Welsh Assembly Elections 2011

[Harry Hayfield]

Seeing as someone has posted about Scotland, let's not forget the Welsh!

Constituency Results
Welsh Labour Party 314,925 votes (32.19%) winning 24 constituencies
Plaid Cymru 219,121 (22.40%) winning 7 constituencies
Welsh Conservatives 218,730 (22.36%) winning 5 constituencies
Welsh Liberal Democrats 144,450 (14.76%) winning 3 constituencies
Independent 57,591 (5.88%) winning 1 constituency
United Kingdom Independence Party 18,047 (1.84%)
Neath and Port Talbot Ratepayers Party 2,561 (0.26%)
English Democrats 1,867 (0.19%)
New Millennium Bean Party 840 (0.08%)

Regional Results
Welsh Labour Party 288,954 (29.63%) winning 2 regionals
Welsh Conservatives 209,153 (21.45%) winning 7 regionals
Plaid Cymru 204,757 (21.00%) winning 8 regionals
Welsh Liberal Democrats 114,500 (11.74%) winning 3 regionals
British National Party 42,197 (4.32%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 38,490 (3.94%)
Welsh Green Party 33,803 (3.46%)
Socialist Labour Party 12,209 (1.25%)
Independents 9,350 (0.95%)
Welsh Christian Party 8,963 ( 0.91%)
Communist Party of Great Britain 3,708 (0.38%)
Christian People's Alliance 2,694 (0.27%)
Socialist Alternative 1,865 (0.19%)
Respect 1,792 (0.18%)
English Democrats 1,655 (0.16%)
Veritas 502 (0.05%)
Socialist Enviromental Party 292 (0.02%)

Total Composition of Assembly
Welsh Labour 26 AM's
Plaid Cymru 15 AM's
Welsh Conservatives 12 AM's
Welsh Liberal Democrats 6 AM's
Independent 1 AM

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Results (ranked by % majority)
Lord Elis Thomas (Plaid, Dwyfor Meirionnydd) 40.09%
Janice Gregory (Lab, Ognore) 34.70%
Brian Gibbons (Lab, Aberavon) 32.01%
Jenny Randerson (Lib Dem, Cardiff Central) 29.31% standing down
Rhodri Glyn Thomas (Plaid, Carmarthen East) 28.94%
Christine Chapman (Lab, Cynon Valley) 28.81%
Nick Ramsay (Con, Monmouth) 28.65%
Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda) 28.11%
Alun Ffred Jones (Plaid, Arfon) 25.64%
Val Lloyd (Lab, Swansea East) 23.95%
Lynne Neagle (Lab, Torfaen) 23.24%
Trish Law (Ind, Blaenau Gwent) 22.78%
Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil) 21.82%
Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon) 18.62%
Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid, Ynys Môn) 16.38%
Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn and Deeside) 15.94%
Jonathan Morgan (Con, Cardiff North) 14.37%
Jane Davidson (Lab, Pontypridd) 14.22%
Helen Mary Jones (Plaid, Llanelli) 14.07%
Rhodri Morgan (Lab, Cardiff West) 13.75%
Elin Jones (Plaid, Ceredigion) 13.14%
Paul Davies (Con, Preseli Pembrokeshire) 11.16%
Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend) 10.41%
Lorriane Barrett (Lab, Cardiff South) 10.30%
Technical Definition of marginal (10% majority or less)
Irene James (Lab, Islwyn) 9.41%
Mick Bates (Lib Dem, Montgomeryshire) 8.87% standing down
Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly) 8.76%
Gareth Jones (Plaid, Aberconwy) 8.18%
Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath) 7.71%
Andrew Davies (Lab, Swansea West) 6.60%
Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) 6.39%
Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) 6.09%
Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) 5.92%
Karen Sinclair (Lab, Clwyd South) 5.74%
John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) 4.40%
Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) 4.33%
Sandy Mewies (Lab, Delyn) 2.36%
Ann Jones (Lab, Vale of Clwyd) 0.41%
Angela Burns (Con, Carmarthen West) 0.34%
Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) 0.25%

[Harry Hayfield]

Regional List Allocations
North Wales
Labour 51,831 votes / (5 + 1)
Plaid Cymru 50,558 votes / (3 + 1)
Conservatives 50,266 votes / (1 + 1)
Liberal Democrats 15,275 votes / (0 + 1)
British National Party 9,986 votes / (0 + 1)

Allocation:
Conservatives win the first seat (Brynle Williams elected)
Liberal Democrats win the second seat (Eleanor Burnham elected)
Plaid Cymru win the third seat (Janet Ryder elected)
Conservatives win the fourth seat (Mark Isherwood elected)
British National Party would have won any fifth seat with a lead of 1,347.5 over Labour

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We have a poll...

