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Author Topic: NM GOP Primary--Weh, Martinez lead competition  (Read 682 times)
King
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« on: May 18, 2010, 12:05:50 am »
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This seat is lean Dem to strong Dem, but still, GOP primary is in a couple of weeks and of interest (to me [and WMS if he's still around]).

A recap of the candidates,:  Of the five, Martinez probably has the best chance against Lt. Governor Diane Denish (who is running unopposed in Dem primaries) as the de facto Hispanic candidate in a two way race.  Domenici, Jr. has name recognition, but otherwise no political experience to fall back on.  Weh is the most conservative, but against a moderate like Denish that may not be a good thing.  Turner is a Gary Johnson psuedo-libertarian tea party cronie and Arnold-Jones is a joke.



        * Allen Weh: 31 percent
        * Susana Martinez: 30 percent
        * Pete Domenici, Jr.: 10 percent
        * Doug Turner: 6 percent
        * Janice Arnold-Jones: 3 percent

    Poll of 503 likely Republican voters from May 11-13 by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal with a MOE of +/- 4.4 percent (no link as Journal is paid site)
« Last Edit: May 18, 2010, 12:08:07 am by New World Order »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2010, 12:10:25 am »
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Want Martinez to win this to get a lady race.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2010, 12:38:52 am »
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Want Martinez to win this to get a lady race.

Oh, yes, I almost forgot.  She would also cancel out any potential "first woman governor" vote advantage for Denish and coming from a border county she also could do a spirited debate on the immigration issue.

Definitely the strongest candidate for the GOP.
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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2010, 12:41:09 am »
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Want Martinez to win this to get a lady race.

No. The last thing we need is for the GOP to nomiante more minroity candidates. They're supposed to be portrayed as the old white party.
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2010, 05:20:18 am »
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Want Martinez to win this to get a lady race.

So much for gender equality, hm?
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2010, 11:30:38 am »
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This seat is lean Dem to strong Dem, but still, GOP primary is in a couple of weeks and of interest (to me [and WMS if he's still around]).

Yep, lurking from work from time to time. Smiley

I pretty much agree with your analysis, although from what I've heard Weh has got more detailed plans of what he wants to do if he wins - basically, kick down the doors in state government...which, given what a corrupt, inefficient, patronage-choked edifice it is - especially under Richardson's pay-to-play policies Wink - would be fun to watch. ^_^ However, Martinez would likely play better in the election. I'm a bit surprised Turner didn't get more traction, but so much for his expenditures, I suppose.

You should have mentioned the Lt. Governor race on the Rep side, King Wink (I'm pulling for Kent Cravens there) and the five-way race on the Dem side for certain (Lawrence Rael is the best of that lot). But that would be a different thread, I suppose - I'd be curious what you thought of the various candidates in these races.

However, Denish is very much the favorite no matter what. Now, she's a party hack to the core, but at least she's not one of those wretched norteno Democrats who infest the government here. So it would be a different group of people getting jobs they're not qualified for at $75000+/year, etc. Tongue

The Democrats here don't really deserve another eight years in power after the record they've accumulated, but I don't see the Republicans being able to stop them - they've got their own competency and ideological issues, and they are outmatched by the political machine run by the PRI Democratic Party of New Mexico. The Democrats may not be the best at governing here, but they're very good at winning elections. Cheesy

I'm more curious about the Land Commissioner race - I'm certain the candidate I like the most on the Dem side, Harry Montoya, will lose to the Greenie Ray Powell. Tongue The Rep side I'm hoping Matthew Rush wins, because Bob Cornelius emanates 'party hack who has never held a real job'...

...just like the empty-suit pretty-boy party hack Martin Heinrich. Of course I remember that discussion, King. I was right about him. Cheesy
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2010, 11:38:52 am »
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This seat is lean Dem to strong Dem, but still, GOP primary is in a couple of weeks and of interest (to me [and WMS if he's still around]).

Yep, lurking from work from time to time. Smiley

I pretty much agree with your analysis, although from what I've heard Weh has got more detailed plans of what he wants to do if he wins - basically, kick down the doors in state government...which, given what a corrupt, inefficient, patronage-choked edifice it is - especially under Richardson's pay-to-play policies Wink - would be fun to watch. ^_^ However, Martinez would likely play better in the election. I'm a bit surprised Turner didn't get more traction, but so much for his expenditures, I suppose.

You should have mentioned the Lt. Governor race on the Rep side, King Wink (I'm pulling for Kent Cravens there) and the five-way race on the Dem side for certain (Lawrence Rael is the best of that lot). But that would be a different thread, I suppose - I'd be curious what you thought of the various candidates in these races.

