Liberal Democrats, three Plaid (Dwyfor, Ceredigion, Carmarthen) and the rest will be Labour giving a total of

Labour 323 seats Conservatives 237 seats SNP 17 seats NI 16 seats Plaid Cymru 3 seats Greens 2 seats Labour majority of 46

[joevsimp]

Still no news on the Welsh review? January is an absolute joke for that

without the review though, I still can't see Labour gaining both Powys seats

[Harry Hayfield]

Still no news on the Welsh review? January is an absolute joke for that without the review though, I still can't see Labour gaining both Powys seats

First Week in January is what we have been told (thanks to the mess about local government boundaries) the Lib Dem notionals are Ceredigion (and something) and Brecon and Radnorshire's replacement and based on the polls I can see Brecon going Con and Ceredigion being a Plaid win.

[doktorb]

I dread to think how the BCW are going to handle this. They've shown themselves to be...er...less than professional. Such a tight timetable is going to mess them up royally if they're not careful.

[Peter the Lefty]

The two Green wins are the new Brighton, Pavillion (gain from Lab) and Norwich South (gain from Lib Dem). That is a forecast based on the average polls in September 2011. To know the notional tallies (based on my estimates of Scotland and the Guardian's calculations) work backwards

Are there any other constituencies where the Greens might come in a close second or third?  If an election were held today, that is.