Constituency: Labour 42, Plaid 20, Con 19, LDem 12
List: Labour 40, Con 20, Plaid 19, LDem 12

Labour would win a majority on those figures. Also...

Referendum: Yes 55, No 28, Don't Know 17

YouGov/ITV Wales.

The record of Welsh polling is, of course, less than entirely great and the election isn't until next May, so a degree of caution would not be misplaced.

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency Results (based on above poll)
Labour 42.93% (+10.74% on 2007) winning 30 seats (+6 seats)
Conservatives 20.03% (-2.33% ) winning 1 seat (-4 seats)
Plaid Cymru 19.25% (-3.15%) winning 6 seats (-1 seat)
Liberal Democrats 13.12% (-1.54%) winning 3 seats (unchanged(
Independents 3.31% (-2.57%) winning 0 seats (-1 seat)
Others 1.32% (-0.03%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)

Constituency GAINS
Blaenau Gwent (from Ind)
Cardiff North (from Con)
Carmarthen West (from Con)
Clwyd West (from Con)
Llanelli (from Plaid)
Preseli, Pembrokeshire (from Con)

Constituency Near Misses
Plaid HOLD Aberconwy (Plaid 34% Lab 30% Con 28%)
Lib Dems HOLD Montgomeryshire (Lib Dem 39% Con 30%)
Plaid HOLD Arfon (Plaid 46% Lab 36%)

Regional Lists
Wales South Central: Con 2 (n/c) Plaid 2 (n/c)
Mid and West Wales: Con 3 (+2) Plaid 1 (n/c)
Wales North: Con 3 (+1) Lib Dem 1 (n/c)
Wales South East: Con 1 (n/c) Lab 1 (+1) Lib Dem 1 (n/c) Plaid 1 (-1)
Wales South West: Con 1 (n/c) Lib Dem 1 (n/c) Plaid 2 (n/c)

Forecast Assembly Composition
Labour 31 (+5)
Plaid Cymru 12 (-3)
Conservatives 11 (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6 (n/c)

If that is the case, and the Liberal Democrats win six Assembly members for the fourth election in a row, then I for one will put forward the case that the Lib Dems contest the LIST seats only.

[You kip if you want to...]

Lib Dems HOLD Montgomeryshire (Lib Dem 39% Con 30%)

Does Lembit losing imply rough seas ahead for the Liberals at assembly level?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lib Dems HOLD Montgomeryshire (Lib Dem 39% Con 30%)

Does Lembit losing imply rough seas ahead for the Liberals at assembly level?

Opik's (deserved) defeat was entirely his own doing. However there may be other problems...

Also, there were some ominous shifts towards the Tories in the Montgomery towns in the 2008 locals; Tories won the most seats in Newtown which had been the LibDem stronghold in Montgomery from the Alex Carlile era onwards (before then the main Liberal stronghold was in the extremely rural west; where they've obviously lost a lot support to Plaid in recent years).

[MaxQue]

Could you please write "Wales" or "Welsh" somewhere in the title? Plenty of places have National Assemblies and it is confusing.

[JoeBrayson]

Here are my constituency predictions

Mid & West Wales
Brecon & Radnorshire (LibDem HOLD)
Carmarthen East (Plaid HOLD)
Carmarthen West (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Ceridigion (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Dywfor Merionydd (Plaid HOLD)
Llanelli (Lab GAIN from Plaid)
Montgomeryshire (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Preseli Pembrokeshire (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)

North Wales
Aberconwy (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Alyn & Deeside (Lab HOLD)
Arfon (Plaid HOLD)
Clywd South (Lab HOLD)
Clwyd West (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Delyn (Lab HOLD)
Vale of Clywd (Lab HOLD)
Wrexham (Lab HOLD)
Ynys Mon (Plaid HOLD)

South Central Wales
Cardiff Central (Lab GAIN from LibDem)
Cardiff North (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)
Cardiff South & Penarth (Lab HOLD)
Cardiff West (Lab HOLD)
Cynon Valley (Lab HOLD)
Pontypridd (Lab HOLD)
Rhondaa (Lab HOLD)
Vale of Glamorgan (TOO CLOSE TO CALL)

South East Wales
Blaenau Gwent (Lab GAIN from Ind)
Caerphlly (Lab HOLD)
Islwyn (Lab HOLD)
Merthyr Tydfill (Lab HOLD)
Monmouth (Con HOLD)
Neath (Lab HOLD)
Newport East (Lab HOLD)
Newport West (Lab HOLD)
Torfean (Lab HOLD)

South West Wales
Aberavon (Lab HOLD)
Bridgend (Lab HOLD)
Gower (Lab HOLD)
Ogmore (Lab HOLD)
Swansea East (Lab HOLD)
Swansea West (Lab HOLD)

Total Breakdown of Seats
Lab = 26
Plaid = 4
LD = 1
Con = 1
Too Close To Call = 8

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New YouGov/ITV Wales poll shows a similar pattern to the last one with all changes within MoE...

