Let the great boundary rejig commence

[afleitch]

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Steady on That's not quite true unles you want boundaries cutting through peoples front room. They are looking at constituencies of around 80,000 or so. They may not even push for that other than to reduce Welsh contituencies in line with increased devolution.

[afleitch]

I'm having a look at Scotland

I've been playing around with the south which for one doesn't look too bad. The electorates don't create huge monstrosities.



So essentially;

East Lothian
Midlothian and Peebleshire
Berwick, Selkirk and Roxburgh
Dumfries and South Nithsdale
Galloway and South Ayrshire
Central Ayrshire
Kilmarnock

I'll revisit it all when I've finished.

[afleitch]

I plan on getting Scotland ironed out.

[afleitch]

Okay, rough South of Scotland and I have to say, the potential seats here make me less incensed than the current arrangment! Will change once I can work out what the legislation means I have a feeling it will be amended some what to establish a 'home nation' quota/


Borders/Mid Lothian/East Lothian - 3 seats

This works out rather well and is a bit of a 'blast from the past.' 1 seat can almost entirely be centred on East Lothian with the second centered on Midlothian and taking in Peeblesshire. The third contains the remainder of the Scottish Borders. Other than Berwickshire being detached from East lothian, this would be quite similar to how things were about fifty years ago.

Edinburgh/West Lothian - 6 seats (5.

Again, not too shabby. This combination means that Queensferry, Balerno, Cramond, Corstorphine etc to the west of Edinburgh get 'detached' to join 2 West Lothian centred seats, leaving 4 'city' seats. I don't think they will complain.

Dumfries and Galloway/South Ayrshire/East Ayrshire - 4 seats (3.9)

Not as horrid as it might look actually. The Kilmarnock seat would remain relatively similar, Ayr (detatched from Irvine) would be joined with much of the Kyle and some of the Ayrshire coast to form a second seat. Annandale can be combined with Nithsdale and Dumfries as well as well as some of the satellite communities to the west. The leaves the rump of Galloway to be combined with rural Ayrshire in a fourth seat. Need to work that one out on paper though, but it makes more sense than the current M74 monstrosity.

North Ayrshire/Inverclyde/Renfrewshire - 4 seats (3.

Interesting combination again. Paisley would be one seat (larger than the proposed Holyrood seat) taking in Renfrew. Greenock and Inverclyde can stretch along the Firth of Clyde towards Kilmalcolm/Erskine to form a second seat. The third seat is centred around Irvine and the surrounding area to the north (with or without Arran; depends if it takes in Troon and the ferry connection). The remainder of North Ayrshire and rural Renfrewshire makes the fourth seat.

Argyll and Bute/West Dumbartonshire/East Dumbartonshire plus Strathkelvin ward of North Lanarkshire- 3 seats.

Again, suprisingly simple. In order to being the arrangment up to quota it has to 'borrow' Strathkelvin ward (formerly Chyrston) from North Lanarkshire which was once part of Strathkelvin District Council. An Argyll seat leeches into West Dumbartonshire. The West Dumbarton seat nicks Milngavie (and probably a whack of Bearsden too) and East Dumbartonshire is made up of the remainder

Glasgow/East Renfrewshire/North Lanarkshire/South Lanarkshire - 12 or 13 seats

Yes, it's a big grouping taking in just under a million voters however it makes the most sense. East Renfrewshire will be up in arms (some of that council could go into the Renfrewshire grouping) being attached into a seat taking in much of Cathcart but well - haha. I'll need to look at this one more to get the potential seats right.

[afleitch]

Worth pointing out that rigidity to a quota produces seats similar to those originally proposed at the first Holyrood review where that Rule was taken to extremes (over that of community links, continuity etc). Indeed the Assistant Commissioner slammed the Commission for confering (on the need to have seats 'on quota') an importance that it did not have and that the legislation did not intend it to have.

Now of course, this legislation is being amended for Westminster reviews. I expect smug faces at the Boundary Comission for Scotland

[afleitch]

Got the figures for the North of Scotland

Highland/Moray 3.18 or 3- Just a tad over the quota, but geography makes other groupings different. If accepted this would give a Moray and Nairn, and a 'north' and 'south' Highland seat...but it all depends on the geography given the clause in the bill.

Aberdeen City 2.06 or 2 -  Extended Aberdeen North and Aberdeen South

Aberdeenshire/Angus/Dundee - 4.95 or 5 - Expanded Dundee West and Dundee East, rest of Angus with part of Mearns, two Aberdeenshire seats

Perth and Kinross/Fife - 5.23 or 5 seats - Quite tight here. Also breaking the Fife border has not been done yet.

Stirling/Clackmannan/Falkirk - 2.96 or 3 seats - Something like Clackmannan and East Stirling (taking in Stirling), Falkirk and a huge left over seat. Need to look at this one.

[afleitch]

Lords Amendment retains Isle of Wight as a single constituency.

[afleitch]

Boundary Commission for Scotland to 'make an annoucement' on March 4th concerning the start of the Westminster Review.

[afleitch]

A bigger than expected leap in Glasgow's electorate.

EDIT: Seems like nearly 10,000 voters have appeared in Glasgow Central. Hmmmm.

