Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[Frodo]

Hope I'm not so early that this thread gets locked too...  

Anyway, how is the Scottish National Party looking for the upcoming elections next year?  They have a bare plurality now from the 2007 elections -will they be able to expand upon it and actually get a majority this time around?

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Given that Labour is in opposition now, they'll certainly gain quite a lot and take control.

[Jbrase]

Any chance the SNP improves there numbers enough to keep control? They didn't pick up any seats in Westminster this year but the seats they held they improved their margins in.

[Verily]

Any chance the SNP improves there numbers enough to keep control? They didn't pick up any seats in Westminster this year but the seats they held they improved their margins in.

No. The SNP is completely maxed out at Holyrood (not for all time, but certainly for current circumstances). I'm calling it now: Barring a major Labour scandal, the SNP will lose at least 15 seats in 2011.

[afleitch]

I disagree. The SNP are in an extremely advantageous position now that there is a Conservative government. Bear in mind that we are 3 years in to their minority government and they are still polling strongly in Holyrood voting intention even as their support slumped in Westminster voting intention in the weeks leading up to the General Election. There are two different games to be played by the Scottish electorate. While no one should rely on anecdotal evidence people I understand to be big SNP supporters without hesitation backed Labour at Westminster. Even I voted Tory though I'm backing the SNP in a similar constituency vote next year.

The 'crises' that have rocked the SNP only register in the media; they don't register in public. Indeed even the most ardent SNP supporters would suggest Salmond is a bit to pleased with himself, but he is still the preferred choice for First Minister by far in the polls. Iain Gray is unknown. There is nothing to suggest that when he does become known he will be liked. My side have their own secret weapon in Annabel Goldie (the second favourite choice for FM in the last opinion poll )

If the Lib Dems take a hit because of the coalition, it would be ludicrous to suggest that North East Fife or Orkney will become prime Labour targets. The Lib Dems opposition in most of their seats are either the Tories or the SNP. Most of the rural core of SNP seats are also seats that Labour do not perform strongly in. I don't expect or anticipate that the SNP will loose Kilmarnock, or be under pressure even in Cunninghame North.

Scotland's love affair with Labour is strictly a Westminster affair.

[Sibboleth]

Scotland's love affair with Labour is strictly a Westminster affair.

For now. Things might be quite different by next year, though it's far too early to be sure of anything IMO.

[Harry Hayfield]

Don't forget there are boundary changes in Scotland. I have some figures that were e-mailed to me from someone who did the calculations (not offical ones, mind) and they came out as thus:

Scottish National Party 23 constituencies + 23 regionals = 46 MSP's
Scottish Labour Party 34 constituencies + 10 regionals = 44 MSP's
Scottish Conservative and Unionists 5 constituencies + 14 regionals = 19 MSP's
Scottish Liberal Democrats 11 constituencies + 6 regionals = 17 MSP's
Scottish Green Party 0 constituencies + 2 regionals = 2 MSP's
Independent (Margo McDonald) 0 constituencies + 1 regional = 1 MSP

[Vasall des Midas]

I fully expect Labour to gain seats.
But I wouldn't be so sure on the SNP losing many.

[afleitch]

I fully expect Labour to gain seats.
But I wouldn't be so sure on the SNP losing many.

The SNP are most likely to loose a few constituency seats to Labour...but be compensated back again in the list. With the other parties the Tories are sheltered in their constituencies. In Ayr, Edinburgh Pentlands and Galloway they have built large personal votes. Notionally they gain Eastwood and despite Murphy's triumph last week as it's lost Barrhead and Neilston I don't see it flipping back easily. The Lib Dems are also protected in most of their seats as the main challenger is either the SNP or the Tories (Edinburgh politics is funny...and is incredidbly local so I have no idea what happens there twelve months down the line)

It's easily possible for Labour to be the largest party, but holding power is another matter. If relations between the Lib Dems and Labour break down, then they've lost their viable coalition partners. The SNP are only holding on as a minority party because of the tactical abstention of their non-Labour opponents at Holyrood. Likewise I doubt that the Tories could come to the same arrangement with Labour as they currently have with the SNP. If Labour are say a half dozen seats ahead of the SNP and can't form a coalition, they may struggle to form a secure minority administration in 1. Winning the FM vote and 2. Passing a budget. If the SNP could make an arrangement with the Tories they could form another minority government. At least for a short while.

If a year down the line we have a growing economy and a sense of 'things are getting better', Labour may not have much of a chance at gaining power at all.

[Vasall des Midas]

Most of the Tory seats are list seats.
Oh, and an LD seat where the SNP are the main challengers is an at-risk seat.

(Most of the rest is quite accurate, of course. And I wasn't thinking along the lines of *massive* Labour gains and a majority.)

One more thing to ponder though... why did the SNP do badly in Westminster? Perceived friendlyness with the London Tories anything to do with that? You figure?
Well, I do. I certainly do. (Worth noting they still gained votes pretty much wherever there wasn't a new tactical reason to vote for somebody else, btw. Just not very much.)

[afleitch]

Most of the Tory seats are list seats.
Oh, and an LD seat where the SNP are the main challengers is an at-risk seat.

(Most of the rest is quite accurate, of course. And I wasn't thinking along the lines of *massive* Labour gains and a majority.)