Constituency: Labour 40, Plaid 22, Con 20, LDem 13, Other 5
List: Labour 37, Plaid 20, Con 20, LDem 14, UKIP 4, Green 2, SLP 1, BNP 1

Regional breakdowns (laughably high MoE, not to be taken seriously, posted only for amusement)...

North: Labour 31, Plaid 29, Con 22, LDem 14
Mid & West: Plaid 34, Labour 27, Con 23, LDem 9
South West: Labour 39, Con 23, Plaid 22, LDem 12
South Central: Labour 51, LDem 20, Con 18, Plaid 10
South East: Labour 50, Con 18, Plaid 15, LDem 11

Referendum poll shows a much tighter race than the last one: Yes 48, No 34, Dunno 14

Plaid voters are shown as being overwhelming in favour, Labour voters as mostly in favour, LibDems not sure and Tories strongly against.

---

Usual remarks about the problems of Welsh polling inserted here.

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency GAINS
Labour GAIN Clwyd West, Preseli, Carmarthen West and Blaenau Gwent

Near Misses (5% or less)
Cardiff North: Lab miss by 458 votes (1.32%)
Llanelli: Lab miss by 1,150 votes (3.78%)

Regional Lists
South Wales Central: 1 Con, 2 Plaid, 1 Lib Dem
Mid and West Wales: 3 Con, 1 Lab
North Wales: 3 Con, 1 Lib Dem
South Wales East: 1 Con, 2 Plaid, 1 Lib Dem
South Wales West: 2 Plaid, 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem

Composition of Assembly (and change on 2007)
Labour 28 constituencies (+4) and 1 regional (-1) = 29 AM's (+3)
Plaid Cymru 7 constituencies (-1) and 6 regionals (-1) = 13 AM's (-2)
Conservatives 2 constituencies (-3) and 9 regionals (+2) = 11 AM's (-1)
Liberal Democrats 3 constituencies (n/c) and 4 regionals (+1) = 7 AM's (+1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People's Voice has effectively disbanded, fwiw. It's not been formally disbanded, but it won't run official candidates in elections anymore.

[minionofmidas]

So will Law run for reelection as an indy, or not at all?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So will Law run for reelection as an indy, or not at all?

I'm not sure if she's said anything on the subject, but it's rumoured that she won't run again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So will Law run for reelection as an indy, or not at all?

I'm not sure if she's said anything on the subject, but it's rumoured that she won't run again.

She's just announced that she intends to run next year. Not entirely convinced that she actually will, but it now seems more likely than not.

[JoeBrayson]

Doesn't really matter if she does run, Labour should gain this with a majority of several thousand.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another poll (YouGov/ITV Wales, again).

Constituency: Llafur 39%, Plaid 23%, Tories 22%, LibDems 10%
List: Llafur 39%, Plaid 23%, Tories 21%, LibDems 9%

MoE changes for Labour from the last poll (down a tiny amount on constituency, up a little on list), Plaid and the Tories, poor for the LibDems. Usual remarks about the problems with Welsh polling, etc.

(Llafur, btw, is a very pretty word)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, she has decided that she won't be running. And has said so in public, so it's basically final.

[You kip if you want to...]

(Llafur, btw, is a very pretty word)

How's it pronounced? Like Laugher?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Llafur, btw, is a very pretty word)

How's it pronounced? Like Laugher?

Ll is, of course, the famous 'll' sound, a is what you'd expect, 'f' is 'v' and 'ur' is 'ir' (but not quite).

[afleitch]

(Llafur, btw, is a very pretty word)

How's it pronounced? Like Laugher?

Ll is, of course, the famous 'll' sound, a is what you'd expect, 'f' is 'v' and 'ur' is 'ir' (but not quite).

I prefer Làbarach....not thats not right I prefer Tòraidheachd

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gareth Jones (Plaid, Aberconwy) is to retire. He's 71 so it's not really a surprise, but it's a bit of a blow for Plaid all the same; only reason he won in 2007 was his personal vote.

[Harry Hayfield]

Gareth Jones (Plaid, Aberconwy) is to retire. He's 71 so it's not really a surprise, but it's a bit of a blow for Plaid all the same; only reason he won in 2007 was his personal vote.

Aberconwy 2007
Gareth Jones, Plaid     7983   38.56%
Dylan Jones-Evans, Con     6290   30.38%
Denise Idris Jones AM, Lab     4508   21.77%
Euron Hughes, Lib Dem     1918    9.26%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you still have the list figures?

[minionofmidas]

Dylan Jones-Evans, Con     6290   30.38%

Cool name.