Canada 2011 Predictions... if you dare

[Vasall des Midas]

That depends on the area largely. The Democrats won lots of seats in 2008 for example that they could've never won without Obama's strong organization.

Nowhere near as large a wave.

[Sibboleth]

In Canada a good ground game isn't important in some ridings but I'm sure that if the NDP had a better machine in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Toronto Centre (maybe?), or other ridings with significant dense housing filled with minorities they would have done much better in the GTA.

The trouble with Toronto Centre is that it includes Rosedale. And, if we're being honest, that the Liberal candidate was Bob Rae. He fits the seat. *shrugs*

[The Vorlon]

Nanos' Sunday-only sample wasn't too far off:

Conservatives 38.7% (-0.9 from actual result)
NDP 30.5% (-0.1)
Liberals 20.9% (+2.0)
Bloc 5.0% (-1.0)
Greens 3.7% (-0.2)
Other 1.3% (+0.3)

Yes, NANOS was pretty darn close actually, he was included in the group of polls that was neither IVR nor Internet based

A lead of 8% at 38.7% was indeed dangling on the edge of a majority, and the late blip in Ontario split the vote enough to get Harper over the top.

My big gripe with the polls, in addition to  underestimating the Tories by 5% (hasn't anybody heard of a "likely voter poll" up there?) - It the extensive reporting of regional subsamples... Christ,  NANOS was sampling 100 people a day in Atlantic Canada.....  his numbers bounced around like a yo-yo because, well, he was sampling a 100 people a day....  There were no "trends".. just a lot of noise...

[Sibboleth]

I wonder whether it wasn't a late swing, so much as there all along but that the polling companies failed to pick it up? Look at quite how badly the Liberals did in those affluent suburbs that became their Quebec-substitute during the reign of Johnny Christian. And it's been obvious for ages that they're fycked forever in basically all of South Western Ontario; what's the point of voting Liberal in such places when there's a viable labour party to vote for?

[Vasall des Midas]

There is such a thing as voters making up their mind to desert one party for another during an election campaign, rather than at some point in between two elections, for the simple reason that that's the one time they actually need to think about it.

[Californian Tony]

By a quick browsing on the predictions, it seems that most people underestimated NDP results in Québec by 10-15, and at the same time overestimated them by 10-15 outside. Funnily enough, the overall prediction is still pretty correct (for the NDP only though ).

[Sibboleth]

EPP did not do so well in Toronto...



...or Quebec...

[Holmes]

EPP has no balls when it comes to predictions, and seems to heavily favor incumbents unless they're totally done. Canadian elections have large and random swings, so ballsy predictions end up not being so crazy when the results come in.

Hopefully the weird meme that ground game is important in a giant wave election dies now. Giant wave elections are the type where one's organizational strength is least important.

I'm sure the NDP could've done better in Toronto and the GTA had they had a great ground game there (as I'm sure the Conservatives did, as they were banking on that area). But since I'm not in the area for the summer, I can't say that with total confidence... still, a lot of very close matches in that area, where the NDP came in second, or close three-way races.