Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)
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Author Topic: Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)  (Read 46813 times)
afleitch
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« Reply #25 on: August 10, 2010, 08:58:04 AM »

TNS-BMRB used to be TNS-System Three, did they not? If so... um... hmm...

Not that I doubt that we're polling well in Scotland or anything, but I wouldn't pay much attention to those figures except for that...

Yes, probably best to disregard TNS for exactly those reasons :/

IIRC the Tories demise have been prophecised based on Holyrood pollings since 1999. Some polls in 2007 were giving us 10%. We got just under 17%. Same with the Lib Dems. So predicting their 'demise' post Coalition is even more difficult.

I have no doubt that Labour are ahead however there is a difference between Holyrood and Westminster voting habits. And popularity aside simply being in government will help the SNP in May. Also for the first time many SNP seats in particular have an incumbent and in some cases a popular one at that (Kenny Macaskill for example)

I don't at this stage expect a huge change in the constituency seats; at present I only have Labour to pick up Dunfermline, Stirling and Edinburgh Central and the SNP to pick up Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch.

There are two seats that cannot be predicted at all (until we know who is standing) and those are Glasgow Kelvin and Strathkelvin. Labour are favourites in both, however Strathkelvin would probably have been an SNP gain in 2007 without Jean Turner standing. Kelvin is of course a student politics free for all.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: August 10, 2010, 09:14:47 AM »

Have redistributed results for the new constituencies been published yet?
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afleitch
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« Reply #27 on: August 10, 2010, 11:12:21 AM »

Have redistributed results for the new constituencies been published yet?

Not 'officially' though I have a feeling Harry may have them!

I only know the % leads and the notionals as a result ( Labour down 3 seats as 1 abolished, Tories pick up Eastwood and the Lib Dems pick up Edinburgh Central)

The data is there; speaking of which I was sent 'rough' estimates for who would have won what under the '83-'92 boundaries.

Summarised it's SNP winning Aberdeen North (most of which is now in Central), Labour winning Clackmannan, SNP winning Linlithgow (due to it's protrusion towards Queensferry), Labour winning Edinburgh East, SNP winning Monklands East, SNP winning Strathkelvin (not sure about that one) and Bella being within a hair of taking West Renfrewshire (if she was on the ballot in the areas in Inverclyde that the seat once covered she probably would have pipped it). Hillhead would also have been close.

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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #28 on: August 11, 2010, 06:27:22 PM »

Have redistributed results for the new constituencies been published yet?
Not 'officially' though I have a feeling Harry may have them!

I have an UNOFFICAL set of notionals that say:
Scottish National Party: 23 constituencies + 23 regionals = 46 MSP's
Scottish Labour: 34 constituencies + 10 regionals = 44 MSP's
Scottish Conservatives and Unionists: 5 constituencies + 14 regionals = 19 MSP's
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 11 constituencies + 6 regionals = 17 MSP's
Scottish Greens: 2 regionals = 2 MSP's
Independents: 1 regional = 1 MSP

HOWEVER these will be superceded when Professor Denver's notional figures are published. I rang him up in July to ask how they were progressing and he told me that that the following week he would deliver them to the BBC in Glasgow, so therefore it is now in the BBC's hands (and by association the Press Association as well), so all we can do is wait until they update their election studio graphics with the new maps and calculations (although personally speaking, if they have not published them by the end of the SNP conference, I shall contact them and ask if there is a reason why they are sitting on them)
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #29 on: August 11, 2010, 06:32:11 PM »

Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-3), LAB 46%(+1), LDEM 11%(nc), SNP 32%(+3)
Holyrood regional: CON 11%(-1), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), SNP 30%(+2)
[/quote]

Based on the old House:

Scottish Labour Party: 53 constituencies + 10 regionals = 63 MSP's
Scottish National Party: 11 constituencies + 34 regionals = 45 MSP's
Liberal Democrats: 8 constituencies + 4 regionals = 12 MSP's
Scottish Conservatives and Unionists: 1 constituency + 8 regionals = 9 MSP's
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afleitch
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« Reply #30 on: August 11, 2010, 06:38:08 PM »

Thank's Harry; tallies with what I have

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JoeBrayson
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« Reply #31 on: August 15, 2010, 12:53:09 PM »

I wonder if anybody has done any 'notionals' based on the Westminster general election results back in May.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2010, 09:59:14 AM »

A safe seat has just opened up; Jack (now Lord) McConnell is to retire.
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afleitch
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« Reply #33 on: September 09, 2010, 03:33:32 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2010, 03:41:42 AM by afleitch »

David Denver has released notionals

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08_09_10_boundaryreport.pdf

However the BBC article is intersting;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11229792

However, the academic stressed that caution must be taken in interpreting the results. He pointed out that constituencies were now built from much larger, more diverse council wards, making it very difficult to offer projections.