However, Denish is very much the favorite no matter what. Now, she's a party hack to the core, but at least she's not one of those wretched norteno Democrats who infest the government here. So it would be a different group of people getting jobs they're not qualified for at $75000+/year, etc. Tongue

The Democrats here don't really deserve another eight years in power after the record they've accumulated, but I don't see the Republicans being able to stop them - they've got their own competency and ideological issues, and they are outmatched by the political machine run by the PRI Democratic Party of New Mexico. The Democrats may not be the best at governing here, but they're very good at winning elections. Cheesy

I'm more curious about the Land Commissioner race - I'm certain the candidate I like the most on the Dem side, Harry Montoya, will lose to the Greenie Ray Powell. Tongue The Rep side I'm hoping Matthew Rush wins, because Bob Cornelius emanates 'party hack who has never held a real job'...

...just like the empty-suit pretty-boy party hack Martin Heinrich. Of course I remember that discussion, King. I was right about him. Cheesy

WMS!!!!!!

Grin Cheesy Grin Cheesy Grin *hughughughughughughughughug* Grin Cheesy Grin Cheesy Grin
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2010, 11:40:29 am »
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WMS!!!!!!

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Why hi there ILV. ^_^ *hughughughughug* I pretty much lurk because there isn't much worth responding to these days. Tongue
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2010, 11:47:24 am »
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Off-topic (WMS) - What do you think are the chances Barela has of taking out Heinrich this year?

EDIT:  Forgot - yes Southern New Mexico does need its free jobs too....
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King
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2010, 12:12:03 pm »
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Hola, WMS!

It's true.  Denish is from the wing of the Democratic Party that's actually there to instill Democratic policies and not just ensure her home county gets all its roads paved.  Although, being from Hobbs, I expect her to take plenty of liberties to big agriculture.  That goes without saying, however.

Sad part about poor states like NM is that government becomes the Wall Street of their economies as the only organization making any real money so corruption is rampant.

I've only casually glanced at the candidates for Lt. Governor.  I agree that Rael and Cravens are probably the best choices; it's always best to have people who govern from Albuquerque as its the area of the state most in touch with the real world.  Colon might also be a good choice on the Dem side.  It'll probably be Campos and Sanchez, sadly.

Honestly, Lt. Gov has only been an important position these past few years because our last two Governors had strange national ambitions and were never home.  I don't see that happening to any of these potential Governors.

I agree the Republicans should win, but they're even more disorganized and out of touch.  If they had any sort of clue, they'd have nominated Wilson for Senate in 08 and Turner for Governor in 10 and align themselves behind a conservativey populist platform.  Instead, they're letting corrupt tools like the Domenici family hang around, practically disowned Gary Johnson as if he wasn't the only sound statewide victory they've had in the past 20 years, and jumped right into the pocket of oil & gas.  While it's true O&G has the campaign $$$, New Mexicans--for all their faults--have always managed to see right through their advertising and recognize big oil pawns when they see them.

The Land Commissioner race is unfolding as it always does.  Dem Primary = local Hispanos who doesn't really know what the hell Land Commissioner does but want to get into statewide elected office vs. dreamer Santa Fe environmentalists; oddly a longshot crazy Native American candidate who wants to save his mother land didn't show up this year.  GOP Primary = random "party chair and conservative activist" nobody has ever heard of yet everyone inexplicably likes vs. dairy farmer vs. oil industry lobbyist in a cheap suit.

A Hispano usually wins the Dem primary, farmer wins the GOP primary, and farmer wins the general.

And as for Heinrich.... welll.... Tongue  I didn't really like him so much as I hated Darren White.  If Heather Wilson wants that seat back, she could probably get it.  It looks like we got a Green Party candidate this year! Those guys are always a load of fun.

Off-topic (WMS) - What do you think are the chances Barela has of taking out Heinrich this year?

That seat is always the incumbent's to lose, even if the polls are close.  As I said above, there's a Green Party candidate this year so that may hurt Heinrich just enough to get the GOP in office.  Barela's last name always helps with dumb undecided voters, too.
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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2010, 12:13:43 pm »
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Off-topic (WMS) - What do you think are the chances Barela has of taking out Heinrich this year?

EDIT:  Forgot - yes Southern New Mexico does need its free jobs too....

Not as good as I'd like them to be - the district seems to have swung a bit to the left, although making judgments based on two anomalous election years (2006 was an anti-Bush Iraq War year, 2008 was an OMG-the-economy-imploded-and-its-all-the-fault-of-the-Republicans year) is risky. Heinrich is definitely favored by virtue of being the incumbent Democrat, although he's been a rather unimpressive leftist Pelosi clone. Now, Barela might do better than expected - if the GOP will give him some damn money - but national atmosphere will, I think, really make a difference here. So my shooting-from-the-hip estimate is that it's not impossible for Barela to win, but it will be tough. I know, not that useful, but at least I'm not going off about how it's a D+whatever district that is impossible for Reps to win back or about how Scott Brown means Barela has it in the bag. Tongue In terms of state atmospheric factors...hard to be certain, but Richardson's last few years have been a drumbeat of scandal and inefficiency, and that might spill over a bit. Worth keeping an eye on, of course. Smiley