One more thing to ponder though... why did the SNP do badly in Westminster? Perceived friendlyness with the London Tories anything to do with that? You figure?
Well, I do. I certainly do. (Worth noting they still gained votes pretty much wherever there wasn't a new tactical reason to vote for somebody else, btw. Just not very much.)

The public generally don't know about their relationship with the Tories at Holyrood; it's only those who are interested in this sort of thing that do The SNP started their steady decline (and Labour their rise) in the polls when the GE kicked off. Likewise the Lib Dems started off on par or lower than the Tories (14% with Populus at the start of the campaign) ) and built up in the second half of the campaign. Interestingly this didn't happen in Holyrood polls where the last poll put the SNP and Labour neck and neck. Scotland swung against the Tories at Westminster because that's what the election was about - Westminster.

[afleitch]

[dialectical fetishist]

Fingers crossed the SNP lose some. I personally think they will. Anti-incumbency is a great aid.

[Harry Hayfield]

Conservative Battleground
1   Dumfriesshire
2   Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
3   Stirling
4   Edinburgh Southern
5   Edinburgh Central
6   Cunninghame North
7   Angus North and Mearns
8   Argyllshire and Bute
9   East Lothian
10   Renfrewshire North and West
11   Fife North East
12   Aberdeen South and Kincardine North
13   Aberdeen Central
14   Strathkelvin and Bearsden
15   Aberdeenshire West
16   Midlothian South, Tweedale and Lauderdale
17   Edinburgh Western
18   Clydesdale
19   Perthshire North

[Vasall des Midas]

Most of the Tory seats are list seats.
Oh, and an LD seat where the SNP are the main challengers is an at-risk seat.

(Most of the rest is quite accurate, of course. And I wasn't thinking along the lines of *massive* Labour gains and a majority.)

One more thing to ponder though... why did the SNP do badly in Westminster? Perceived friendlyness with the London Tories anything to do with that? You figure?
Well, I do. I certainly do. (Worth noting they still gained votes pretty much wherever there wasn't a new tactical reason to vote for somebody else, btw. Just not very much.)

The public generally don't know about their relationship with the Tories at Holyrood;

Yeah, I said "the London Tories". Of course it's all interconnected, but I was thinking more of the SNP giving off the vibe of not minding a Tory government at Westminster.

[Vasall des Midas]

Oh, and obviously other reasons why Labour underperform at Holyrood are turnout, turnout, turnout; and the sorry and westminsterdependent state of Scottish Labour leadership since the death of Donald Dewar. Whether that latter factor can be turned around will probably be decisive in the next Scottish elections.

[redcommander]

Hopefully SNP loses and Tories pick up some seats.

[Jbrase]

Hopefully SNP Labour loses and Tories The SNP pick up some seats.

fixed

[JoeBrayson]

This sounds obvious but the reason why Labour held their seats in the General Election was because Brown was Scottish and Labour benefited from a mini 'Brown Bounce'. Now Brown has resigned and is most likely to be replaced by an English leader, Labour could well lose seats due to the lack of Scottish leadership and the perception that the Labour Party is 'ran by London'.

[JoeBrayson]

Here are my Predictions:-

Lab (GAIN) from LibDem
Dunfermiline
Edinburgh Central
Edinburgh Southern

Lab (GAIN) from SNP
Aberdeen Donside
Almond Valley
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane
Cunninghame North
Dundee West
Edinburgh Eastern
Falkirk West
Glasgow Southside
Mid Fife & Glenrothes
Stirling

Too Close to Call
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine
Argyll & Bute
Banffshire & Buchan Coast
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross
Dundee East
Eastwood
Edinburgh West
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire
Glasgow Shettleston
Inverness & Nairn
Midlothian South, Tweedale & Lauderdale
Na-H-Eileen An-Iar

Lab = 47
SNP = 6
Con = 3
LD = 5
Too Close To Call = 12

[doktorb]

The new boundaries certainly throw up some interesting contests.

[afleitch]

A little off topic but.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSLN4xGNilI&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fuser%2Fbaronsarwarofgovan%23p%2Fu%2F27%2FgSLN4xGNilI&feature=player_profilepage#!

Great documentary (lots of archive footage) on the 70's political scene in Scotland with devolution and the Govan work in etc

[You kip if you want to...]

There is a new TNS-BMRB poll in the Herald. Voting intentions in the Scottish parliament (with changes from TNS’s poll in June) are:

Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-3), LAB 46%(+1), LDEM 11%(nc), SNP 32%(+3)
Holyrood regional: CON 11%(-1), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), SNP 30%(+2)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2772

My guess is that a Lab minority is coming to Scotland. Would they really coalition with the Liberals while attacking the Westminister Liberals for doing just that with the Tories?

[DL]

My guess is that a Lab minority is coming to Scotland. Would they really coalition with the Liberals while attacking the Westminister Liberals for doing just that with the Tories?

Why not? Labour has no objection to the idea of parties forming coalitions with one another - they just object the policies that the LibDems are accessories to at the national level in this Con-Dem government. I assume that after the next British election, if the numbers add up - Labour would be more than happy to form a coalition with the LibDems - it would be just like the SPD in Germany taking power in 1969 as a result of the FDP switching coalition partners - what's not to like?

[Sibboleth]

TNS-BMRB used to be TNS-System Three, did they not? If so... um... hmm...

Not that I doubt that we're polling well in Scotland or anything, but I wouldn't pay much attention to those figures except for that...