Averages from State Polls
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  Averages from State Polls
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lidaker
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« on: October 30, 2004, 08:11:00 PM »
« edited: October 30, 2004, 08:17:29 PM by lidaker »

Latest five (likely voters, three-man race, only respectable pollsters - not university polls, Zogby, LA Times, BOT, "Scripps" and stuff):

MAINE, CD 2 (1)
My estimate:
Kerry +0-1%

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4)
Kerry +0,2%

PENNSYLVANIA (21)
Kerry +3,0%

OHIO (20)
Bush +0,6%

FLORIDA (27)
Bush +1,8%

WISCONSIN (10)
Bush +3,2%

MINNESOTA (10)
Bush +1,4%

IOWA (7)
Bush +3,0%

NEW MEXICO (5)
Bush +1,8%

- - -

Bush starts with 227 EVs (including West Virginia, Nevada etc.), Kerry starts with 206 EVs (including Michigan, Oregon, New Jersey, Hawaii etc.)

How to win if you're John Kerry:

1. Hold Pennsylvania (21)
2. Win both Ohio (20) and Florida (27)
3. If not, win either Ohio or Florida
4. If Ohio, add 23 EVs from remaining battlegrounds: Maine CD2 (1), New Hampshire (4), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5)
5. If Florida, add 16 EVs from remaining battlegrounds

Seems like a difficult task
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