Political impact of OBL tape?

[Silent Hunter]

Commentator from Time on the Beeb said it was a zero-sum event and I agree.

Bush and Kerry will not gain or lose anything from this.

[Friar]

Impact?

Zero

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Commentator from Time on the Beeb said it was a zero-sum event and I agree.

Bush and Kerry will not gain or lose anything from this.

I can't see anyone gaining from this... both candidates were off the starting blocks when it came to attacking the tape *very* quickly... the race is obviously too close to play silly buggers with a grainy tape.

[dazzleman]

One thing that hasn't been talked about is the fact that the tape, unlike any previous tapes, contained a semblance of a conciliatory message among all the hate.

Also, UBL looks about 75 years old, though he is really only 45 years old.

It seemed as if he is, in his own way, suing for peace.  He obviously hasn't been able to pull off attacks inside the US in over 3 years, and this tape is a cheap substitute for what he really wanted to do, which is stage a devastating attack on the US before the election.

My theory is that UBL wants Kerry to be elected because he senses that, whatever the rhetoric from Kerry, a Democrat will be softer on terror than a Republican will.  At the same time, Bush is such a hated figure among bin Laden's followers that it probably makes recruiting easier.  But of course, bin Laden had no problem recruiting even before Bush was president.

Bin Laden may think that by taking a conciliatory (for him) tone with the American people, he makes more likely the election of an accomodationist (Kerry) rather than a hardliner (Bush).

This is not a man who understands US politics.  He expected the Sept. 11th attacks to lead the US to crumble, and the opposite has really happened - we went on the offensive in a way that we never would have in the absence of the attacks, and the effect on al-Qaeda has been devastating.  If he wished this tape to help Kerry, the real result will probably be the opposite, to a modest degree.

[Umengus]

In Europe, some analysts are saying that Ben LAden wants a Bush victory because the terrorist policy of Bush is a failure (because Ben LAden is free). Hence, they are saying that this tape must give a Bush advantage.

I think that the effect is not clear: It could be good for Kerry because Ben Laden is still alive and Bush doesn't succeed to kill or capture him. But it could be good for Bush because it's the come back of the terrorist treath and Bush is better on Terrorism than Kerry. But maybe that this tape will strike the ability of Bush to fight against terrorism. Wait and see next polls...


But I think that the Kerry reaction was good: he had to attack Bush if not it was a bounce for Bush.

[Giant Saguaro]

We'll soon see, I don't know.

But I would strongly disagree with anyone who would say it's an endorsement of Bush or an attempt to push people into voting for Bush. UBL and his org have been crippled like never before. They want a President who thinks peace and negotiation first because that sort of foreign policy afforded them the chances and opportunities to organize, arm, and spread their hatred in the first place. UBL clearly does not want Bush. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Both Bush and Kerry are resolute in their determination to win the war against terror. Don't let Bin Laden determine how you vote one notch.

Forget the spin! This tape neither endorses Bush nor Kerry.

If this in itself has any significant impact on the election, Bin Laden will delight in it! Don't give him the satisfaction.

Dave

[patrick1]

Helps Bush slightly.  Anytime the conversation turns to the War on Terror it is in Bush's interests.  Polls consistently show that Bush is trusted more to handle terrorism.

[Umengus]

Helps Bush slightly.  Anytime the conversation turns to the War on Terror it is in Bush's interests.  Polls consistently show that Bush is trusted more to handle terrorism.

ok but the apparition of Ben Laden just before the election is not an illustration that Bush is not very good on terrorism?

[Democratic Hawk]

Helps Bush slightly.  Anytime the conversation turns to the War on Terror it is in Bush's interests.  Polls consistently show that Bush is trusted more to handle terrorism.

Doesn't the fact that Bin Laden remains at-large not reflect badly on the administration?

Dave

[patrick1]

He may be on the loose but there have been no attackson US soil since 9/11.  You can argue that they shouldn't but the fact remains that: Americans trust Bush more on War on Terror.  Whenever the conversation turns to Terrorism, Bush wins. 

[Serenity Now]

this tape is a cheap substitute for what he really wanted to do, which is stage a devastating attack on the US before the election.

I agree.

This is not a man who understands US politics.  He expected the Sept. 11th attacks to lead the US to crumble, and the opposite has really happened - we went on the offensive in a way that we never would have in the absence of the attacks, and the effect on al-Qaeda has been devastating.  If he wished this tape to help Kerry, the real result will probably be the opposite, to a modest degree.

But I do disagree about that. Nobody, not even Bin Laden, would ever seriously believe for a minute that a direct attack on United States soil would not be met by a military response (that WOULD have happened under Gore). Even if he would like the US to crumble, it would be the last thing he'd seriously expect. He must've hoped the US going on the offensive would spark a "holy war" (some might say it has, but I don't REALLY think so) ending in the crubling of the US (he's insane enough to think that). Of course he will never, ever win, but it's still possible he could do some pretty serious damage. I don't think it really makes much difference.

I think this video has been done to see Kerry's response, he's trying to test the man who might be his new no.1 enemy come Tuesday. Lets hope that he shall have no influence over his election either way.

[Giant Saguaro]

I remember, and maybe it's just me, almost from day 1, the administration saying that it's Al-Qaeda we're after, it's Al-Qaeda that we want to smash, and if we run into UBL along the way, we have some for him too. He's symbolic and they'd love to get him, and I would love to to see our guys nail him and nail him hard, but Al-Qaeda is THE objective. I don't want our forces chasing UBL's rear end all over creation and up and down the mountains while his hellions are running rampant. Just my view.

[J. J.]

He may be on the loose but there have been no attackson US soil since 9/11.  You can argue that they shouldn't but the fact remains that: Americans trust Bush more on War on Terror.  Whenever the conversation turns to Terrorism, Bush wins. 

I agree.  It's Halloween, and the county just got a scare.  It's not much of one, but it will nudge a few people to Bush and safety.

It also knocked Kerry off message for a few hours and crowded out his attacks.  It's an overall net gain for Bush, but not much of one.

[opebo]

Bin Laden looked to be in great shape, good health, and has obviously been living in comfort with good food and decent medical care.  So much for hunting him down eh?

[Bogart]

He may be on the loose but there have been no attackson US soil since 9/11.  You can argue that they shouldn't but the fact remains that: Americans trust Bush more on War on Terror.  Whenever the conversation turns to Terrorism, Bush wins. 

Exactly. If there is an advantage to be gained for either candidate by the release of this tape, it is for Bush. It's been said many times before, but it still rings true. If voters go to the polls thinking about domestic issues or, to a lesser extent, Iraq--advantage Kerry. If the go to the polls thinking about terroism, bin Laden and security--advantage Bush. Every poll out there shows Bush enjoys in the neighborhood of a 15-20 point advantage on terror.

It's easy to say that Kerry might gain an advantage because bin Laden is still on the loose, but I think that's a tough sell. To do so he would have to politicize the hell out of the video and the threats made on it. That risks backlash and is not something he is likely to do. Even Bush is going to stand a comfortable distance from the threats and let the media do this for him.

It's difficult to see what bin Laden's motives were. Some say he wants Bush re-elected because it makes recruiting easier. I think that's a stretch. More likely, I think he doesn't understand American politics as well as he thinks he does. I think he figures the spectre of another attack will scare Americans into voting for a more conciliatory administration--a la Spain. I think just the opposite will be true.

I also think that the tape was a poor substitute for the actual attack that he and his organization would have liked to stage, but are unable to.