And the notionals themselves? Not what we expected.

EDIT: He appears to have done them 'old school' rather than using available batch number date. However I have a feeling these will be seen as the 'official' notionals.

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doktorb
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« Reply #34 on: September 09, 2010, 04:22:19 AM »

Almond Valley has a notional majority of just four votes! Why not just go for a tie and be done with it?

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afleitch
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« Reply #35 on: September 10, 2010, 12:18:07 PM »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #36 on: September 10, 2010, 12:23:14 PM »

Some of those look to be radically different from the first set. By old school do you mean he used local government figures?
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afleitch
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« Reply #37 on: September 10, 2010, 12:54:55 PM »

Some of those look to be radically different from the first set. By old school do you mean he used local government figures?

Yes; he takes time to explain how difficult it is to use them etc. What bugs me is that he is an expert in these things, if he's not used the Scottish Office's batch figures i'm concerned. As the BBC commissioned him, these will be seen as the official figures by the media.


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afleitch
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« Reply #38 on: November 08, 2010, 04:59:50 AM »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11708001

George Galloway may stand in Glasgow list...

...which means a split hard left vote again and no MSP's elected Smiley
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afleitch
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« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2010, 07:28:45 PM »

Predictor now updated to take into account new boundaries. While the maps still shows the old seats once you input new figures (or simply click 'predict' as it is) it will display the new map and seat totals.

http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2010, 10:32:08 PM »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11708001

George Galloway may stand in Glasgow list...

...which means a split hard left vote again and no MSP's elected Smiley

What has "hard left" got to do with George Galloway?

Wink
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afleitch
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« Reply #41 on: December 03, 2010, 12:02:28 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2010, 12:08:24 PM by afleitch »

This is my current assessment of seats as they currently stand (not necessarily the position in 2007) I have not profiled 'safe' seats

Seats to Watch - Part I


Aberdeen Central - Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum LAB

Labour by a 'baw hair' in 2007, the Denver notionals has this as an SNP seat. However some 22% of this seat is from Aberdeen South and a fairly genteel part of the city too. As a result Denver has the seat as a three way marginal with the Lib Dems in contention; bear in mind that voters here still flirt with the Tories in council elections. There is a strong likelyhood that these voters, bearing in mind similar patterns elsewhere in urban politics in Scotland would have voted SNP in 2007. So Denver's assessment is probably correct. This makes the 2011 result difficult to predict. There will be a stronger swing to Labour in the northern part of this seat however I'm not confident enough to put this seat down as 'Lean Labour' just yet.


Aberdeen South and North Kincardine- Toss-up LIB/SNP - Momentum SNP

One to watch. This is a potential SNP pick up as the result of a Lib Dem bloodbath. Nicol Stephen, then party leader got a scare here in 2007. He is standing down ending a nearly two decade long association with Aberdeenshire politics. The new seat extends further south taking in the coastal towns along the A92 from Portlethen to Muchalls.


Aberdeenshire West - Lean LIB


This seat is the lanlocked rural rump of Aberdeenshire. The Lib Dem vote here is about 40% with the SNP on under 30% and the Tories on just under 25%. This is also a potential SNP gain from a Lib Dem downturn; the Tories too have a slim chance here but the Lib Dems are in the strongest position to retain this seat exploiting links they have been able to forge over the past 15 years.

Airdrie and Shotts - Lean LAB

Yeah. It 'leans'; in reality it's probably Safe Labour, but sectarian politics will always simmer below the surface here so I can't nudge it over to the safe column, not at least until the start of the campaign

Almond Valley - Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum LAB   

It's Livingston. It's marginal. It was one of only 2 hits out of 5 in the SNP's 'New Town strategy.' It's got a large, growing and young electorate with the fastest population growth in Scotland. It also has a good local MSP. However while Livingston proper may come through for the SNP, it's villages like Whitburn that the SNP need to be watch. Luckily for the SNP the longest new passenger railway line with stations built in Britain for nearly 100 years is just about to open linking Livingston (and Edinburgh) with Airdie (and Glasgow). However the national swing is probably enough to cancel out any net benefit here.

Argyll and Bute - Lean SNP

If the Lib Dem vote doesn't recover in the polls I may move this over to the Safe column...   

