lidaker
Jr. Member
Posts: 746
Political Matrix E: 0.88, S: -4.67
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« on: October 30, 2004, 08:11:00 PM » |
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« edited: October 30, 2004, 08:17:29 PM by lidaker »
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Latest five (likely voters, three-man race, only respectable pollsters - not university polls, Zogby, LA Times, BOT, "Scripps" and stuff):
MAINE, CD 2 (1) My estimate: Kerry +0-1%
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4) Kerry +0,2%
PENNSYLVANIA (21) Kerry +3,0%
OHIO (20) Bush +0,6%
FLORIDA (27) Bush +1,8%
WISCONSIN (10) Bush +3,2%
MINNESOTA (10) Bush +1,4%
IOWA (7) Bush +3,0%
NEW MEXICO (5) Bush +1,8%
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Bush starts with 227 EVs (including West Virginia, Nevada etc.), Kerry starts with 206 EVs (including Michigan, Oregon, New Jersey, Hawaii etc.)
How to win if you're John Kerry:
1. Hold Pennsylvania (21) 2. Win both Ohio (20) and Florida (27) 3. If not, win either Ohio or Florida 4. If Ohio, add 23 EVs from remaining battlegrounds: Maine CD2 (1), New Hampshire (4), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5) 5. If Florida, add 16 EVs from remaining battlegrounds
Seems like a difficult task
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