Giuliani to visit NH

[Mr. Morden]

Make of it what you will:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37324.html

[Mr. Morden]

     I strongly dislike Giuliani's policies, but I must say it would be interesting to see him run again. I cannot think of another candidate who polled so strongly for so long, yet was ultimately so irrelevant to the outcome of the campaign. Maybe he would hire more competent advisors the second time around, but I also suspect his brand might be rather...damaged from his dismal 2008 run.

He had a bad strategy but if the RNC gets its way in 2012, then waiting for the big states isn't a bad idea for him.

     Waiting out the early primaries would still kill him, because you need to be at least competing in the early contests or else people will stop taking your candidacy seriously. Now if he could get states like NY & NJ to move their primaries up to the front of the schedule, he might have a fighting chance.

Very true. What I'm saying though is that it won't make a difference if the big states all vote on the same day which is what the GOP wants in 2012.

The RNC is making no such effort to get all the big states to vote on one day.

[Mr. Morden]

big states, small states, early states I believe are the 3 sets.

Um, I believe you're talking about the Ohio Plan, which is deader than dead.  The only change the RNC is making to the calendar is trying to push the whole thing a month later, with IA, NH, NV, and SC voting in February, and everyone else voting in March-June.  But there's no longer any effort to organize the other 46 states into groups voting on the same day.  That'd be left to the individual states to work out.

In fact, the push start things a month later will itself probably fail, because many states will violate the rule, and the RNC won't sanction them harshly enough to change their behavior.