[afleitch]

Boundary Commission for Scotland confirms the inevitable;

"A national review of MPs’ constituencies gets underway today. New rules introduced
by the UK Government earlier this year, which result in a decrease in the number of
constituencies in Scotland from 59 to 52, make widespread change necessary.

The electoral quota for the review, which is the average electorate per constituency
across the UK, is 76,641.2, with the electorate of each constituency having to be
within 5% of that quota. As a result, the smallest permitted electorate is 72,810 and
the largest permitted electorate is 80,473."

[afleitch]

...except in the Islands, of course. Though Skye, Scilly and Anglesey are apparently not islands.

Curiously some organs of Scottish Government (in terms of funding formulae) wished to strip Skye of it's island status as it is now bridged.

[afleitch]

Okay. An brief attempt at South Scotland

---

East Lothian 74,320 (East Lothian Council)

Midlothian and Tweeddale 77,563 (Midlothian Council. Tweeddale West and Tweeddale East wards of Scottish Borders Council)

Selkirk, Roxburgh and Berwick 73,395 (Scottish Borders Council less part lying within Midlothian and Tweedale)

Dumfriesshire and Annandale 78,918 (Dumfries and Galloway Council less Wards 1-5)

Ayrshire South and Galloway 78,488 (Dumfries and Galloway Wards 1-5 and South Ayrshire Wards 7,8 and East Ayrshire Wards 8, 9)

Ayrshire Central 78,187 (South Ayrshire Council Wards 1-6 and part of North Ayrshire Ward 1)

East Ayrshire 75,001 (East Ayrshire Council less Wards 8,9)

----

This arrangement is not intended to maximise Tory chances. However it happens to work out that way

In short East Lothian is left on it's own. Midlothian extends down into Tweedale and the rump of the Scottish Borders remains a seperate seat.

The Dumfriesshire seat created for Holyrood is extended with the addition of two wards to the west of the town (which helps Labour) The remainder of Galloway is joined with Ayrshire taking in Girvan, Cumnock and Doon Valley. East Ayrshire remains broadly similar to how it currently is. The remainder of South Ayrshire is grouped with a part of Irvine creating a compact seat not too dissimilar to the 1983-1997 Ayr seat.

[afleitch]

Might this end up a lot like the last Scottish boundary review? Allchange original proposals, going back to as close as possible to the last map - and to the legislation's tolerance limits - in the end?

I think that might be the case if there is enough pressure; certainly I think the urban seats will end up being undersized in relation to the rural seats at any rate. Worth noting that the drastic 5th Review in 2002 in Scotland resulted in very little change so they could end up sticking to their guns.

It's the variation limits that still sticks with me as that should always be at the discretion of the Commission. Without them the seats would be okay and some counties would go back to 70's/80's configurations.

[afleitch]

It is pretty much confirmed that the public release will be at midnight on the BCE website. I suspect they wanted to wait until late morning but that has been scuppered by the leaks and rumours

(about which something interesting might come because the Boundary Commission did warn Party Reps that too many rumours and leaks could mean they're not so friendly towards helping them out again....)

I have a feeling it might crash

So big question....who wants to do the notionals?

[afleitch]

Let's have a very quick competition. In which preserved county (or whatever) will the worst horror be drawn? I might post the winner a stupid postcard or something.

I'm going with Staffordshire.

[afleitch]

Scottish Commission have published electorate by postcode unit

http://www.bcomm-scotland.gov.uk/6th_westminster/electoratedata/

[afleitch]

Maps too?

[afleitch]

They didn't cross the Mersey though... but they called the South Wirral-and-into-Cheshire seat "Mersey Banks".

Sounds like an ITV drama.

[afleitch]

Wales is going to be fun isn't it

[afleitch]

Need to start working out if we'll get some more lovely blue seats.

[afleitch]

It's the refusal to split wards that I cannot get my head around. Given what was published in the Scottish site, the Commission here looks as if it is ready to split wards in more than just the 1:7000 ratio STV wards in the cities.

I think they may get knuckle wrapped from the Commissioners here; it's paying too much attention to one of the Rules as opposed to the others.

[afleitch]

For blankness, go to Neighbourhood Statistics (just google it). Then Map Viewer. Then remember how to screenshot.

I'll get round to updating 'The Map' at some point.

[afleitch]

For blankness, go to Neighbourhood Statistics (just google it). Then Map Viewer. Then remember how to screenshot.

I'll get round to updating 'The Map' at some point.

You should probably include a warning for our eyes or something. Some of these constituencies are quite, quite special.

If it helps that's how 2002 felt to me. To such an extent it made me detached. I only care about the Holyrood arragement and don't particularly care what happens up here next month. You'll probably feel the same with Wales when that monstrosity is unveiled :/

[afleitch]

If it helps that's how 2002 felt to me. To such an extent it made me detached. I only care about the Holyrood arragement and don't particularly care what happens up here next month. You'll probably feel the same with Wales when that monstrosity is unveiled :/

I'm really dreading what they draw for my part of the world, put it that way... can we rule out the horrible possibility of Anglesey being split?

How dare Anglesey be an island! F-cking glaciers. I can't see the island being split luckily Just hive a bit of the mainland onto it. I'm looking forward to the Clwyd coast; might get all the oldies in one place.

EDIT; I wonder if they did split Anglesey, the boundary would go right down the middle of the bridge.

[afleitch]

WTF is that? Did someone spill their coffee?