Of course! Patronage R' Us, that's the New Mexico way! Cheesy
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2010, 01:05:12 pm »
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Hola, King! ^_^

Heh, not just getting your home county's roads paved, but hiring a tenth of your county in special exempt state government positions making lots of (by NM standards, people, settle down) money, THAT is the core of that wing of the state Dems. Wink Well, of course Denish will do that - especially in regards to what you said about the dairies in the Pearce vs. Teague race. Smiley Me, I like Teague, the one member of the 5 in Congress from NM that I do, but I think he's not making it this time. Sad

That's a really good point. I'd like to add to that my observation: the PRI Democratic Party of New Mexico's machine prefers matters this way. They want New Mexicans to remain both poor and dependent on government support, because then New Mexicans will keep voting for Democrats to keep the government support flowing to them, and thus a solid cycle is in place. A thriving private sector would be a threat to their power base, and thus is discouraged. Yes, that's rather cynical, but I came to that conclusion a long time ago upon looking at how this state is run. Wink

Hmm, I hadn't thought of it like that, but Albuquerque is the most connected part of the state, isn't it? I was going off of candidate quality and ideology. Smiley Which is why I oppose Colon - I haven't forgotten how he refused to take responsibility for the issues with the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary and threw some poor female underling under the bus on that. He's basically a little s#!+. Angry But anyway, in classic NM fashion, I expect the primaries to pick people I dislike intensely, per the usual. Tongue

Well, you never know Wink but, agreed, I can't see any of the gubernatorial candidates running for higher office any time soon. I am immensely amused at how, with a southern Anglo Democrat on the ticket, ALL the Lt. Governor candidates are Hispanic Democrats, from no further south than Albuquerque. Just coincidental, I'm sure. Cheesy

'Disorganized and out of touch' explains a lot of the GOP's past decade here. Wink YES, Wilson for Senate in 08 would have been a much smarter move, but the Club for Growth - and its cheerleaders like Keystone Phil Tongue - wanted a rightie. I hope they enjoyed their 20+ point a$$-kicking. ^_- I'm not so sure about Turner - although he has some interesting ideas and experience - he's not that different from the others Wink but tapping into public discontent here would be a smart move, because you'd have to be an idiot to associate the establishment with the Republicans in this state. Cheesy To be fair, the Domenicis are really influential by virtue of all those years in the Senate, and Gary Johnson went off in interesting directions - OK, decriminalizing pot is something a lot of people are willing to discuss (including Darren White, actually), but making ALL drugs illegal is way out there. Shocked Johnson won because of the anti-Democratic wave in 1994 coupled with severe internal splits in the NM Democratic Party that year (Bruce King vs Casey Luna vs JIm Baca vs Roberto Mondragon), and in 1998 I have it on good authority that Martin Chavez had made some enemies in the NM Democratic apparatus who, err, weren't that interested in him winning. Wink I'll note a district drop in vote totals on that race in particular precincts in Bernalillo County. Cheesy O&G is always very tricky, because SO much of the state government budget in NM relies upon revenues from it. So it's rather hypocritical for the Dems to condemn it on the one hand while turning around and spending its dollars like water on pet projects and tax cuts and the like (all of which has caused a lot of budget problems once the O&G market dropped off...). If you're going to turn against O&G, you'd better grow some other source of revenue first. Smiley Otherwise the Dem pawns look like hypocrites (whereas the Rep pawns are more open about all this Wink ). TL;DR for the oil bit: if you're going to reduce the influence of O&G, then don't rely so heavily on it for your government budget. Tongue

Amusing Land Commissioner description. Wink Although the dreamer environmentalist is likely to win out on the Dem side this time, and is from Albuquerque to boot! Then again, so was the last Dem candidate, but Albuquerque hasn't forgiven Jim Baca for his tenure as Mayor yet. Cheesy And I know who you are referring about with the Native American, although I have forgotten his name. Smiley On the GOP side the 'random "party chair and conservative activist" nobody has ever heard of yet everyone inexplicably likes' guy is there, but the other guy is instead a rancher from Portales, so that's new. Cheesy

So who wins the general this time, the Albuquerque environmentalist with previous experience in the job, or the cattle rancher from Portales? Tongue I notice Lyons won two terms against first a corrupt Hispano hack (Art Trujillo?! Seriously?!) and then the aforementioned dreamer environmentalist from Albuquerque (Jim Baca - wait, Ray Powell LOST to him in the Primary in 2006?! WTF?!), so this race tends to generate some odd outcomes.

Tongue I'm very, very, unimpressed with Heinrich. Not one shred of independent thought in his skull. Angry Hell, I didn't like Darren White either, but in a lesser-of-two-evils situation... Oh, I'd love to see Heather back here, but I think she's got something else in mind, and no, I don't know what it is. Smiley Ooh, really? GO GREENIE GO! Maybe they can pull 10-15% of the vote again! Cheesy And I said my other reflections on this race already, so have nothing more to add...
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2010, 03:02:37 pm »
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
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