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross - Lean LIB   

The MSP's of both Lib Dem Highland seats will stand down next year. In this vastly redrawn seat the Lib Dems hold a majority of less than 9% with the SNP second and the other parties distantly behind. It is more vulnerable thatn you may think. It will be curious to see what the remnants of Maclennans old personal vote (yes...some still remains) will do.

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane- Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum SNP

Probably a better seat for the SNP to defend than Stirling. The seat takes in Dunblane and the Bridge of Allan and it's Tory vote. Local council politics affects what happens in Clackmannanshire proper over which the parties have little control and tactical voting in Dunblane (and there are enough Labour voters there too to make a difference) will decide who wins this seat.

Cunninghame North   - Lean SNP

Not a toss-up; the SNP would have walked this ultra marginal seat had a former SNP independent not stood in 2007. It's boundaries do not change. Provided the SNP get a clear run, this should become a good seat for them.

Dumfriesshire - Toss-up LAB/CON - Momentum LAB

Extremely popular local Labour MSP Elaine Murray, however it cannot be denied that she's lost a sizeable chunk of her vote here which will be lost in the Tory/SNP battleground seat next door. Then again her vote does nothing but climb. The Tories would have won this seat had it existed in 2003 but Labour would have won it in 2007. I think she'll be fine.

Dundee City East - Lean SNP   

Dundee is Labour at Westminster and SNP at Holyrood. However the notional SNP majority here is suprisingly strong; about 8%.

Dunfermline   - Lean Labour (LAB GAIN)

So yeah...

Eastwood - Lean CON

YOU CANNOT CREATE A SAFER TORY SEAT IN WEST CENTRAL SCOTLAND. YOU CAN'T. IT HAS AN ARSING NOTIONAL MAJORITY OF ABOUT 10 F#CKING PERCENT. IF THEY F#CK IT UP I SWEAR...

Edinburgh Central   - Lean LAB (LAB GAIN)

Students. Students. English Students. This is Labour held, but notionally Lib Dem. That will soon become a curious political footnote.

Edinburgh Eastern   - Toss-up - Momentum SNP

It's Kenny's seat. He's in serious trouble however as he's lost Musselburgh. He has gained favourable areas arcing through the estates to the south however this is where wild unexpected LAB-SNP swings took place in 2007. I fear they may correct themselves. I'm giving it to Kenny at the moment based on anectodal evidence (which I know I shouldn't) from people I know who live there; he's a popular MSP.

Edinburgh Southern - Lean LIB

I have no idea about this seat. I genuinely don't. It's a very neat and compact seat taking in pre post war expansion Edinburgh and as such it shifts more strongly in the direction of the Lib Dems. It has also lost much of the Edinburgh University student sprawl to Central which under the current climate is a very good thing. However can they hold it on current voting trends? This seat is the most 'middle class' in Edinburgh, even more so than the new Pentlands. Despite it being a battle between the Lib Dems and Labout, potentially all four parties have a shot here.

In Part 2 (of 2 Smiley )

Edinburgh Western
Falkirk West    
Glasgow Cathcart
Glasgow Kelvin
Glasgow Southside
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
Linlithgow
Mid Fife and Glenrothes
Midlothian North and Musselburgh    
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale    
North East Fife
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch   
Stirling
Strathkelvin and Bearsden

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #42 on: December 11, 2010, 07:48:10 PM »

Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson has resigned because of the snow.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #43 on: December 12, 2010, 04:56:33 AM »

Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson has resigned because of the snow.
Wut?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #44 on: December 12, 2010, 11:45:22 AM »


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11978544
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doktorb
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« Reply #45 on: December 27, 2010, 12:50:54 AM »

Will Part 2 be next year ? Wink
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #46 on: January 17, 2011, 12:58:13 PM »

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2987

Labour majority.
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afleitch
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« Reply #47 on: January 17, 2011, 01:05:36 PM »


Joke poll.
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redcommander
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« Reply #48 on: January 17, 2011, 06:05:30 PM »

So I take it the Tories aren't going to have a breakthrough in Scotland this year. Tongue
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afleitch
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« Reply #49 on: January 17, 2011, 06:27:54 PM »

So I take it the Tories aren't going to have a breakthrough in Scotland this year. Tongue

Given that they have 5 or 6 seats notionally if they can hold them they are doing well. In the Central Belt and the South of Scotland that's on par with how they performed in 1992. The only difference is that they have been replaced by the SNP in the north.
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